PBP - Probiotec

[macduffy]

Not too many seem to be watching this stock.

NPAT up 41% in another strong performance.

SP now $2-45!

[macduffy]

Not too many seem to be watching this stock.

NPAT up 41% in another strong performance.

SP now $2-45!

Probably the most impressive aspect of this result is that Probiotic have increased their Gross Margin to a heady 50.8%!

Can any company beat that?

[Footsie]

under continuous disclosure these guys should get a slap on the wrist.
they forecast profit growht of at least 20% and did 41%

That's more than the +/- 15% from forecast. and they didnt disclose. Thats part of why i sold out......

I was thinking EPS of 15c and they did 19c

so Not holding personaly at the moment. shame.

good story. I'd like to buy back in on any weakness.

I note they have said the same for 2010... at least 20%..... they have made this statement 3 years running now!!!!

[macduffy]

Fair point there, Footsie.

Still, it's nice to see a company being conservative in its forecasts and then beating them handsomely.

[macduffy]

A disappointing announcement from PBP today to the effect that they are raising new capital by a placement to institutions at a discount to the current SP.
Directors and senior management are also selling down a portion of their holdings in the placement.

This disregard for other shareholders is becoming too prevalent these days. Might have to re-think my interest in PBP.

[macduffy]

PBP came out with an impressive interim today - at least on the face of it.

But the NPAT of $6.2m - up from last year's $4.2m was boosted by Other Income which included "Loans Foregiven" of $4.089m. While this was disclosed in the Notes to the accounts there was no further explanation or mention of it in the commentary.

So I'm out of PBP today. One too many question marks as far as I'm concerned.

[Footsie]

As usual

all the information was in the price

A question for phaedrus would have been when would the sell trigger have first occured.

probably way back when the CEO sold down....
or the last signal was a break of the uptrend at the beginnig of jan.

[Phaedrus]

As usual all the information was in the price

Yup. That's dangerous, provocative TA talk Footsie!

When would the sell trigger have first occured......

The Bearish divergence was the first indication of weakness. Some might have sold on that alone, but generally it is best to wait for confirmation before acting.

....probably way back when the CEO sold down.....

So, that huge red spike (depicting "smart money" getting out) was the CEO!!!!! How smart was that! Anyone seeing/knowing this and doing nothing should not be surprised at their subsequent losses. This sale also broke the OBV trendline giving another sell signal, but I have lumped both together as number 2.

The last signal was a break of the uptrend at the beginnig of Jan.

Not really. Use of the usual logarithmic price scale brings that trendline break forward more than 2 months to October. The last signal shown here was number 6 - the Slow stochastic Oscillator which fired on 3/11/09 giving an exit at $2.46. The first 5 signals gave much higher exit points, averaging over $2.60.

[Footsie]

Thanks
its amazing how on the small stocks the smart money is often a major trigger time and time again. obviously information leaks to the large "smart" holders

how do you know whether to use linear or log?

[Phaedrus]

How do you know whether to use linear or log price scales?

First choice should always be log. Very occasionally linear is better if it gives more points of contact. Over small price ranges it makes little or no difference either way.