PBP - Probiotec

[drillfix]

First choice should always be log. Very occasionally linear is better if it gives more points of contact. Over small price ranges it makes little or no difference either way.

Hi Phaedrus,

When you say occasionally, in what reference do you mean, on daily, intra-day, weekly etc? or can you advise what actually is the benefit of each one?

[Phaedrus]

Always use a log price scale unless a linear one gives more points of contact. This doesn't happen very often.

Stocks in a linear uptrend give a straight trendline with a log price scale.

Stocks in a decelerating uptrend give a straighter trendline with a linear price scale.

[drillfix]

Thanks Phaedrus,

I checked it out to see the difference but I only seem to see the candles becoming smaller when choosing Log, plus the change seems to shift all the candles up or back down on a chart when toggling between the two.

[Phaedrus]

The choice of a linear or log price scale can make a very big difference, Drillfix.
Here is the PBP chart using a linear price scale.
See how the trendline has fewer points of contact than the log chart one. (More points = better)
The linear chart trendline break was nearly 2 months later and quite a lot lower than that of the log chart.
Instead of being at number 4, right in the middle of many other indicator signals, the trendline break came in at number 7, well after all the others and last by a long shot.

The downtrend continues. They have a nasty habit of doing that.

[drillfix]

Thanks again Phaedrus~!

[thereslifeafter87]

PBP is potentially looking cheap now. They expect significant revenue uplift this year as they have added a number of new distribution points for their products in the UK, will get the full impact of their asian distribution, and have acquired a number of new brands - as well as the 50% of Celebrity Slim they did not already own.

Issuing shares in the high $2 has turned out to be a brilliant play, but their performance since then has definitely not endeared them to institutions who are probably behind the sell down to around 92c now.

It looks very attractive on a forward PE basis.

[COLIN]

PBP is potentially looking cheap now. They expect significant revenue uplift this year as they have added a number of new distribution points for their products in the UK, will get the full impact of their asian distribution, and have acquired a number of new brands - as well as the 50% of Celebrity Slim they did not already own.

Issuing shares in the high $2 has turned out to be a brilliant play, but their performance since then has definitely not endeared them to institutions who are probably behind the sell down to around 92c now.

It looks very attractive on a forward PE basis.

I did hold some of these at one stage, and waited too long before I ditched them 6 months ago when it seemed apparent that they were on a very slippery downward slope. And the pace of that decline has not abated since. The chart looks horrible, and there are twice the number of sellers v. buyers. The fundamentals may look encouraging but the market isn't confirming that. The lights are still a vivid red, I'm afraid.

[thereslifeafter87]

Yeah, it could definitely fall more before it rises. Companies tend to perform badly for around a year after they release a profit warning, then significantly outperform the market from that point. I'm expecting something similar from PBP.

[Lizard]

In my view, PBP reporting has not been particularly up-front. At the very least, I would say they have not communicated clearly to shareholders as to major items affecting performance. At the worst, devious. I only traded them briefly at one stage, but was a bit wary of them then and now more so. I'd prefer to see a change in management before I'd trade it again, but agree that it is probably worth keeping an eye on at these prices.

[thereslifeafter87]

I think there's an argument that they were caught by surprise when the initial order from the UK wasn't repeated. They probably didn't have visibility on the level of sell through achieved at the time of their half-year results. That was the major item that impacted results.

My thesis is that they had a shocking 2H09 that is unlikely to be repeated this time around. I think the massive sell-off has given rise to a potentially attractive entry point.