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Thread: Junior oilers

  1. #61
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
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    AUD OIL $110bbl

    TEG 20mill in Cash + 15mill in GAS.asx shares --- Negative EV of 16mill !!

    Smallcaps interview ...
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YFUafykwB0

    Have been buying more TEGO long dated AUD23 opts.... just need to see my latest holding filled to take me to 8th largest TEGO holder 11.3mill..

    Right up the top of my list of potential 10x baggers next 12months
    Last edited by JBmurc; 12-11-2021 at 11:05 PM.
    "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu

  2. #62
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    Quote Originally Posted by Crypto Crude View Post
    Nice find...
    Whats the strike price on options?
    cc
    3.5c .... My first SELL Target is 6.5c TEGO (10c TEG SP )hits early to mid 2022 on Farm-in + TEG investment in GAS.asx shares going much higher on 400Pj Gas resources to Reserves then MOU sales contracts etc ...

    So buying at present half cent range with the opts would see 10x Bagger if the head share hits 10c which still would only see TEG market-cap around $110mill ...TEGs ...S/H in GAS alone could be worth $40-$50mill in 2022
    Last edited by JBmurc; 13-11-2021 at 05:26 PM.
    "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu

  3. #63
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    Australia will have a coal and gas economy beyond 2050

    https://www.afr.com/politics/federal...x=1636716365-1
    "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu

  4. #64
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  5. #65
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    https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-G...ply-Shock.html

    The global oil market could lose 3 million barrels per day (bpd) of supply from Russia starting in April, as sanctions on banks and buyers’ reluctance to purchase Russian oil could result in the biggest oil supply crisis in decades.

    $150bbl oil incoming ????

    Holding my O&G plays tight ...can see them spiking next month along with Brent
    "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu

  6. #66
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    Has been a perfect storm for oil,gas and energy stocks BEFORE Ukraine.Holding producers only .
    Note, New Hope Coal half year div today ,30 cents! Share price up 8% plus to re $3.10. yield plus.
    Last edited by Joshuatree; 24-03-2022 at 12:15 PM.

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    Talking to good buddy of mine. He’s in oil shipping and he said it dead at the moment… been like this for the last month. He recons with pricing being so high, nobody is committing. Interesting aye? I thought it would be booming! No oil moving around will mean even greater constrained supply?

  8. #68
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    Default AUD spot oil = $152bbl

    Quote Originally Posted by Ricky-bobby View Post
    Talking to good buddy of mine. He’s in oil shipping and he said it dead at the moment… been like this for the last month. He recons with pricing being so high, nobody is committing. Interesting aye? I thought it would be booming! No oil moving around will mean even greater constrained supply?
    Right I see on CNBC last night auto fuel demands hitting higher levels than pre-Covid years..

    After two years of lower oil demand due to COVID-19 lockdowns, oil demand is expected to exceed the levels of 2019 year. Global oil demand growth is expected to increase by 4.2 mb/d in 2022 to 100.7mb/d

    India Fuel demand record highs
    https://www.livemint.com/market/comm...572976190.html

    Oil demand is growing, and is expected to outpace pre-pandemic levels this year, according to global energy trading giant Vitol, which sees oil demand growth continuing to grow over the next decade.
    https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...Few-Years.html
    "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu

  9. #69
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    THE END OF RUSSIAN OIL
    25 March 2022 02:00 PM timetoread.png 6 min read Markets
    Think the Europeans will need to get by without Russian crude? You are 100% correct. But you are not thinking anywhere near big enough.

    Most of Russia’s oil fields are both old and extraordinarily remote from Russia’s customers. Fields in the North Caucasus are either tapped out or were never refurbished in the aftermath of the Chechen Wars, those of Russia’s Tatarstan and Bashkortostan provinces are well past their peak, and even western Siberian fields have been showing diminishing returns since the 2000s. With few exceptions, Russia’s oil discoveries of the last decade or three are deeper, smaller, more technically challenging, and even farther from population centres than the older fields they would be expected to replace. Russian output isn’t in danger of collapsing, but maintaining output will require more infrastructure, far higher up-front costs, and ongoing technical love and care to prevent steady output declines from becoming something far worse.

    While the Russians are no slouches when it comes to oil field knowledge, they were out of circulation from roughly 1940 through 2000. Oil technology came a long way in those sixty years. Foreign firms—most notably supermajors BP and Shell, and services firms Halliburton and Schlumberger—have collectively done work that is probably responsible for half of Russia’s contemporary output.

    The Western supermajors have left. All of them. Just as the Ukraine War began, Exxon and BP and Shell have walked away from projects they’ve sunk tens of billions of dollars into, knowing full well they won’t get a cent of compensation. Halliburton and Schlumberger’s operations today are a shadow of what they were before Russia’s previous invasion of Ukraine in 2014. Between future sanctions or the inability of the Russians to pay them with hard currency, those operations now risk winding down to zero. The result is as inevitable as it is damning: at least a 50% reduction in the ability of Russia to produce crude. (No. Chinese oilmen cannot hope to keep things flowing. The Chinese are worse in this space than the Russians.) The outstanding question is how soon?

    Sooner than you think. It’s an issue of infrastructure and climate.

    First, infrastructure. All of Russia’s oil flows first travel by pipe - in some cases for literally thousands of miles - before they reach either a customer or a discharge port. Pipes can’t ... dodge. Anything that impedes a single inch of a pipe shuts the whole thing down. In the post-Cold War globalized Order when we all got along, this was something we could sing-song-skip right by. But with the Russians dropping cluster bombs on civilian targets - as they started doing on Feb 28 - not so much. Whether the Russians destroy the pipes with their indiscriminate use of ordinance (like they damaged a radiation containment vessel at Chernobyl!!!) or Ukrainian partisans target anything that brings the Russians income, much of this system is doomed.

    Second, climate. Siberia, despite getting cold enough to literally freeze your nose off in October, doesn’t get cold enough. Most Russian oil production is in the permafrost, and for most of the summer the permafrost is inaccessible because its top layer melts into a messy, horizon-spanning swamp. What the Russians do is wait for the land to freeze, and then build dike-roads and drill for crude in the long dark of the Siberian winter. Should something happen to consumption of Russian crude oil or any of the millions of feet of pipe that take that crude from wellhead to port or consumer, flows would back up through the literally thousands of miles of pipes right up to the drill site. There is no place to store the stuff. Russia would just need to shut everything down. Turning it back on would require manually checking everything, all the way from well to border.

    The last time this happened was the Soviet collapse in 1989. It took millions of manhours of help from the likes of BP and Halliburton – and thirty-two years – for Russia to get back to its Cold War production levels. And now, with war on in Ukraine, insurance companies are cancelling policies for tankers carrying anything Russian on Seas Black and Baltic while the French seize Russian vessels, and the Russian Central Bank under the strictest financial sanctions ever, it is all falling apart. Again.

    Even in the sunshine and unicorn scenario that Putin duct tapes himself to a lawn chair and throws himself into a pool, and a random band of kindly kindergarten teachers take over the Russian government, we should not expect the energy supply situation in Russia to begin to stabilize before 2028, and for us to return to what we think of as the status quo before 2045.

    In the meantime, the debate of the moment is expanded energy sanctions. Once everyone concludes that Russian crude is going away regardless, there’s something to be said about pre-emptively sanctioning Russian energy before reality forces the same end result. Moral high road and all that. Bottom line: Uuuuugh! The disappearance of some four to five million Russian barrels of daily crude production will all by itself kick energy prices up to at least $170 a barrel. A global energy-induced depression is in the wind.

    But probably not an American one. In the bad ol’ days before World War II there wasn’t a “global” oil price. Each major country or empire controlled its own production and maintained its own - sequestered - market. Courtesy of the American shale revolution and pre-existing legislation, the U.S. president has the authority to end American oil exports on a whim and return us to that world. An American export ban would flood U.S. refiners with relatively cheap shale oil. Those refiners will certainly complain - their facilities have a taste for crude grades different from what comes out of Texas and North Dakota - but having a functional price ceiling within the United States of roughly $70 a barrel will achieve precisely what Joe Biden is after: cheaper gasoline prices.

    The rest of the world? They’ll have to grapple with losing Russian and American crude at the same time. If the “global” price stays below $200, I’d be shocked.

    The first rule of geopolitics is place matters. To populations. To transport. To finance. To agriculture. To energy. To everything. The second rule is things can always get worse. The world is about to (re)learn both lessons, good and hard.
    "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu

  10. #70
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
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    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8FZ3pbKXBx8

    Great interview smart expert in the shale oil industry...I 100% believe he is right .. and have half of my portfolio in the O&G sector ...
    "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu

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