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03-07-2020, 02:36 PM
#911
Filled and sent off my SPP form online, will find out on 8th (wed) how much of what I asked will I get.
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03-07-2020, 04:07 PM
#912
Member
If todays VWAP stays roughly where it is now, looks like the new shares will be issued at about a 2% (5 cent) discount to the offer of two weeks ago
June 29 VWAP 252.51
June 30 VWAP 240.46
July 01 VWAP 247.47
July 02 VWAP 255.71
July 03 VWAP 260.15 (at present)
5 day average: 251.26ish
Less 2.5% = $2.45 ish per share
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03-07-2020, 04:45 PM
#913
Originally Posted by dubya
If todays VWAP stays roughly where it is now, looks like the new shares will be issued at about a 2% (5 cent) discount to the offer of two weeks ago
June 29 VWAP 252.51
June 30 VWAP 240.46
July 01 VWAP 247.47
July 02 VWAP 255.71
July 03 VWAP 260.15 (at present)
5 day average: 251.26ish
Less 2.5% = $2.45 ish per share
That June 30th day was very high volume and will have a big bearing on the final VWAP over the 5 days
Might be a bigger discount
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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03-07-2020, 04:52 PM
#914
Originally Posted by dubya
If todays VWAP stays roughly where it is now, looks like the new shares will be issued at about a 2% (5 cent) discount to the offer of two weeks ago
June 29 VWAP 252.51
June 30 VWAP 240.46
July 01 VWAP 247.47
July 02 VWAP 255.71
July 03 VWAP 260.15 (at present)
5 day average: 251.26ish
Less 2.5% = $2.45 ish per share
Thanks to Blackrock for dumping 12mln odd shares on 30th June at $2.39 a piece
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03-07-2020, 06:54 PM
#915
Originally Posted by Snoopy
The vwap for 29th June was 252.56. Yet a 2.5% discount off that brings it down to $2.46.
A couple more data points notched up. The VWAP was quoted at $2.40.46 for 30th June ($2.34 with the 2.5% discount) and $250.67 for 1st July ($2.44 with the 2.5% discount). That last figure surprised me with the share price closing at $2.59. However there were a couple of big crossings at $2.39 first thing in the morning that must have skewed the average. If the second part of the dibble theory holds, that higher price should stick for the next couple of days, denying those small shareholders a sub $2.50 entry via the share plan. Let's see what happens.
We have the last two data points. These are $2.5631 for 2nd July and $2.5961 for 3rd July. Those figures reduce to $2.50 and $2.53 respectively. So the average for all five data points is:
Originally Posted by dibble
...there's a curious recurring theme with these capital raisings (IFT is latest) where the share price dips to a cent or three below the placement price before scurrying up again just in time to ensure the final retail price isnt discounted... almost by design...
The dibble theory is confirmed! Albeit the share price rise, after discount, does not seem high enough to get past that $2.50 target figure.
($2.46 + $2.34 + $2.44 + $2.50 + $2.53)/ 5 = $2.45
That is the same answer as 'dubya' gets, so it must be right!
Originally Posted by sb9
Thanks to Blackrock for dumping 12mln odd shares on 30th June at $2.39 a piece
Actually I think some of those Blackrock shares were not crossed until the morning of the next day. So they stacked the price on 1st July as well.
Originally Posted by winner69
That June 30th day was very high volume and will have a big bearing on the final VWAP over the 5 days
Might be a bigger discount
But hang on a minute. What does the offer document actually say about the alternative option to the $2.50 price?
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(b) a 2.5% discount to the volume weighted average market price of the Shares traded on the NZX over the five business day period prior to and including the Closing Date, rounded down to the nearest cent.
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That reads like all of the trades over five days are being lumped into one big mixing bowl when it comes to working out the average. If that were to happen, then the shadow of the Blackrock dump would be cast over all the five days of trading. If that is how the calculation is done then we can expect a lower share issue price than $2.45. Surely this can't be right though? Wouldn't that leave the whole process ripe for manipulation by the 'big boys'?
SNOOPY
Last edited by Snoopy; 03-07-2020 at 07:10 PM.
Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7
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03-07-2020, 08:11 PM
#916
Snoops — yes your last paragraph is correct ...one big mixing pot with all 5 days sales in it.
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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03-07-2020, 09:20 PM
#917
hmm should have bought in multiple folios and transferred off market after all...
"prior to and including the Closing Date"
well done snoopy... you hopefully are the winner!!!
sorry about that...
Last edited by Waltzing; 03-07-2020 at 09:23 PM.
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06-07-2020, 02:34 PM
#918
Blackrock buying back??
1:50:19 pm |
1:50:19 pm |
260.5 |
5,000,920 |
0.5 |
$13,027,396 |
1 |
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06-07-2020, 02:43 PM
#919
Originally Posted by sb9
Blackrock buying back??
1:50:19 pm |
1:50:19 pm |
260.5 |
5,000,920 |
0.5 |
$13,027,396 |
1 |
Could be further selling from them.
Good news is that someone is prepared to buy such a big line at above Friday market closing price.
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07-07-2020, 01:10 PM
#920
Interesting to see how many shares I will get, before the SPP, I owned 2 shares, I submit for $17,000 worth of shares. Will we know by lunch time tomorrow?
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