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  1. #901
    Legend Balance's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sb9 View Post
    Yes, that's what I was meant to say to claim EOY tax losses.
    👍

    Also a benefit to those participating in the SPP to have the sp below $2.50!

  2. #902
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post


    Also a benefit to those participating in the SPP to have the sp below $2.50!
    I doubt anyone applying would get allocated much due to high demand.

  3. #903
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    with no expansion of the bubble coming soon.. and the fire about to rage out of control in the US , earning about to report in the USA. It could be that the stock tanks under the 2.40 for a short time and you MAY be able to top up more on market but its a slim chance. Low on the GFC was about 2.50 ish.

    the big sell orders have been pulled...

    moving back up 2.54... its as vol as ever.. wonderful trading stock.. DISC: we never sold ... sadly... we usually do...
    Last edited by Waltzingironmansinlgescul; 01-07-2020 at 01:05 PM.

  4. #904
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    Confirmation of the first part of the dibble theory. SKC drops to $2.49 today, 1c below the share issue price. Still I have my request into the offer hoping to fill my boots. Looks like I might get my wish?

    Last five days of share price plan offer period are 29th June, 30th June, 1st July, 2nd July and 3rd July. Despite the close, the vwap for 29th June was 252.56. Yet a 2.5% discount off that brings it down to $2.46. Good for small shareholders who have applied through the share purchase plan if this price heads lower?
    A couple more data points notched up. The VWAP was quoted at $2.40.46 for 30th June ($2.34 with the 2.5% discount) and $250.67 for 1st July ($2.44 with the 2.5% discount). That last figure surprised me with the share price closing at $2.59. However there were a couple of big crossings at $2.39 first thing in the morning that must have skewed the average. If the second part of the dibble theory holds, that higher price should stick for the next couple of days, denying those small shareholders a sub $2.50 entry via the share plan. Let's see what happens.

    SNOOPY
    Industry shorthand sees BNZ employees still called 'bankers' but ANZ employees now called 'anchors'. Westpac has opted out of banking industry shorthand...

  5. #905
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    Quote Originally Posted by sb9 View Post
    I doubt anyone applying would get allocated much due to high demand.
    I doubt there will be high demand from retail investors

  6. #906
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    if you study the last 10 years of prices you will see plenty of entry points to trade. Well there is now another 10 years to trade and a world that is very very unstable.

  7. #907
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    Quote Originally Posted by tango View Post
    I doubt there will be high demand from retail investors
    In which case, big boys will be more than happy to lap them up. They sure know how the game works...

  8. #908
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    There you go.

    Closed today at $2.39 on 12.7m total traded volume!
    Here you go, looks like Blackrock dumped most of them at $2.39 on that day (30th Jun).
    Last edited by sb9; 02-07-2020 at 09:57 AM.

  9. #909
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    Quote Originally Posted by sb9 View Post
    In which case, big boys will be more than happy to lap them up. They sure know how the game works...
    Quote Originally Posted by sb9
    Here you go, looks like Blackrock dumped most of them at $2.39 on that day (30th Jun).
    So the big boys know how it works but BlackRock dumped more than 10 million shares!

  10. #910
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    Quote Originally Posted by tango View Post
    So the big boys know how it works but BlackRock dumped more than 10 million shares!
    Why not, its all part of their play...

  11. #911
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    Filled and sent off my SPP form online, will find out on 8th (wed) how much of what I asked will I get.

  12. #912
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    If todays VWAP stays roughly where it is now, looks like the new shares will be issued at about a 2% (5 cent) discount to the offer of two weeks ago

    June 29 VWAP 252.51
    June 30 VWAP 240.46
    July 01 VWAP 247.47
    July 02 VWAP 255.71
    July 03 VWAP 260.15 (at present)

    5 day average: 251.26ish

    Less 2.5% = $2.45 ish per share

  13. #913
    CEO Butch Analytics Ltd winner69's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dubya View Post
    If todays VWAP stays roughly where it is now, looks like the new shares will be issued at about a 2% (5 cent) discount to the offer of two weeks ago

    June 29 VWAP 252.51
    June 30 VWAP 240.46
    July 01 VWAP 247.47
    July 02 VWAP 255.71
    July 03 VWAP 260.15 (at present)

    5 day average: 251.26ish

    Less 2.5% = $2.45 ish per share
    That June 30th day was very high volume and will have a big bearing on the final VWAP over the 5 days

    Might be a bigger discount
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  14. #914
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    Quote Originally Posted by dubya View Post
    If todays VWAP stays roughly where it is now, looks like the new shares will be issued at about a 2% (5 cent) discount to the offer of two weeks ago

    June 29 VWAP 252.51
    June 30 VWAP 240.46
    July 01 VWAP 247.47
    July 02 VWAP 255.71
    July 03 VWAP 260.15 (at present)

    5 day average: 251.26ish

    Less 2.5% = $2.45 ish per share
    Thanks to Blackrock for dumping 12mln odd shares on 30th June at $2.39 a piece

  15. #915
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    Quote Originally Posted by Snoopy View Post
    The vwap for 29th June was 252.56. Yet a 2.5% discount off that brings it down to $2.46.

    A couple more data points notched up. The VWAP was quoted at $2.40.46 for 30th June ($2.34 with the 2.5% discount) and $250.67 for 1st July ($2.44 with the 2.5% discount). That last figure surprised me with the share price closing at $2.59. However there were a couple of big crossings at $2.39 first thing in the morning that must have skewed the average. If the second part of the dibble theory holds, that higher price should stick for the next couple of days, denying those small shareholders a sub $2.50 entry via the share plan. Let's see what happens.
    We have the last two data points. These are $2.5631 for 2nd July and $2.5961 for 3rd July. Those figures reduce to $2.50 and $2.53 respectively. So the average for all five data points is:


    Quote Originally Posted by dibble View Post
    ...there's a curious recurring theme with these capital raisings (IFT is latest) where the share price dips to a cent or three below the placement price before scurrying up again just in time to ensure the final retail price isnt discounted... almost by design...
    The dibble theory is confirmed! Albeit the share price rise, after discount, does not seem high enough to get past that $2.50 target figure.

    ($2.46 + $2.34 + $2.44 + $2.50 + $2.53)/ 5 = $2.45

    That is the same answer as 'dubya' gets, so it must be right!

    Quote Originally Posted by sb9 View Post
    Thanks to Blackrock for dumping 12mln odd shares on 30th June at $2.39 a piece
    Actually I think some of those Blackrock shares were not crossed until the morning of the next day. So they stacked the price on 1st July as well.

    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    That June 30th day was very high volume and will have a big bearing on the final VWAP over the 5 days

    Might be a bigger discount
    But hang on a minute. What does the offer document actually say about the alternative option to the $2.50 price?

    ---------

    (b) a 2.5% discount to the volume weighted average market price of the Shares traded on the NZX over the five business day period prior to and including the Closing Date, rounded down to the nearest cent.

    ---------

    That reads like all of the trades over five days are being lumped into one big mixing bowl when it comes to working out the average. If that were to happen, then the shadow of the Blackrock dump would be cast over all the five days of trading. If that is how the calculation is done then we can expect a lower share issue price than $2.45. Surely this can't be right though? Wouldn't that leave the whole process ripe for manipulation by the 'big boys'?

    SNOOPY
    Last edited by Snoopy; 03-07-2020 at 07:10 PM.
    Industry shorthand sees BNZ employees still called 'bankers' but ANZ employees now called 'anchors'. Westpac has opted out of banking industry shorthand...

  16. #916
    CEO Butch Analytics Ltd winner69's Avatar
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    Snoops — yes your last paragraph is correct ...one big mixing pot with all 5 days sales in it.
    “Just consider that maybe the probability of you being wrong is higher than you think.”

  17. #917
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    hmm should have bought in multiple folios and transferred off market after all...

    "prior to and including the Closing Date"

    well done snoopy... you hopefully are the winner!!!

    sorry about that...
    Last edited by Waltzingironmansinlgescul; 03-07-2020 at 09:23 PM.

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