SKC - Sky City

[winner69]

I think you have it wrong Winner.

Rather than implicitly criticising Nigel Morrison, you should be praising the theoretical Nigel Morrison. I am talking about the one that booked the theoretical high roller win rate for Sky City IF those dice had landed according to how statistics said they should have landed. In theory those high roller profits should have been real. And the least you could do is give some theoretical praise for the theoretical Nigel Morrison who did book those statiscally expected 'normalised profit's if the dice had landed the right way, at least in theory.

SNOOPY

thanks for that brilliant feedback snoopy

I'll pass it on to the guys at Kathmandu etc and suggest that they should look at 'normalising' profit by adjusting for excessive discounts because winter came late.

[Beagle]

Great comedy today

[winner69]

Great comedy today

Those international guys laughing all the way to the bank over the last six months

Full year difference to expected wins was $15.4m

At the half year it was $1,9m

Goodness gracious those guys have had the luck on their side beating the stats by $13,5m in the last six months of the year

All this stuff is evil and I have only spent 10 minutes in the Auckland den of inequity so don't know how it all works but SKY said this in the H1 report "for a number of players, the IB win rate was well in excess of the theoretical 1.35% and for these players that lost significantly and therefore earned less
commission, we paid a higher level of complementary expenses"[/I]

Does that mean if you win more than you should you keep the money but if we win more than we should we'll give you a meal and champagne and a bed for the night so you come back the next day to win more than you meant to

Maybe I misunderstand all this stuff. Maybe even the assumption that punters win more than they are meant to is even wrong .... but that's how I read the reports anyway

[Balance]

thanks for that brilliant feedback snoopy

I'll pass it on to the guys at Kathmandu etc and suggest that they should look at 'normalising' profit by adjusting for excessive discounts because winter came late.

So freaking true and I am writing as a shareholder!

[winner69]

how normal is normal

I think your friend Nigel better do his sums again.

FY12 was $4.2m and FY13 $2.3m and this year the $15.4m

Past years the bulk of it may have been shouting the losers but this year it looks like the punters did beat the odds at the table

I have sent Nigel an email asking him how it works but probably Nigel has more important things to do than explain this to me. Maybe he will pass it on to that new communications guy they have taken on from Fairfax

[Beagle]

I'm pretty sure I recall a few months back a segment on CNBC that eluded too rumours of a bunch of big rolling hounds doing the rounds of Asian and pacific casino's who were experts at card counting, anyone else heard this ?
I've never been in the high rollers room but certainly on the main floor most if not all of the blackjack tables now have card shuffling machines which effectively negate anyone's ability to count cards but not so sure about the high rollers room. Anyone been in there ?

[winner69]

Analysts pleased - that's all that matters

Goldman Sachs really +ve about the future - Curley is forecasting $145 million net profit after tax for the June 2015 year and has a buy rating on the company, saying the company was exposed to two high-quality projects in Adelaide and Auckland. Doak (Mcqauries) has a $4.68 valuation on the shares, which closed up 7c yesterday at $3.62.

Good eh Balance

[winner69]

Maybe we should look at the Australia perspective more often

Bell Potter "A quick way to look at the SkyCity result is [Australian dollars] normalised [earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation] is up 8 per cent over the last year, yet the [Australian dollars] share price is down 9 per cent - this is an anomaly that we believe is unwarranted and today's result highlights why SkyCity has been oversold recently,"

Remember it is these guys (and Blackrock) that drive the shareprice

[winner69]

Gaynor not impressed with SKC performance but in defence of SKC it just shows that analysts are useless at forecasting earnings. I've always discounted valuations / targrts by 20% to reflect reality

But heck increasing those being paid over $700k by seven in a couple of years is amazing, esp as profits go backwards. Must e the place to work.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11312951

Extract -

Sky City's performance has been particularly poor as its net earnings have declined for two consecutive years and the company's 20 cents dividend is well below the 26 cents it paid for the June 2006 year.

The casino operator continues to underperform relative to analysts' forecasts as follows:

• After the June 2012 year result analysts had an average June 2013 year forecast of $145.6 million but the company achieved only $136.3 million.

• After the 2012-13 result the average analyst forecast was $142.8 million for the June 2014 year but the actual outcome was just $123.2 million.

• The average net earnings forecast for the June 2015 year has been cut from $168.7 million after the June 2012 year result to $163.1 million after the 2012-13 year announcement to just $132 million at present.

• Meanwhile the number of SkyCity executives earning $700,000 or more a year has jumped from none in 2011 to five in 2012 and eight in 2013.

It will be fascinating to see how many executives were paid $700,000 or more in the June 2014 year as there doesn't seem to be a close correlation between performance and executive remuneration at SkyCity.

[Snoopy]

Gaynor not impressed with SKC performance but in defence of SKC it just shows that analysts are useless at forecasting earnings. I've always discounted valuations / targrts by 20% to reflect reality

But heck increasing those being paid over $700k by seven in a couple of years is amazing, esp as profits go backwards. Must e the place to work.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11312951

Extract -

Sky City's performance has been particularly poor as its net earnings have declined for two consecutive years and the company's 20 cents dividend is well below the 26 cents it paid for the June 2006 year.

The casino operator continues to underperform relative to analysts' forecasts as follows:

• After the June 2012 year result analysts had an average June 2013 year forecast of $145.6 million but the company achieved only $136.3 million.

• After the 2012-13 result the average analyst forecast was $142.8 million for the June 2014 year but the actual outcome was just $123.2 million.

• The average net earnings forecast for the June 2015 year has been cut from $168.7 million after the June 2012 year result to $163.1 million after the 2012-13 year announcement to just $132 million at present.

• Meanwhile the number of SkyCity executives earning $700,000 or more a year has jumped from none in 2011 to five in 2012 and eight in 2013.

It will be fascinating to see how many executives were paid $700,000 or more in the June 2014 year as there doesn't seem to be a close correlation between performance and executive remuneration at SkyCity.

Winner, I am very disappointed to see you highlighting the actual quotes by the outlier Brian Gaynor as regards Sky City. Of far more significance are the theoretical quotes that a normalised Brian Gaynor would have made had all of those analyst expectations been satisfied. You need to open your mind to the possibilities and not get too hung up on reality with Sky City. Believe in what could happen and all of those positive theoretical quotes just write themselves.

SNOOPY