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  1. #1
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    Question Depression in the USA - Deflation verus Inflation

    Strat - "Hi Tricha, In denial in regard to what?
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    Timing is everything "

    Everyone one is in Denial ( including myself )

    We have been on the gravy train for the last few years and it has stopped.

    New threads popping up and going around the real issue ( description of Yogi, Poll buying ........., Making money in resources, Investment theories, Beware of investor chat )

    Recession and the effect it will or will not have on the rest of the World and our portifilos.

    1 - The USA is in recession.

    2 - Peak oil and how high oil prices will effect it, the world requires cheap energy for growth.

    3 - High interest rates effects on business profitability and consumer spending.

    4 - Gold as protection.

    Every which way I look at it, I can not see how with high inflation the US can keep dropping interest rates.

    It has been a long time coming, But I think this would have been Gerrys year, this year is going to be very different.

    Food for thought! Yeo get that grey matter thinking.

    Where to from here
    Last edited by tricha; 21-06-2009 at 07:16 PM.

  2. #2
    SRV is a God STRAT's Avatar
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    Gosh Tricha, I feel like Ive been made a bit of an example here but as I stated on the "buying? selling ?holding? cash" thread I have sold down all my mid term plays including GDM which are a significant % of my portfolio. and have cash at hand while waiting to see how this all pans out over the next few days/weeks/months/years. Having been at this game less than two years. Im watching carefully what you long timers are saying and doing.

    Out of interest. Are you still holding ADY.

    Do all the more experienced players here see this as just a natural progression in the cycle of things or are we in new territory here?

  3. #3
    Senior Member Halebop's Avatar
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    The market has done this hundreds of times before and will keep doing it until the end of time. This correction feels scary but then they all do. Debt/liquidity corrections tend to be a bit more emphatic than your standard sentiment blip - this is because the debts & losses remain long after the assets stop performing and cash flow is a slow (but truer) way to recover.

    Patience has it's own reward and you don't have to be "right" or a "timing genius" in order to just wait and see what happens and go with whatever trend transpires. I think we are due an end to this bull run but any recession or slow growth phase will be relatively short - no more 6 quarters. The boomers are still in a cash generating sweet spot.

  4. #4
    SRV is a God STRAT's Avatar
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    Thanks Halebop.
    Just for the record, The only time I show any signs of genius with timing is when Im forced unexpectedly to wind up a lead break in a couple of bars

  5. #5
    Guru Crypto Crude's Avatar
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    Tricha,
    Ive personally found that some of my contacts dont want to really talk about the 'credit crisis'... BUT, My contacts who are either heavily invested or have the big smarts are thinking about it hard... I generally found that at the last few sharetrader meetings that nobody really wanted to talk about the market in general, but I did miss the last stellar CHCH meet...
    ...
    I have personally discussed what I have done, Ive started a few threads and added to others... ITs KIND of like being a party pooper and I dont want to be the one to bring the bad news...
    As far as Im concerned, Ive said what Ive done...
    and others have to make their own decisions...
    When I came out with the what is SC doing thread, I got ridiculed by the likes of Mick who kind of slammed me, so I backed off...
    pretty much got told to stop being a Pusssy...
    ....
    I started the 'description of Yogi' thread because of Demand from my fellow posters for more explanation as we continue to make up our own minds, and for more entertainment as one PM explained it...
    NWE sub 20c today... im closely watching and waiting for entry with cash in hand... yeaahh haaa...
    keep up the good work tricha...
    I also appreciate your thoughts Halebop
    lata..

    .^sc
    Last edited by Crypto Crude; 14-01-2008 at 11:09 AM.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by STRAT View Post
    Gosh Tricha, I feel like Ive been made a bit of an example here but as I stated on the "buying? selling ?holding? cash" thread I have sold down all my mid term plays including GDM which are a significant % of my portfolio. and have cash at hand while waiting to see how this all pans out over the next few days/weeks/months/years. Having been at this game less than two years. Im watching carefully what you long timers are saying and doing.

    Out of interest. Are you still holding ADY.

    Do all the more experienced players here see this as just a natural progression in the cycle of things or are we in new territory here?
    Very wise move Strat, I wish I had done the same , ADY for me is a 1 -2 year holding, one for the future due to the coming of peak oil.

    Myself I have changed tack again, Gerry had been going on for years about an impending crash in the USA.

    I always said one day he would be right.

    If that day is to happen, by all indications it will be soon.

    Recent events that have changed substantally in the US.

    1 - UnEmployment rate on the increase.

    2 - Banks due to report and all indications are bad results.

    3 - Inflation is rampent, but the US is in denial and want to lower interest rates.

    4 - Peak oil, The US uses nearly 30% of all oil produced in the world, they import most of it, at the given price, how do they pay for it.
    They need cheap oil to drive their economy.

    5 - The gold price going through the roof.

    6 - Talk about a subprime crisis, now we are moving into a credit card crisis.

    Next stage is called hyper-inflation

    Anything positive out there ?????????????????

    I was thinking of buying physical gold in September, I wish I had.

    Today I moved back into a pure gold play as some insurance to what could come.
    Most gold companies share prices have been slow to react to the substantial increase in the Gold price.

    Cheers and happy hunting

    P.S Sorry Shrewd I do not follow the NZ market, I guess that's where u posted. Yeah Northwest back to bargin basement prices.
    Last edited by tricha; 14-01-2008 at 08:59 PM. Reason: missed part

  7. #7
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    Question Everyone in denial still or are your heads buried in the sand.

    Quote Originally Posted by Shrewd Crude View Post
    Tricha,
    Ive personally found that some of my contacts dont want to really talk about the 'credit crisis'... BUT, My contacts who are either heavily invested or have the big smarts are thinking about it hard... I generally found that at the last few sharetrader meetings that nobody really wanted to talk about the market in general, but I did miss the last stellar CHCH meet...

    .^sc
    The music is about to stop in the USA, whos got the parcel

    The fund managers seem to be bailing out of metals, where will that cash go, fixed interest or safety stocks like banks, with Centro on the blink, maybe banks are a bit shakey as well.

    Dumped a % of my metals as well at a big loss I might add and bought gold shares, before the fund managers do.

    Gerry would love this one, the gold price has gone off, but most gold companies have not .................................................. .............

    Cash in the bank, yep short term ok, but inflatation and even hyper-inflation.

    Remember that word Hyper-inflation

    Germany had it in the past, worth reading up on, the US surely is heading down that path.

    Can Asia save us, does anyone really know.

  8. #8
    SRV is a God STRAT's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tricha View Post
    Can Asia save us, does anyone really know.
    Hi Tricha, A very good question and in regard to my question earlier " are we in new territory here" I think Aisa is very much a wild card. Not keeping my hopes pinned on it though

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by STRAT View Post
    Hi Tricha, A very good question and in regard to my question earlier " are we in new territory here" I think Aisa is very much a wild card. Not keeping my hopes pinned on it though
    Oh yeah Strat, a new uncharted territory I'm afraid.

    Full of unknowns and knowns =

    I do not have a crystal ball. But when the CEO of GM comes out and states we are into peak oil, thats confirmation of what we already new was reality.
    The likes of Bermuda who won the 2007 share competion, he has been an advocate of Peak Oil since I can remember.

    A book named "1000 barrells a Second" is well worth a read into the now and the future of being in Peak Oil.

    Cheers

  10. #10
    SRV is a God STRAT's Avatar
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    Moving away from oil a bit. China ( the worlds workshop ) I feel will be hit hard if the US implodes. The flow on effect to other nations will have major effects on Chinas ability to maintain export volumes. Talk of Demand from China and India for raw materials being the saving grace for the Aussie Oil and Mining sector may be over stated. Talk of demand from within china the same. If they cant export their domestic economy will suffer accordingly

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