Depression in the USA - Deflation verus Inflation

[pago]

Thanks fellas

LOL, thats one "sell the lot" and one "sell none"

I was feeling about 50/50 on which way to go but now Im sure Im 50/50 on which way to go

Anyone else care to comment?

hi strat,dow futures up 25,means nothing.there is a lot of data from usa this week,i see the whole week being volitile,canada market holding well and prob best comparison to oz resource sector,but lets not kid ourselves,if the usa data is downtrending we could be looking at a retest of 5200 on the oz all ord.too early to say.obviously best sectors are energy now but i see oil price bubble bursting ,give it a few months.prob back to $100 barrel,maybe $80.still very good for investors and good for economies.tuesday is only one day,the data over this week may better define the trend.i dont hold confidence in the usa economy but its the old argument of how the resource sector will progress despite the usa.for what its worth imho ,energy stocks will see us doing well for 08,cheers pago

[JBmurc]

Thanks fellas

LOL, thats one "sell the lot" and one "sell none"

I was feeling about 50/50 on which way to go but now Im sure Im 50/50 on which way to go

Anyone else care to comment?

-As all my investment funds & loans are in energy & gold and as of today my first 1kg silver bullion bar I'm more than confindent in my holders.
-selling the lot going cash in the bank be fine if your enjoy saving and waiting.....
If you what to make serious profits you got to have some balls take some risks IMHO-------- less risk =less profits IMHO if getting rich was easy we all would be..

[COLIN]

The Aussies amongst us must be glad that they had a public holiday today, in honour of Her Majesty (what happens when the Monarchy is eventually abolished, as seems inevitable? Can't see a "President's Day", doesn't sound quite right, but there will no doubt continue to be a holiday of some sort - what about a "Respect for the Aged Day" as they have in Japan?! Seems a great idea to this senior citizen.)
Anyway, back to market trends. I'm sure there would have been a rout on the ASX today had it been a trading day, i.e. the first significant market to open following the slump on Wall St on Friday. However, my pick is that there will be some consolidation on Wall St tonight and the final closing - up or down - will be relatively mild. The ASX will turn down, reflecting Friday's movement, but not nearly as severely as it would otherwise have been if it hadn't been a holiday today.
Its interesting that my NZ portfolio actually recorded a slight overall gain today, due to my holdings in NZO (heads & options) PRC and PPP, notwithstanding that my other NZX holdings are greater than these, in total.
My advice would be: look at your portfolio mix, decide what areas of activity hold the most promise for the longer-term, and only discard those shares that you assess have little prospect of performing as well as those in your chosen asset classes. For myself my chosen areas are fuel, food, healthcare and (in NZ) firms with significant offshore earnings.
So, Strat, thats my tuppence worth.

P.S. Interesting to see that the Footsie was actually slightly in positive territory when I last checked a few minutes ago. I was surprised to see that, but of course encouraged.

[STRAT]

hi strat,dow futures up 25,means nothing.there is a lot of data from usa this week,i see the whole week being volitile,canada market holding well and prob best comparison to oz resource sector,but lets not kid ourselves,if the usa data is downtrending we could be looking at a retest of 5200 on the oz all ord.too early to say.obviously best sectors are energy now but i see oil price bubble bursting ,give it a few months.prob back to $100 barrel,maybe $80.still very good for investors and good for economies.tuesday is only one day,the data over this week may better define the trend.i dont hold confidence in the usa economy but its the old argument of how the resource sector will progress despite the usa.for what its worth imho ,energy stocks will see us doing well for 08,cheers pago

Hi Pago,
Thanks for your reply. Im thinking its not so much that news from the USA is downtrending as you put it but more a case of sooner or later the figures are going to have less bu!!**** in them and the rest of the country will have to pay the piper. Tonight will be interesting. I was thinking more about sliding out and sliding back in rather than running for the hills. Interesting call on the POO. Im sure some here would argue with that call. Time will tell as always.

[STRAT]

-As all my investment funds & loans are in energy & gold and as of today my first 1kg silver bullion bar I'm more than confindent in my holders.
-selling the lot going cash in the bank be fine if your enjoy saving and waiting.....
If you what to make serious profits you got to have some balls take some risks IMHO-------- less risk =less profits IMHO if getting rich was easy we all would be..

Hi JB,
If you have borrowed funds invested in this market then I must conceed you are the one with the bigger balls here.

[STRAT]

The Aussies amongst us must be glad that they had a public holiday today, in honour of Her Majesty (what happens when the Monarchy is eventually abolished, as seems inevitable? Can't see a "President's Day", doesn't sound quite right, but there will no doubt continue to be a holiday of some sort - what about a "Respect for the Aged Day" as they have in Japan?! Seems a great idea to this senior citizen.)
Anyway, back to market trends. I'm sure there would have been a rout on the ASX today had it been a trading day, i.e. the first significant market to open following the slump on Wall St on Friday. However, my pick is that there will be some consolidation on Wall St tonight and the final closing - up or down - will be relatively mild. The ASX will turn down, reflecting Friday's movement, but not nearly as severely as it would otherwise have been if it hadn't been a holiday today.
Its interesting that my NZ portfolio actually recorded a slight overall gain today, due to my holdings in NZO (heads & options) PRC and PPP, notwithstanding that my other NZX holdings are greater than these, in total.
My advice would be: look at your portfolio mix, decide what areas of activity hold the most promise for the longer-term, and only discard those shares that you assess have little prospect of performing as well as those in your chosen asset classes. For myself my chosen areas are fuel, food, healthcare and (in NZ) firms with significant offshore earnings.
So, Strat, thats my tuppence worth.

P.S. Interesting to see that the Footsie was actually slightly in positive territory when I last checked a few minutes ago. I was surprised to see that, but of course encouraged.

Hi Colin thanks for that,
In terms of sectors my current stocks consist of Oil, CSG, U and a few long shots which will or will not pay off regardless of market sentiment. I think everyone took my original post as seeking advice on whether to vacate the market place or not. This isnt what I had in mind but more along the lines of how do the rest of you see the next few weeks playing out. All my stocks are speculative and with that kind of portfolio it can pay dividends sliding in and out on market sentiment. I also see the misleading economic data coming out of the US which has propped the US markets over the last year as a good thing in some ways. It has given the rest of the world time to adjust slowly but surely to a decoupling from the US which I think is becoming evident in how much our own market reacts to what happens over there. A year ago the ASX followed the DOW like they were attached at the hip. This seems less evident now. Anyone else noticed this?

[Hoop]

Strat
Mr(s) bear loses his/her temper again and mauls a few more slow moving investors. Nothing new folks just another normal event within a bear market phase.
What now?... who knows?
If I knew these things I would be richer than Buffett.

All I know is that there is a Bear out there in dem woods with one hell of a bad attitude.

Hoop is 66% cashed up** and 29% in energy shares and riding this Commodity boom (oil and coal) yee ha!!. 5% in currency sensitive share.

Hoop is resisting the temption of one of the deadly sins at the moment (greed)..and will not invest much more into the energy sector..Hoop has nearly enough exposure. May swap around though where opportunities arise...
....but it is Discipline..Discipline...Discipline....keep to the game plan...must not deviate away from the self-appointed semi-conservative Bear Market Strategy.... or Hoop may be Mr(s) Bears next meal

It's dangerous times Strat.

The commodity shares is a good hiding place from Mr(s) Bear at the moment...but it won't last forever ...the bear will find it eventually...so have to stay one step ahead by either cashing up or moving to another better hiding place...history and survival instincts has taught us this.

** Was 80% cash but appreciation of the energy shares have changed Hoops % ratios.

PS Direct Brokering trading account now offering 8.1% interest

[JBmurc]

Hi JB,
If you have borrowed funds invested in this market then I must conceed you are the one with the bigger balls here.

-Yeah alot of investors would say borrowing funds to invest in sharemarkets are risky personal I think people borrowing in the wrong markets is risky -like investing in NZ's overinflated property markets or investing in high yeild finance companys

-All of my borrowed funds is from the bank using my dept free property equity(9% int rate)100% of the funds were invested into the ASX at .94c NZD/AUD currently up 14% from the strong AUD
-All of my investments are traded within a LQAC and because of some of my shares & CFD & Warrents made losses for the tax year uncle cullen will be play back most of my personal income tax +carry forward tax-losses to next yrs Tax review

[Hoop]

-Yeah alot of investors would say borrowing funds to invest in sharemarkets are risky personal I think people borrowing in the wrong markets is risky -like investing in NZ's overinflated property markets or investing in high yeild finance companys ........

...and highly speculative effected commodities market

[JBmurc]

...and highly speculative effected commodities market

My two biggest holdings NZX-NZO at $1 ASX-STX 25c these make up 65% of all my funds invested.

-Both companies are cheap even if energy prices pulled back 30%.(not likely)

-If I had put my unloaned funds into the safe bank for 8% return I'd then have to pay 39% tax on the 8% leaving 5% if I took real inflation into the mix my 5% increase on funds invested wouldn't really buy me much more the it did 12 months earlier.
-I plan on making serious money the two above companies will be the cornerstone to this