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  1. #271
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    Do you ever get the feeling you were born into the last phase of a dieing society-a bit like when a star expands just before it explodes and all hell breaks loose?

  2. #272
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    that is a Haunting statement skid......
    but then.... look at the other dead societies through history.... they did die and most historians dont know why.

  3. #273
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    Quote Originally Posted by belgarion View Post
    Tricha, Maybe the same thing will happen as in Japan: zero i-rates. zero inflation. zero growth. And for 10 years and counting.
    Yes I have this feeling...

    Maybe one of the reasons Ben is flooding the market with printed $$$ atm is to try and create an inflationary environment so to counter the evil deflation/stagnation pressures.

  4. #274
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    Quote Originally Posted by neopoleII View Post
    that is a Haunting statement skid......
    but then.... look at the other dead societies through history.... they did die and most historians dont know why.
    It wouldnt be totally unreasonable to say the USA is going the way of ROME

  5. #275
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    Quote Originally Posted by tricha View Post

    President Obama: "We all need to make sacrifices"

    .
    Of course he means with the exception of those who caused and made a killing out of this mess, all those too big to fail, the lobby groups who helped him into office, Banks and those with connections etc, etc , etc
    Last edited by STRAT; 17-09-2012 at 12:59 PM.

  6. #276
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    Quote Originally Posted by STRAT View Post
    It wouldnt be totally unreasonable to say the USA is going the way of ROME
    Strat your post bought back memories of my April 2008 post Fall of the Roman Empire page 9 on this thread..however of more interest look at Tricha's posts below mine..thought by many posters to be extremely negative at that time..how true his posts turned out to be...well done Tricha.

  7. #277
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    There is no WAY the Dow is going to 30K.

    Have a look at Japan's exchanges since 1990.

    It's like a ball bouncing down the stairs.

    --------------

    Lots of folks calling for doom in the US...and while much of it is justified......peopple are failing to undertand that they are only perceiving the US as falling faster off of a cliff, faster relative to themselves.

    I'm doing a lot of travel between NZ/OZ/US this year...and back again to both from NZ in the coming weeks yet again.

    One thing that is absolutely insane right now is the price of housing and the price of a draft beer.....in Australia.

    At the moment you could exchange 1 average modern home in the Brisbane/Gold Coast region for possibly up to 3 average modern homes in the Orlando Florida region.

    Roughly comparable homes
    Roughly comparable infrastructure
    Roughly comparable non-mining economic bases
    Roughly comparable quality of life and standard of living amenities

    Same for a draft beer......1 in Aussie, for 3(and not cr@p budweiser, something like a Yingling) in the US.

    Things are getting VERY weird.

    It reminds me of 2000-2001 when it was incredibly cheap to use US Dollars to buy NZ or OZ assets...it didn't last for long.

    So while it is very much worth keeping an eye on the US economy......how it relates to the economy here in NZ and across the ditch is equally important.

    Is a house in Brisbane/Gold Coast REALLY worth 3 times as much as a comparable one in Orlando/Florida all things being roughly(emphasis roughly) equal?

    Is there still downside to housing in the US?

    Absolutely....lots of inventory is still not moving....but the downside now is far far less than it was 2,3,5 years ago.

    The vast majority of the detrimental credit bubble effects have been purged in some markets.

  8. #278
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    Hi Lakedaemonian
    Interesting Post
    A few questions if don't mind
    From you first hand experience.
    1....Do you think that in the USA now that some of the bubbles (particularly Housing) have popped..there has been deflation occurring on other sectors such as service industries food etc due to loss of personal assets.
    2...There has been rumblings that OZ housing market is in a huge bubble...Is NZ housing market in a similar sized bubble?
    3... Is the cost to build in the USA more expensive than to buy an existing House ? This is the argument used by NZ property investors that replacement value is similar to existing house value therefore no bubble no trouble....This argument neglects to mention a possible section price bubble Has USA Section prices taken the biggest hit with this rapid property deflation?
    Thxs in advance
    Hoop

  9. #279
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoop View Post
    Hi Lakedaemonian
    Interesting Post
    A few questions if don't mind
    From you first hand experience.
    1....Do you think that in the USA now that some of the bubbles (particularly Housing) have popped..there has been deflation occurring on other sectors such as service industries food etc due to loss of personal assets.

    My PERCEPTION(which may NOT be reality) is that the service/retail customer base is swarming from brand new to brand new......such as a brand new restaurant theme or retail area.....turning previous hot spot businesses and properties from "A" to "B" and "B" to "C"

    That's the feel I get from things.

    Some places are exploding with business....others are completely dead.


    2...There has been rumblings that OZ housing market is in a huge bubble...Is NZ housing market in a similar sized bubble?

    I'm more worried about OZ when China's commodity buying takes a breather. But in having said that, here in NZ property in Auckland is getting back into silly territory.

    Here in Christchurch we have a distorted market for obvious reasons, but I think in a couple of ways a slightly more healthy market with a decent amount of older/lower quality properties and excess capacity removed from the market....which does bing a set of NEW problems as well.


    3... Is the cost to build in the USA more expensive than to buy an existing House ? This is the argument used by NZ property investors that replacement value is similar to existing house value therefore no bubble no trouble....This argument neglects to mention a possible section price bubble Has USA Section prices taken the biggest hit with this rapid property deflation?
    Thxs in advance
    Hoop
    Not sure about new build in the US, but I would presume(I think safely) that building the same house from scratch would probably cost more since all of the post early 09 liquidation of labor and materials is gone....now it's just the labor portion that is under serious pressure....I don't think the cost of materials would be lower than it was when the comparable house was being built.

    Just my opinion......but with so much inventory still sitting around(although the velocity of sales has come off the bottom in a number of the worst affected markets) why bother building when you can negotiate buying existing property from a position of strength.

    The problems of buying now are:

    Only those with dry powder can get the insanely cheap long term fixed mortgages.

    When the US faces a bond crisis(and it will, probably by the middle of the next administration circa 2014) and interest rates rise it will not benefit housing prices...so there is STILL downside risk.

    But the US market possesses a huge(but now nationalized) mortgage banking industry where you can buy an assumable 30 year fixed interest loan for 3.5%.

    As long as you can pay freehold or make the cheap payments you are sweet.

    The genuine issues is home owners insurance and property taxes(rates) can hit you depending on the location.

    I wouldn't touch bare residential section in the US with a barge pole, unless it was being given away. And even then I'd ask why and what the outgoings would be.

    In no way am I suggesting anyone should BUY property in the US, BUT if someone was looking at diversifying(and had investment property experience) and/or moving to the US.....now would be a good time to look.

    I also view it as an indicator of possibly a mirror image of 2000-2001. When this very situation was reversed.

    My guess is that we will eventually revert to somewhere where we probably should be....somewhere between 2000 and 2012 relative to the US.

    But $150k USD for a modern 3-4 bedroom home in Florida, with a semi-indoor inground pool and/or a boat dock on a lagoon in a small satellite city less than an hour from major metro centre is insanely cheap by any measure.

    Things are getting weird........at this stage I feel a little more confident about prospects in the US than I do in OZ/NZ for the next couple of years.

    Although that may be a bit like saying I would prefer Chinese water torture over being waterboarded.

  10. #280
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    i think the main reason we are seeing this present situation in Oz can be summed up in 2 words--Resources--China.
    If one or both of these things change,the whole ballgame could change IMHO
    If was thinking about buying a winter home in Queensland ,I would personally hold off for the moment.
    Florida seems safer if you had the cash ,except its a long plane ride and ..well..its the states

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