Depression in the USA - Deflation verus Inflation

[macduffy]

Indeed, Aaron. It's hard to see a dead cat bouncing this high and for so long! Perhaps we need a new term for this phenomenon!

[Aaron]

Indeed, Aaron. It's hard to see a dead cat bouncing this high and for so long! Perhaps we need a new term for this phenomenon!

Unprecedented Monetary Madness???

[JBmurc]

Well Aaron how has your Gold plays treated you ? If I was in your shoes I’d be spreading some funds across some better prospective micro caps gold plays like MEU - RXL- CWX etc or soon to be producers OBM , CNB as all this monetary madness is very bullish for the Gold price $2koz USD likely to be crossed before the years out.. I’m of course not only invested my own funds but the banks cheap 2.65% funds and doing the above ... last Qtr I was up $200k NZD ... should be many more positive Qtrs till we see saving in cash as a good idea again prob later this decade...

[greater fool]

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[Aaron]

Well Aaron how has your Gold plays treated you ? If I was in your shoes I’d be spreading some funds across some better prospective micro caps gold plays like MEU - RXL- CWX etc or soon to be producers OBM , CNB as all this monetary madness is very bullish for the Gold price $2koz USD likely to be crossed before the years out.. I’m of course not only invested my own funds but the banks cheap 2.65% funds and doing the above ... last Qtr I was up $200k NZD ... should be many more positive Qtrs till we see saving in cash as a good idea again prob later this decade...

They are doing OK but I haven't looked at the timeline for a while. I have them in the portfolio section in ASB Securities NCM is my biggest holding but only up 42% but that is because I bought more after a surge a couple of years ago and $30,000 more recently in an SPP. EVN 150% NST 239% and RMS 461% but these are meaningless unless I annualise this as RMS was in the bottom draw for a long time. I bought what turned out to be a tiny bit more NST in a capital raising. I am reluctant to invest more as a percentage of my modest investment funds as gold miners become too large a portion of my portfolio especially as it is very speculative for me as I don't do any research. No way would I borrow to invest in gold producers even more insane for me to invest in explorers but well done on the last quarter. I could have been significantly(for me) wealthier if I was less risk averse or had put in the effort to do some research to guide my investing but that has been true for my life to date. I guess the pain of losing capital overrides my joy when it is going up.

[JBmurc]

They are doing OK but I haven't looked at the timeline for a while. I have them in the portfolio section in ASB Securities NCM is my biggest holding but only up 42% but that is because I bought more after a surge a couple of years ago and $30,000 more recently in an SPP. EVN 150% NST 239% and RMS 461% but these are meaningless unless I annualise this as RMS was in the bottom draw for a long time. I bought what turned out to be a tiny bit more NST in a capital raising. I am reluctant to invest more as a percentage of my modest investment funds as gold miners become too large a portion of my portfolio especially as it is very speculative for me as I don't do any research. No way would I borrow to invest in gold producers even more insane for me to invest in explorers but well done on the last quarter. I could have been significantly(for me) wealthier if I was less risk averse or had put in the effort to do some research to guide my investing but that has been true for my life to date. I guess the pain of losing capital overrides my joy when it is going up.

Yes harder I have worked(study/following the market) the luckier I get IMHO..

. everyone has there risk profiles personal I'm more than happy to have 250k on tick to the bank @ 2.65%pa and have most of those funds in spec Gold(with cu,Ni,REE interests) plays on the ASX Vs say having 1-2mill tied up in rental property at this time..

..which I could as the Bank hates me using there funds for the Sharemarket and commercial property so I could sellout and join in with 80%+ of kiwis that think Res Property/term deposits/bonds etc is going be a great going forward...Personally I think I'll be adding another mill to the asset base before the 20/21Fy is out ...

Those that think its hard to make a decent return at present ,,,, If you had purchased Silver ETPMAG.asx at its lows in March you will be up over 50% at present(plus 5%+ NZD/AUD gains) 120 odd days ago ... safer than any house SILVER bullion ETF ...no earthquake or fire or crazy tenant is going affect a metal ETF

[Aaron]

Yes harder I have worked(study/following the market) the luckier I get IMHO..

. everyone has there risk profiles personal I'm more than happy to have 250k on tick to the bank @ 2.65%pa and have most of those funds in spec Gold(with cu,Ni,REE interests) plays on the ASX Vs say having 1-2mill tied up in rental property at this time..

..which I could as the Bank hates me using there funds for the Sharemarket and commercial property so I could sellout and join in with 80%+ of kiwis that think Res Property/term deposits/bonds etc is going be a great going forward...Personally I think I'll be adding another mill to the asset base before the 20/21Fy is out ...

Those that think its hard to make a decent return at present ,,,, If you had purchased Silver ETPMAG.asx at its lows in March you will be up over 50% at present(plus 5%+ NZD/AUD gains) 120 odd days ago ... safer than any house SILVER bullion ETF ...no earthquake or fire or crazy tenant is going affect a metal ETF

Watching gold closing in on $1,900 so quickly I am sorely tempted to become a momentum investor but would need some sort of exit strategy. I would have thought the price of gold can change direction quite rapidly. I guess I would need to see more Monetary Madness as in my view the rally in gold will continue if central banks continue on their retarded ways.

[JBmurc]

Watching gold closing in on $1,900 so quickly I am sorely tempted to become a momentum investor but would need some sort of exit strategy. I would have thought the price of gold can change direction quite rapidly. I guess I would need to see more Monetary Madness as in my view the rally in gold will continue if central banks continue on their retarded ways.

Gold could take a breather for sure ..but the BULL trend is in place and has been that way IMHO since it broke the weekly Supertrend late 2018.. now Gold will need to crash below 1700 to see this trend broken so some room at present for a breather...

So Marco wise Gold and now SILVER(which recently smashed into a weekly bullish supertrend) are in place ....

Micro wise we kiwis are very lucky to have one of the best PM mining nations in the world next door ...Aus #1 biggest exporter of GOLD
So ASX brilliant ....then we must look over good prospects on the ASX ...for me its the best Mgm+F/A+T/A =

Like I was saying to friends and family back in march ....BUY OBM.asx ....why purely as it was a no brainer BUY ....80mill Mrktcap ....2Moz Gold resource ,1mtpa Gold
Plant, 270mill tax credits,20mill cash balance etc etc the SP went from sub 10c to 33c high which was passed yesterday but as pulled-back

Now OBM has just raised 55mill so they are fully funded to Gold Production 1Q21 ... I still think OBM 220mill cap are great buying at current levels....Silver ..I would look at MKR I purchased my first lot yesterday..Plant + producing Gold at present

Explorer wise for me pretty much same as developers/producers ....grade + widths are king ....CWX is one I hold that has been quiet and missed much of the hype we see with many others F/A sound with J/V with RIO,FMG,IGO majors .... but when you look at their HILL800 prospects with 92.7m @ 3.22g/t Au from 2.3m (H8DD006)
 43m @ 4.24g/t Au, 0.3% Cu are massive large hits that if they were announced at present would see the SP double ...

I have a few others as I like to spread my risk / reward ...

the fear of buying to lose all your money only makes sense if you're a BUY and forget type investor..that doesn't do the hard work ...

IMHO you throw say 50k across the above 3x your have 100k before 2Q21

[Aaron]

Cheers for that JB. You are forcing me to make an effort but I will most likely procrastinate.

[Aaron]

Wonder if I am too late or if the party is just getting started. Gold 2% in a day and silver 7-8%.

Sometimes I should just follow my gut. although results do vary.

If it does keep going it is quite scary as on a large scale it could mean a loss of faith in currencies which was my concern as I was hoping for a downturn in the financial markets before a currency crisis. A loss of faith in currency also means inflation is on its way an inevitable result of money printing. Although that said it pisses me off every time I hear we don't have any inflation. House prices compounding at 6% a year is substantial inflation. Stop bulls**ting.