Depression in the USA - Deflation verus Inflation

[Aaron]

Gold could take a breather for sure ..but the BULL trend is in place and has been that way IMHO since it broke the weekly Supertrend late 2018.. now Gold will need to crash below 1700 to see this trend broken so some room at present for a breather...

So Marco wise Gold and now SILVER(which recently smashed into a weekly bullish supertrend) are in place ....

Micro wise we kiwis are very lucky to have one of the best PM mining nations in the world next door ...Aus #1 biggest exporter of GOLD
So ASX brilliant ....then we must look over good prospects on the ASX ...for me its the best Mgm+F/A+T/A =

Like I was saying to friends and family back in march ....BUY OBM.asx ....why purely as it was a no brainer BUY ....80mill Mrktcap ....2Moz Gold resource ,1mtpa Gold
Plant, 270mill tax credits,20mill cash balance etc etc the SP went from sub 10c to 33c high which was passed yesterday but as pulled-back

Now OBM has just raised 55mill so they are fully funded to Gold Production 1Q21 ... I still think OBM 220mill cap are great buying at current levels....Silver ..I would look at MKR I purchased my first lot yesterday..Plant + producing Gold at present

Explorer wise for me pretty much same as developers/producers ....grade + widths are king ....CWX is one I hold that has been quiet and missed much of the hype we see with many others F/A sound with J/V with RIO,FMG,IGO majors .... but when you look at their HILL800 prospects with 92.7m @ 3.22g/t Au from 2.3m (H8DD006)
 43m @ 4.24g/t Au, 0.3% Cu are massive large hits that if they were announced at present would see the SP double ...

I have a few others as I like to spread my risk / reward ...

the fear of buying to lose all your money only makes sense if you're a BUY and forget type investor..that doesn't do the hard work ...

IMHO you throw say 50k across the above 3x your have 100k before 2Q21

I've thrown $30k at it possibly at the peak but will see if it is $60k by the 30/06/2021. If it craps out I will blame myself for not doing the research. If your right I might have to go skiing in Queenstown next winter and shout you dinner.

[JBmurc]

What price did u get in the end ...

[Aaron]

What price did u get in the end ...

Including fees obm .406 mkr .34 and cwx .205 down 12.56% up 13.24% down 7.32% respectively. Roughly $10k in each company, no thought involved or appreciation of risk. I appreciate I acted rashly and will get around to looking at their annual reports and possibly getting scared out eventually. I hope your profit taking doesn't drop the price too much. Totally relying on your post which is insane as everyone should do their own research.

Fed speech last night confirms interest rates low forever and when the flow through from the pandemic hits the economy further, possibly more money printing to ensure no big company fails. Good for gold in my view. Oil below $50 dollars a barrel so one big input at a low cost. Labour might not be pushing hard for increases in the current employment climate but once we get inflation in things other than assets who knows.

I got caught up in the speed and size of the increases, a pull back expected from here. That said I usually buy near the top or bail out way too early. Gold featuring in a lot more news articles lately, sometimes feeds on itself and carries on way beyond what I would consider reasonable. That said I have no idea what a reasonable price for gold is.

[macduffy]

That said I have no idea what a reasonable price for gold is.

I don't think anyone does, Aaron. The POG moves according to changes in fear and greed on the part of investors and the usual supply and demand factors. An exaggerated version of all markets, or so it seems to me.

[JBmurc]

Including fees obm .406 mkr .34 and cwx .205 down 12.56% up 13.24% down 7.32% respectively. Roughly $10k in each company, no thought involved or appreciation of risk. I appreciate I acted rashly and will get around to looking at their annual reports and possibly getting scared out eventually. I hope your profit taking doesn't drop the price too much. Totally relying on your post which is insane as everyone should do their own research.

Fed speech last night confirms interest rates low forever and when the flow through from the pandemic hits the economy further, possibly more money printing to ensure no big company fails. Good for gold in my view. Oil below $50 dollars a barrel so one big input at a low cost. Labour might not be pushing hard for increases in the current employment climate but once we get inflation in things other than assets who knows.

I got caught up in the speed and size of the increases, a pull back expected from here. That said I usually buy near the top or bail out way too early. Gold featuring in a lot more news articles lately, sometimes feeds on itself and carries on way beyond what I would consider reasonable. That said I have no idea what a reasonable price for gold is.

Right well MKR is going very well IMHO I'd be tempted to take profits on them and put a sell order at 49.5c etc... and take the 45% return for less than a week hold (if you get the trade) I personal think they have run too quick compared to the advancement of project any many issues could see their SP pullback to flatline till results match Mktcap which is closing in on $125mill @50c and they do have 24.3mill in debt. (If you did take the profits I would recommend the likes of RXL that was sold off after pretty solid results)

OBM HOLD TILL Production ...CWX see how J/Vs + Hill 800 drilling goes late this year.... I don't think you paid overs for these two ...

[Aaron]

Right well MKR is going very well IMHO I'd be tempted to take profits on them and put a sell order at 49.5c etc... and take the 45% return for less than a week hold (if you get the trade) I personal think they have run too quick compared to the advancement of project any many issues could see their SP pullback to flatline till results match Mktcap which is closing in on $125mill @50c and they do have 24.3mill in debt. (If you did take the profits I would recommend the likes of RXL that was sold off after pretty solid results)

OBM HOLD TILL Production ...CWX see how J/Vs + Hill 800 drilling goes late this year.... I don't think you paid overs for these two ...

I was going to hold them all until June next year but will sell MKR on your advice.

I don't know that 49.5cents will be achievable if silver dropped 3.5% overnight. I will put in a sell at that price and see what happens. maybe I should sell at market $3,000 in 3days is not to be sniffed at.

I feel bad now you are having to take time to hold my hand. I tend to buy and hold.

I hope this isn't because you don't have any faith or conviction in the long term prospects for your picks??

[Aaron]

MKR sold for .50 less fees on the opening of the market.
I was thinking I would hold everything until June 2021 and see how it went. That way I was not abusing your advice assuming it works out.

Don't like to use your hard work as I am bringing nothing to the discussion. I guess I will compound the returns into RXL. But I guess the investments your looking at could probably disappear on a bad drilling result or an unexpected company announcement so you need to be a bit more up to date and light footed than I am.

Currently gold related articles and You Tube clips are ramping up. Anything to do with gold may continue up on nothing more than optimism. US GDP historically bad report but not a huge reaction from the market. I guess the next quarter is expected to rebound. Or a lot of money printing will be required to fill the hole.

[Aaron]

just had a quick look at RXL. To June 2019 burnt through $6.5million for the year with 3.9Mill cash left. A quick look at the announcements in ASB Securities indicates latest raising was for $988,000 for shares valued at .024cent less than half of what I would be paying today on the secondary market. Not sure how that works.

[macduffy]

Thoughts on "Depression in the USA", anyone?

[Aaron]

Thoughts on "Depression in the USA", anyone?

A historic quarterly contraction in GDP in the US could indicate a depression on the way but no big drop on the US indexes might indicate otherwise.

I wonder if it caused MKR to rise to almost 60cents today with me missing a nearly 20% one day rise by selling at .50cents.