Depression in the USA - Deflation verus Inflation

[STRAT]

Well, at least not until after the Bejing games anyways

The Olimpics? Are you subscribing to some Macdunkology there Shasta?

[shasta]

The Olimpics? Are you subscribing to some Macdunkology there Shasta?

LOL macdunk & i last saw eye to eye in HQP many moons ago.

The writing is on the wall, we all just have to read it, perhaps it may be in chinese characters

[STRAT]

Shasta.
Regarding that article I posted I recon as the US feels the squeese from being stuck between a rock and a hard place they are going to take a very American stance with the Insto's/countries they owe big time. By that I mean they will start playing the part of the bully boy. How and when their creditors react will seal our fate one way or the other. I think it will all come to a head this year.
I previously thought around the end of the year but Trichas scary posts have got me thinkin maybe sooner.

[shasta]

Shasta.
Regarding that article I posted I recon as the US feels the squeese from being stuck between a rock and a hard place they are going to take a very American stance with the Insto's/countries they owe big time. By that I mean they will start playing the part of the bully boy. How and when their creditors react will seal our fate one way or the other. I think it will all come to a head this year. I previously thought around the end of the year but Trichas scary posts have got me thinkin maybe sooner.

People have to stop thinking of the US as the be all & end all, China, India & ultimately Europe will overtake the US, its merely a matter of time.

I still content things will go "pear shaped" shortly after a successful Bejing games.

[STRAT]

People have to stop thinking of the US as the be all & end all,

Not yet I recon. That is a likely senerio but a shift of that size in the order of things will take time and a lot of pain. If they fall off the cliff a hell of a lot of us are gonna go over with em Just look at how much their many foreign shareholders stand to loose if the US goes belly up

[FarmerGeorge]

I like the definition "anything that charges 2 and 20". But I suppose that's not of much help to us in this situation. I have been lucky enough to attend numerous presentations of, and personally meet, some very knowledgable people over here who are active in the hedge fund industry, either as analysts, fund managers, endowment heads, or FoF managers. Admittedly, this has given me a skewed vision of the upsides of HFs but I've also been lucky enough to get many of the stats and facts about the industry which are generally overlooked by mainstream journalists in the press.
If there are any specific questions around HFs that anyone has then feel free to PM me and I'm happy to pass through the information I have, or try to point you in the right direction.
The two things I've found most interesting are these: first the HF industry growth figures are a bit wonky because much of this growth is simply coming from propriety trading desks closing and managers going on their own, and second the global mutual/pension/insurance fund assets collectively are about USD60T, while the HF industry is seldom estimated to be more than USD2T, perhaps levered two to one on average. This may put into perspective the claim that hedge funds created or are driving the current problems.

[tricha]

Not yet I recon. That is a likely senerio but a shift of that size in the order of things will take time and a lot of pain. If they fall off the cliff a hell of a lot of us are gonna go over with em Just look at how much their many foreign shareholders stand to loose if the US goes belly up

I'll sleep like a baby knowing I'm partly cashed up after selling my beloved ADY, the market is in no mood for gambling stocks or potentially multi baggers, period, it is past tense.
I'm sticking to gold and oil producers with little debt and cash flow or impending cash flow and huge upside and a little cash to weather the storm.
If another US bank crashes, I shudder to think .........




Fed battles to restore confidence

US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is battling the credit crisis

The US central bank is expected to slash interest rates on Tuesday to help boost confidence in the US economy.
Economists are forecasting that the benchmark US interest rate will be cut by up to 1%. The decision will be made at 1815 GMT (1415 EST).
Policy makers are hoping to ease the credit crisis which caused the emergency sale of investment bank Bear Stearns over the weekend.
Investors will also be watching results from Lehman Brothers and Goldman Sachs.
Both banks are expected to announce a sharp fall in profits, when they report results later on Tuesday.
MAIN SUB-PRIME LOSSES SO FAR
Citigroup: $18bn
Merrill Lynch: $14.1bn
UBS: $13.5bn
Morgan Stanley $9.4bn
HSBC: $3.4bn
Bear Stearns: $3.2bn
Deutsche Bank: $3.2bn
Bank of America: $3bn
Barclays: $2.6bn
Royal Bank of Scotland: $2.6bn
Freddie Mac: $2bn
JP Morgan Chase: $3.2bn
Credit Suisse: $1bn
Wachovia: $1.1bn
IKB: $2.6bn
Paribas: $197m
Source: Company reports



Timeline: Sub-prime crisis
Q&A: Bear Stearns crisis


Lehman Brothers shares plunged 20% on Monday, its biggest ever one-day fall.
Investors were panicked by the sale of rival investment bank Bear Stearns over the weekend.
It faced bankruptcy when clients lost confidence in the firm and started to withdraw funds.
Many consider the $240m (£120m) price tag paid by JP Morgan Chase to be a bargain.
The US Federal Reserve has been trying to restore confidence in the banking business.
Bank have been unwilling to lend to each other because they are worried about losses on investments backed by US mortgages.
Those investments have been hit by the slump in the US housing market.
To help restore confidence economists expect the Fed to cut the benchmark, Fed funds rate, by between 0.75% and 1%. "There is no reason for the Fed not to be aggressive," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "The economy is in a recession, the financial system is in disarray and inflation is low." he added.

P.S - U R so right Sector, spot the mistake.

[tricha]

yes, I didnt think yould been sleeping much lately, they were much tougher in the ancient times - living in caves and all

relax Tony, take your meds man

I'm disappointed Sector u missed the mistake

[tricha]

you always make mistakes T

I can`t keep up and look after you ALL the time

I guess so Sector, I'll take a dose of Lithium and hit the sack.
Dam that feels better all ready

[STRAT]

I'll sleep like a baby knowing I'm partly cashed up after selling my beloved ADY, the market is in no mood for gambling stocks or potentially multi baggers, period, it is past tense.
I'm sticking to gold and oil producers with little debt and cash flow or impending cash flow and huge upside and a little cash to weather the storm.
If another US bank crashes, I shudder to think .........

Hi Tricha,
A few here have got stuck into you for selling up some and its amusing because at the end of the day each of us have different risk profiles and each has varied amounts of our net worth hanging out in the breeze. Personally I think you are being prudent and there are plenty who would agree. Personally I still think it comes down to evaluating each stock individually but I have a lot less at stake than many.