Quote Originally Posted by dumbass View Post
right enough of that emotional rubbish and back to business.

i am going to start reviewing US stocks and draw up a portfolio to buy into the market.

This is what i believe to be the final leg lower and should now at last provide some buying opportunities in the next few months.

no hurry as i think were going lower, possibly a lot lower, but the us market was first in and
therefore will be first out.

anyone interested in contributing.
I'll have a crack at contributing D

Looking a very long trends gives a clearer version still.
Why I do this is that very short thinking is interupted by market noise, so the longer you track the clearer the picture however at a disadvantage to the "now" investing. Mind you it does indicate future direction ..well sort of...
Below is my updated crappy chart of the 36 year DOW. Note the Dow went from secular Bull to Secular bear phase with the 6year trend break back in 2001(indicated on the chart with black vertical lines).
Usually what happens long term in a secular Bear cycle phase is that higher highs are rare and not by much. Lower Lows are likely but normally it will trade between the two.Also a secular bear cycle averages 13 years so roughly once can expect the bear to die after 2014. Therefore during this Secular Bear Cycle expect a trading zone between 12000 and 8000 with rare small break outs on the topside (14000ish in 2007).
At the moment the TA short term using my chart looks to be a leveling out at 9500 TA Target for now (end of wave A?).

It is interesting to point out that historically if you invest at the very beginning of a Secular Bear Market and withdraw at the very end your capital gain is near 0%. Invest the same way during a secular Bull cycle and your capital gains are huge. Therefore the argument for long term investing depends on the secular periods of time. Superannuation a good bet???

So... the argument is... don't expect much in very long term investing strategy except disappointment. It is best to establish shorter term investment strategies until the secular bear cycle runs out of steam...hopefully earlier than later say 2014.

Also interesting is the 12 year trend line is at 10000 not far away and this is above the TA Target of 9500 so the near future looks grim as it is now expected that the 12 year trendline will be broken at some point of time.

D...you should be able to apply the EW waves to this..If I'm right this long term chart shows we are still experiencing the super cycle A wave The B wave (when it happens) will be the next bull market phase I guess....I don't want to think about the C wave.



Note...reference for the DOW S&P

NZX is in secular Bull cycle or was until recently ...(Having trouble collecting long term data for determination)