Dow Jones Ind Av

[Hoop]

DOW closed at 8934 (up 298)
DOW broke upwards today out of its medium term (3month) downtrend channel....this is positive upward move.

Where to from here?

TA wise... huge band of resistance levels around the 9500-10500 range The DOW going to have to work hard to break through this band...maybe a to harder nut to crack under this present climate. (it broke through 8950 resistance level intra-day today but fell back)

So with this v shape type of activity happening maybe at 8934 it is too late to enter long this time round. Thoughts.

If the DOW reaches and respects the 9500 band that is a good rally of 9500-7500 = 2000 . This would equate to a 37% Rally... have to be extremely nimble (or lucky) to catch that type of gain in this tough V shaped market.

Looking at the first chart it looks easy in hindsight...jump in long at the bottom channel line there were 3 opportunities in the last 3 months (2 realistically) to make a huge gain.....however now the index has broken out of that channel the rules have changed.

[arco]

Hello Hoop

Don't trade DJIA myself, but the 4H YMZ8 chart has just printed 2 Shooting Stars, so that may be mildly bearish at least in the short term.

The real body of the perfect Shooting Star and a prior candle's real body ideally should have a gap between them and no lower wick but this is not the case here although it is not a absolute necessity. Ahead Kumo on the IKH has presently turned thinly bearish.

On completion of the next 2 x 4H candle at 4/8PM a more clearer picture may emerge.

rgds -arco

[arco]

Hello Hoop

Don't trade DJIA myself, but the 4H YMZ8 chart has just printed 2 Shooting Stars, so that may be mildly bearish at least in the short term.

The real body of the perfect Shooting Star and a prior candle's real body ideally should have a gap between them and no lower wick but this is not the case here although it is not a absolute necessity. Ahead Kumo on the IKH has presently turned thinly bearish.

On completion of the next 2 x 4H candle at 4/8PM a more clearer picture may emerge.

rgds -arco

Depending on your entry point and appetite for risk there has been up to +280 points in move down so far.

arco

[dumbass]

Well it looked like this baby was rallying but now the rally has been fully retraced and appears a downtrend is underway again .

SP 500 took out critical support last night and i would suspect dow is going to confirm by taking out 8000 pretty soon.

This looks like the final wave down but the bad news is its only the major A wave of this bear market.

B wave will bring a rally probably around 50 % of wave A and then back down for the C wave.

[dumbass]

Today the DOW reached a level not seen since Oct 1997, An entire decade wiped out in 16 months,
however for the first time in a very long time there are some signs that this A wave may be coming to a conclusion.
probably a small rally from here and then a new terminal low could signal the start of a rally higher (B wave )
i would expect to see some divergence in indicators across all time frames and it looks like this is shaping up.
shopping list ready and waiting for confirmation sub 7000

[peat]

At the end of trading on Monday, Feb. 23, 2009, Robert Prechter closed the most successful trading recommendation of his 30-year career. His advice to "cover" the position came near the end of the trading day, when subscribers received the February 2009 issue of his Elliott Wave Theorist. This closed a “fully leveraged short position” he recommended to Theorist subscribers on July 17, 2007, when the S&P was at 1550. At the time of publication on Monday, Feb. 23, the S&P was trading below 750

[airedale]

Hi Peat, that is impressive. At the time it was contrary to most pundits' opinions.

[peat]

its their promo needless to say I didnt get the newsletter at the time.
I dont doubt it tho. He is a strong contrarian, and it would also seem a permabear.

[arco]

I wonder what his % of right/wrong is.

I believe Crest of the Tidal Wave was way out on timing

[peat]

exactly arco... i've re-examined those analyses they gave some time ago during their free week (I posted a few) and it wasnt awe-spiring

its easy to make lots of calls and then promote the ones that worked

what will be interesing now to is to see whether we do have any sort of rally over the next few days/weeks/months.