Dow Jones Ind Av

[peat]

so whats everyone here thinking about the US equity market? Dow or SP500
I'm reading the freebie stuff from gann global - his latest comment is :

Today’s trade in the S&P 500 and Soybean complex have not
compromised the integrity of our forecasts or our trading patterns
for potentially entering short positions.
Rather, they have increased oth the probability for dramatic declines
if the reversals take place and the likelihood the overall declines
will be more extensive.

From what I've been reading his take is that a break thru 922 will demonstrate a decline is underway and to short at 916 (presumably that will be confirmation)

Seems to be a pretty common viewpoint in that I read it somewhere else as well.

the butterfly pattern I posted ages ago has potentially played out now. but from a pattern view there always remains the possibility of a lot more and which one should position oneself for , on the other hand theres a lot of indecision showing in the candles on the daily, and divergence on the rsi. also looking a bit triple toppish.

so i guess we let it tell us.

[peat]

colin twiggs thinks 'the trend is about to bend

The S&P 500 displays a similar pattern to the Dow, consolidating between 930 and 950. Weak bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow (21-Day) would be strengthened if the indicator retreats to zero. Breakout above 950 would indicate a rally to test 1000, while reversal below 930 would signal the end of the bear market rally


down to 922 now on the S+P.

[dumbass]

i reckon he's a little early in calling a top but it looks highly probable its in or at worst very close.

912 is a key pivot , ascending wedge has broken to the downside.

[arco]

HI All

Using your chart DB.
Pivot 4,5 (6 and 7 not shown) creates a Bullish BF for the short term - maybe a test towards the underside lower red TL. Once tested - bang goes yer mangoes!

Using your green line doest it also look like the start of a H&S top. Already you can see the potential first shoulder (3) and head

arco

[Hoop]

Yes Peat...is the trend going to bend??

What nobody seems to focus on is the fact that most of the Global Stock Exchange indexes are in primary uptrends except for the big three DOW S&P500 and FTSE.

The million dollar questions are ..it looks a better than 50/50 chance that the big 3's bear market rally is nearing an end...therefore, is their bear market downtrend resumption going to be big enough to end the primary uptrends of the other indices ...or will the big 3 recover quickly to join the rest of the world. (breaking up through 9000, 1000, 4650 respectively)

Of interest: - The 2 countries involved with the big 3 indexes (DOW S&P500 and FTSE) are/were the biggest contributors to the Iraq War effort.
Don't know how much it has cost the British economy, but some very low profile figures from the USA suggest that over 30% of the USA debt is Iraq related.

[dumbass]

hi hoop , seems incongruous to me that other markets could maintain an uptrend as the US markets are taken down.

[Mick100]

hi hoop , seems incongruous to me that other markets could maintain an uptrend as the US markets are taken down.

It's going to happen one day DA - I don't know when

china is rapidly evolving from an export to a consumption economy

[dumbass]

sure will Mick but not in the context of this bear market.

[Hoop]

sure will Mick but not in the context of this bear market.

Yeah ..I sadly agree that a big US equity decline would still have a big influence on the rest of the worlds equity markets......but is a diminishing influence as China grows at a faster rate.

...but who says there is going to be a steep decline of the DOW S&P???

there is a strong band of supports between 7900 -8200 a very strong support level 8250 and another lesser support created recently at 8600.


On the top side..the 9000 resistance line is the biggee (primary resistance level) it is very strong and also adding to this resistance is the bottom end of the kumo cloud is also hanging at 9000 and lasting in this position until mid August. Also the Bollinger bands are still wide signaling no change of the trend.

So a good bet would be a continuation of the right hand shoulder creation with the index range bound between 8250 and 9000 for next month or two.


This shoulder creation scenario for the big 3 DOW S&P500 and FTSE would not jeopardise the other world equity markets upward recovery trend. It's hard to imagine that all these other markets (not only equity market) would have all given a false bull market uptrend signals.

[peat]

912 is a key pivot

interesting. gann global have released their update this morning at 6:39am (tho its delayed as its only subscriber calibre not actual subscriber) and it says to sell at 912 with a stop at 956.23 (on the cash index)
Price right now = 911.9 so they are IN with a short.

Heres a screen shot you see he bases his trade on soy beans on the S+P as well.