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  1. #131
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    morning peat,i reckon you could probably get a better entry than 912 as there should be a bounce from this level as market is getting quite oversold short term.
    alternatively i would wait for a break of 912 , i allow a 5 point margin of error on the key pivot points so looking at 907.

  2. #132
    Guru Dr_Who's Avatar
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    Just out of interest, why do you guys prefer to trade the S&P instead of the dow?

    I ve never traded any of these index and was just curious. Thanks.
    Having got ourselves into a debt-induced economic crisis, the only permanent way out is to reduce the debt – either directly by abolishing large slabs of it, or indirectly by inflating it away.

  3. #133
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    yes I tend to agree DA

    Dr - for me its because its a smaller contract. Its also very liquid tho whether more so than the DOW or not I wouldnt be sure.

    As an index based on a larger range of companies it probably reflects the market as a whole better but practically its a pretty perfect correlation with the DOW
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  4. #134
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    Quote Originally Posted by arco View Post
    bang goes yer mangoes!


  5. #135
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  6. #136
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    I'll have a Panty Dropping Shandy to go with that

  7. #137
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    Cooking curry requires so much ingredients and time that it is much easier to eat out.... YUMMY!

    Having got ourselves into a debt-induced economic crisis, the only permanent way out is to reduce the debt – either directly by abolishing large slabs of it, or indirectly by inflating it away.

  8. #138
    action-reaction arco's Avatar
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    Glenn Neely (EW) on the S&P - below 500 prediction

    http://www.prweb.com/releases/2009/06/prweb2537224.htm
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  9. #139
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    Thanks Arco. flicked L/T superfunds into cash funds tonight. Hopefully the wave goes at least another week. Swap over is slow.

  10. #140
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    Quote Originally Posted by arco View Post
    Glenn Neely (EW) on the S&P - below 500 prediction

    http://www.prweb.com/releases/2009/06/prweb2537224.htm
    Interesting article Arco:

    Dumbass ..you using Elliott Waves analysis also predicts a big downwave ..correct?

    If this scenario happens what are the leading indicator signs ....

    ...End of price rising trend in commodities and primary downtrend resumes.
    ...US$ index breaks up through 83 rises above the 2008-2009 double top.
    ...VIX rises suddenly (volatility)breaking its primary downtrend.
    ...Sudden fall in interest rates (e.g 5yr swaps).
    ...Loss of appetite for investing..e.g Capital raising failures.
    ...Unusual large Movements of money towards Super power currencies and their Govt guaranteed financial institutions.
    ... Sudden interest in short selling of equities.
    ...Unexpected deflation data. move from slow increasing inflation to sudden deflation.
    ...many others but all I can think of "off the top of my head".

    Affects of a S&P500 index 500 figure towards the World's economic system

    Another financial melt down...more money evaporation...possible global financial collapse this time.
    More money needed to be injected into the system that is already stretched.
    Extended recession and more severe (remember equity markets recover 58% through a recession rule). Probably recession word replaced by Depression word.
    Depression equals 20%+ unemployed.
    Behavioural scientists theorise that anarchy trigger occurs at about the 23% unemployment point
    No-where for people with money to hide...outside the super powers the rest of the currencies devalue and superpowers throw up their financial borders barriers.
    Interest rates going negative
    Trade slows and protectionism reigns supreme.
    Company collapses
    Social misery, crime, social system breakdown..etc
    System collapse possible. Sudden changing of laws and regulations.
    Etc Etc

    For the investor
    Misery

    except long term ..is excellent
    Sudden end to secular bear cycles allowing no limit to old equity boom peaks.. so sudden and rapid recovery.
    Stupid and costly laws have vanished giving people and companies room to move and extra profits. (breath of fresh air)


    Sounds very similar to the 1929-1933 Depression era...huh?


    The question has to be raised can this happen again ..now??

    I personally still rate this as a low chance unless a black swan event occurs.
    ...I can sadly visualise one happening..mutation of the Swine flu virus to a more deadly form and creating a second wave of infection and less responsive to the new vaccine being created at the moment. The last H1N1 virus pandemic was in 1918 .. which did exactly that..mutated.

    On a happier note for investors
    We have had 3 flu pandemics in the last 100 years and it has not affected the Equity markets over that medium term.
    Strange as it may seem it was after the 1916-1917 bear when the deadly flu pandemic occurred in 1918-1919 the DOW actually grew +10% and +30% respectively. The DOW was in a secular bear market cycle at that time.

    During the 1957-58 flu pandemic (asian flu) the DOW was -17% and +34% respectively. DOW was in the middle a secular bull market cycle

    During the 1968-1969 Hong Kong flu pandemic the DOW was +4% and -15% repectively. DOW was in a secular bear market cycle.
    Last edited by Hoop; 19-06-2009 at 10:17 AM. Reason: Additional content

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