Dow Jones Ind Av

[arco]

Guys

Here is my S&P prediction.

Down to the 500 area, and eventually a move up to circa 1200-1300

Not sure how long all that will take

arco



.

[dumbass]

right guys thoughts appreciated
looking for a short entry , 5 waves down and 3 wave correction in progress.
the way i see it 935 is the critical level and must hold, if thats taken out we are going higher.
923 looks interesting.
im going full in and some especially if it gets close to 935.

[ananda77]

Guys

Here is my S&P prediction.

Down to the 500 area, and eventually a move up to circa 1200-1300

Not sure how long all that will take

arco

...totally agree on a long term basis;

...there is a possibility that SPX 500 *956 was a temporary top, motivating the market to test the March low, but it is too early to make this call right now; however:

...*956 did not coincide with extreme readings usually connected with important changes in market trends; consequently, at present it seems likely, that the current leg up is not finished yet and will make a new high after the current correction has run it's course and that the March low will hold...

right guys thoughts appreciated
looking for a short entry , 5 waves down and 3 wave correction in progress.
the way i see it 935 is the critical level and must hold, if thats taken out we are going higher.
923 looks interesting.
im going full in and some especially if it gets close to 935.

...it's option expiry trading tonight and yes, there is outside potential for the SPX 500 to test *956; would not like to be short above *935 however;

Kind Regards

[Hoop]

...totally agree on a long term basis;
Guys

Here is my S&P prediction.

Down to the 500 area, and eventually a move up to circa 1200-1300

Not sure how long all that will take

arco
...there is a possibility that SPX 500 *956 was a temporary top, motivating the market to test the March low, but it is too early to make this call right now; however:.......................................... ..

Kind Regards

Disagree Guys... My post possibly should'nt be on the Forex site but...

Your figures don't make long term sense.

Using short to medium indicators relating to short to medium time periods charts, you are at risk of GIGO (garbage in garbage out).
A bit llike watching TV with the sides of the screen reduced...you can miss so much and not know about it.

This simple chart below shows you where Hoop's thinking comes from and this may help understand what happens when the sides of the screen is reduced and the bigger picture is missing.

Misreading a chart is a common error especially when all the facts aren't on the chart Example...Below is a 30 year chart (long enough you think??)

What do you see???

Chart isshowing an uptrend ending with a double top...without much thinking you can say.. OK!.. long time period chart...big long bull market that ended with the 810 (not drawn in) breached ..looks all downhill from here bring out the megaphone and yell... "the end of the world is near!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"


Looking at that 30year S&P500 chart again...and apply a different thinking strategy..This time think much more long term more than 30 years and say is there a bigger picture????
The answer is "yes"



A...Chart doesn't show the complete picture.. There isn't a long Bull market cycle that has just been broken (810) ...its a chart illusion That long bull market cycle actually ended in year 2000. See Secular cycles (80 year)chart
B...Apply common sense..Indexes reflect market growth rates (associated (correlated) with global population increases) so sudden drops to the depths of 200 150 etc can only happen under a Global Disaster scenario such as killing about 50% of the worlds population or huge sudden destruction of the business market trade systems..(asteroid hitting earth?).
Index of 500 would equal the great depression of 1933 (see coppock chart)
C...The ultra long and very reliable (for long term investors) Coppock indicator shows up GIGO charting fallacies (see the above Chart) and tells a truer picture of what is really happening (because the Coppock indicator is using information from an earlier period of the chart you can't see.
Note: Good News!!!The Coppock indicator has just recently begun to rise from an abnormally low level even by Bear market cycle period standards. The last time the Coppock was this low was in 1933.



See article (charts included)

One has to ask themselves could this indicator turn around and go down too even deeper lows Note: it would take may months to turn a coppock trend around again and head lower and in that period of time the trend of the index analysed would have to be in continuous decline. So your answer would be that is only remotely possible




OK ...I have mentioned that the long term (secular) bull market cycle (1985-2000) finished in 2000...so we are now in the middle of a long term (secular) bear cycle...OK.. so what would you normally expect to happen in this long (secular)bear market period???

See the 80 year DOW chart below



The secular bear market cycles (red) characteristically are long term of more than 10 years they have flat bottoms and flat tops....ahh haaa you say referring to that 1929-33 Bear... yes it was an unusual cycle and if the index was another more historical base (remember reduce screen!!!) going back to the 1600's even that 1929-42 era would be seen as uncharacteristic ...so a more than a 1 in a 100 year happening....(maybe 1 in 400 year is closer to reality)


What I am trying to point out is the fact that while 500 on the S&P500 is possible there is a much greater chance that it won't happen

[dumbass]

one has to ask themselves could this indicator turn around and go down too even deeper lows Note: it would take may months to turn a coppock trend around again and head lower and in that period of time the trend of the index analysed would have to be in continuous decline. So your answer would be that is only remotely possible

hi hoop im not really sure what your saying but a big hole in your logic is that an indicator will diverge from price. djia may fallen massively from here without a new low reading on indicator.
As you can see in your own example the djia posted new high after new high and right up to all time high yet the indicator was not printing new highs.in fact the high indicator reading was posted late 1970 so seems like coppick reading and price reading are some what a poor correlation.

In fact id go as far as to say GIGO.

[winner69]

hi hoop im not really sure what your saying but a big hole in your logic is that an indicator will diverge from price. djia may fallen massively from here without a new low reading on indicator.
As you can see in your own example the djia posted new high after new high and right up to all time high yet the indicator was not printing new highs.in fact the high indicator reading was posted late 1970 so seems like coppick reading and price reading are some what a poor correlation.

In fact id go as far as to say GIGO.

Coppock is only intended to signal when a rally has been established (or times to buy for long term investors) and doesb't mean very much in rising markets. Also it is calculated on monthly timeframes so not entirely designed to tell you what mught happen tomorrow.

Hoops pictures are not that clear ... the Coppock has actually turned upwards .... ever so slightly

Learnt something today .... why si 11 and 14 month changes the basis of Coppocks Indicator ..... because thats how long people mourn for ..... seems as good as reason for any.

From wikipedia

Coppock, the founder of Trendex Research in San Antonio, Texas[2], was an economist. He had been asked by the Episcopal Church to identify buying opportunities for long-term investors. He thought market downturns were like bereavements and required a period of mourning. He asked the church bishops how long that normally took for people, their answer was 11 to 14 months and so he used those periods in his calculation.[3]

[dumbass]

so its really a very low sensitivity momentum indicator that has taken a rally of 45 % to give a slight uptick.
hhhhhhhhmmmmmmmmmm!

[arco]

What I am trying to point out is the fact that while 500 on the S&P500 is possible there is a much greater chance that it won't happen

The whole move from low to high is 1-16 roughly.

So take Fib 61.8 of 15 and that = target 573.

The pattern is slightly similar to a Gartley, so maybe its a possibility.

arco

[dumbass]

Market corrections are obviously a normal response to a bull market wave,the depth of the bear market correction depends upon the degree of the bull market it is correcting.
In our present situation this bear market is correcting the Supercycle bull market from 1932-2007.
At best a retest of the Mar 09 low (SPX 667) in the months ahead, at worse SPX 400.
Historically, US bear markets of this degree have taken between 23 months and 60 months to unfold. It took only 17 months for the bear market to hit the Mar 09 low.

[fungus pudding]

"A good day is one where you learn something that you'll use for the rest of your life. That's why bright kids are always so happy - every day is a good day.",

Big big big mistake to assume that bright kids are always happy. Just like bright adults, they are just as susceptible to serious depression etc.