Dow Jones Ind Av

[ananda77]

The Outlook is Not Up, But Very Widely Sideways
John P. Hussman, Ph.D.

"Valuation Update: We estimate that the S&P 500 is currently priced to deliver total returns over the next decade in the range of 6.5-9.0%, centered at an expected total return of about 7.8% annually. Stocks are modestly overvalued here, except on metrics that assume a permanent recovery to 2007's record profit margins (which were about 50% above the historical norm)."

"unfortunately, even at current prices, the S&P 500 is near 16 times normalized earnings."

"S&P 500 would have to drop by about 60% to match the best valuations that we've seen during the past 40 years. Investors shouldn't kid themselves that stocks are cheap – in the sense of being priced to deliver outstanding long-term returns – just because we've observed a wicked decline. We're not even close."

"It is a very hard sell to expect a sustained recovery in debt-financed gross investment in an economy under strong deleveraging pressure. That's particularly true since the U.S. itself has not financed a penny of the growth in U.S. gross domestic investment in more than a decade – all of the growth has been financed by foreign capital inflows via a massive current account deficit."
http://www.hussman.net/wmc/wmc090615.htm

Kind Regards

[peat]

freebie from EWI is giving some info about their count... this is on the Euro Stock indices but remains relevant

[dumbass]

So they reckon a three of a three which should mean a pretty violent down leg.
i think at the present time it does look like the market is going to go lower but it will be the nature of the move that will determine the correct count.

If its an agressive motive move lower then C wave is underway.(GREEN)

If its a messy overlapping move then it could mean the market will go higher as B wave moves up.(RED)

still reckon its a short at present moment and will make money finding out either way.

judgement day next month or so!

[Mick100]

http://www.financialsense.com/editor...2009/0619.html

[Dr_Who]

I am actually bullish on the market in the med to long term.

The market over sold the market and was factoring a depression, the worst case scenario and the bounce was just a response to the data coming out stating that we are in fact bottoming out and not anywhere near a depression.

[peat]

30 minute candles , using Heiken-Ashi. with two competing patterns.

[Dr_Who]

A sea of red in Europe market.

The Dow may be down overnight.

[dragonz]

A sea of red in Europe market.

The Dow may be down overnight.

Your right Dr. Shares, commodity prices and oil plunged overnight after a very grim World Bank forecast .

Im a bit annoyed that I hadnt set up a margin account I can short yet. Will be caos in the 1st hour of trading but a great day for trading.

Im going fishing until 4 oclock and will look at the market then.

[peat]

Gann Global update - issued on Saturday , and hence has activated

[dumbass]

thanks peat for the info coming through on email , love it!

sp500 has completed a 5 wave move and a correction is unfolding which could well be the start of major C wave.
still bearish big picture with bullish sentiment reaching levels where we could be close to a big move lower.