Dow Jones Ind Av

[dumbass]

Hi peat , you got any targets for what looks like the third wave kicking off.

That second wave was a shallow retracement which seems very bearish as you can see

from the chart very short.

[peat]

happening a bit quicker than I expected eh DA!

EWI say
A break of 10,172.20, the top of wave i of (c) of ii (circle), would confirm that wave ii (circle) was already over and the next leg down was starting (1086.75 in the S&P).

so that's already happened.....

1020 looks pretty likely based on either

1/ if wave 1 was (back to S+P numbers) 1150 - 1070 = 80 and wave 3 started at 1103 , it is likely to be larger than wave 1 , so it should extend to at least 1023, or

2/ 161 fib extension of 1150 > 1070 = 1019.8

But we shouldnt forget that being a 3rd its quite likely to go to the 261% extension which is 938.
930-950 area is an obvious place for some potential support as well being where there was congestion and resistance in May/June 2009.




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[dumbass]

my only concern is that wave 2 was so short that it wasn't a wave 2, and therefore there is a significant retracement to still happen.
stops at 1105 (top of wave 2 ?) which hopefully wont get hit as im uber short.

[peat]

yes thats why I reduced to %100 short as it means I can handle any bounce even up to previous highs. if it gets back up to anywhere near mid 1100's I will go %200 short again.

[dumbass]

what you doing up so late , you going to have a go at NFP's.
don't tell arco but i love trading the big news days.

[peat]

heheh , I generally crash before they happen (as I did last night) but if I can keep my eyes open sometimes I watch the bouncing...., I rarely trade them specifically as such tho.

so it doesnt look like too much happened on this occasion

[dumbass]

well............., closed all shorts between 1050 - 1060

looks like maybe a reversal on the go , twezzer bottom on 4h and should be a big hammer on dailys as has bounced off lower channel line.

7 short positions 360 POINTS TOTAL

i think i might be jumping early but the stress levels were getting too high and heck this could only be intermediate wave 1.

needed to lock in and hopefully will get a good retracement for another go.

totally had enough and want to throw the computer in the swimming pool.

good luck with your shorts and thanks for the help , really appreciate it.

[Dr_Who]

I like reading you guys posts, but most times I dont understand what you are on about LOL

[peat]

overdoing the leverage weakens your position in the face of adversity , like I say I think one has to be able to stand up to a significant retracement at some stage

I got another trade in and out for 10 this morning so happy with that

the daily close looks like a hammer so it found some support and there is rsi divergence on that new low now too

and yeh appreciate your comments Doctor , even though traders have to accept getting it wrong sometimes its easy not to post for fear of shame .

[dumbass]

the markets maybe at a critical juncture, tonight could be the night to decide direction for a while,well not neccessarily tonight but you get my drift.

forex markets locked down awaiting next move.

a sniff of bearish sentiment on sp 500

bearish wedge and evening star on 4h but still not completely conclusive.