Dow Jones Ind Av

[Hoop]

right enough of that emotional rubbish and back to business.

i am going to start reviewing US stocks and draw up a portfolio to buy into the market.

This is what i believe to be the final leg lower and should now at last provide some buying opportunities in the next few months.

no hurry as i think were going lower, possibly a lot lower, but the us market was first in and
therefore will be first out.

anyone interested in contributing.

I'll have a crack at contributing D

Looking a very long trends gives a clearer version still.
Why I do this is that very short thinking is interupted by market noise, so the longer you track the clearer the picture however at a disadvantage to the "now" investing. Mind you it does indicate future direction ..well sort of...
Below is my updated crappy chart of the 36 year DOW. Note the Dow went from secular Bull to Secular bear phase with the 6year trend break back in 2001(indicated on the chart with black vertical lines).
Usually what happens long term in a secular Bear cycle phase is that higher highs are rare and not by much. Lower Lows are likely but normally it will trade between the two.Also a secular bear cycle averages 13 years so roughly once can expect the bear to die after 2014. Therefore during this Secular Bear Cycle expect a trading zone between 12000 and 8000 with rare small break outs on the topside (14000ish in 2007).
At the moment the TA short term using my chart looks to be a leveling out at 9500 TA Target for now (end of wave A?).

It is interesting to point out that historically if you invest at the very beginning of a Secular Bear Market and withdraw at the very end your capital gain is near 0%. Invest the same way during a secular Bull cycle and your capital gains are huge. Therefore the argument for long term investing depends on the secular periods of time. Superannuation a good bet???

So... the argument is... don't expect much in very long term investing strategy except disappointment. It is best to establish shorter term investment strategies until the secular bear cycle runs out of steam...hopefully earlier than later say 2014.

Also interesting is the 12 year trend line is at 10000 not far away and this is above the TA Target of 9500 so the near future looks grim as it is now expected that the 12 year trendline will be broken at some point of time.

D...you should be able to apply the EW waves to this..If I'm right this long term chart shows we are still experiencing the super cycle A wave The B wave (when it happens) will be the next bull market phase I guess....I don't want to think about the C wave.



Note...reference for the DOW S&P

NZX is in secular Bull cycle or was until recently ...(Having trouble collecting long term data for determination)

[dumbass]

nice summation hoop,

very much in agreement on your target and what your saying.

A FLAT CORRECTION

one note from elliot wave theory and i believe this will be a likely outcome.
currently in big wave A down , this has an three wave structure.(c wave under way at moment of an abc )
obviously been a deep swift movement but price can not just keeping on moving down exponentially.
the market needs to correct a time component as well , i reckon 3-4 years
so after this leg completes market will rally back up to the high 14000
the b wave could even set a new high.
then back down in a c wave to complete correction to bottom of A

i think this is more than likely , i dont buy into all this end of the world rubbish .

for the first time in a long time im feeling a tad bullish and will now start looking for the capitulation phase over the next few months.

i traded through the nasdaq tech bubble and learnt that the tech stocks did not lead the recoverey so will look not at the financials for any clues but the better performing sectors and i ironically feel its going to be a tech led rallywhich may finish this major wave A

so what are we going to look at ? that is the question and very much aware this is a trade up and jump out at the top of major wave B and then look to short again for the major C.
time wise this B wave could allow a time window of a year to 18 months which is plenty of time to make some coin.

[arco]

.

Just as a matter of interest I see Martin Weiss and Mike Larson are predicting Dow @ 7200

Quote today..........................

"The Dow is still not far from its all-time peaks, with a lot further to fall. Our forecast is unchanged: 7,200 on the Dow".

I'll have a look at chart and see what I throws up

arco

[dumbass]

the rally that occurred in the dollar index ( 70 - 80 ) looks corrective , 3 waves up.

im counting it as a fourth wave and so a fifth wave should be underway for a retest of 70

and probably lower.

nice candlestick reversal on weekly pattern (evening star) should be used as risk limit 80.40

38.2 fib level was tested and strongly rejected.

a word of caution though as price has bounced off 23.6 % level , this may suggest a short term rally to ? 77.25 resistance, before down leg continues.

so in summary , short term could see a strengthening dollar but long term picture suggests new lows.

hope this helps got shorter term charts if your interested.

[dumbass]

i concede everyone thinks i've been smoking crack, but it looks to me more and more like the dow has bottomed.

this is not a bottom that signifies a new bull market but a tradeable B wave which should be multi month rally.

[Hoop]

i concede everyone thinks i've been smoking crack, but it looks to me more and more like the dow has bottomed.

this is not a bottom that signifies a new bull market but a tradeable B wave which should be multi month rally.

Dumbass on your original post #36 you have the C wave bottom on your chart (S&P500) 1060 is that correct (a bit hard to see the chart).

It seems logical that this could be a grounding point to look at for the time being or a very important index number for us to look at, ..especially if these points breaks.

Interesting to note that the S&P 500 closed today at 1106 the present TA target is 1100.

There maybe a pause or up bounce at a watershed DOW's 10000 as it is not only a psychological number and an old TA target point, but MORE importantly to the trendies it is the 12 yrs uptrendline intersect so one would assume if SP500 target of Dumbass's1060 holds so will the DOW's 10000. If it doesn't hold..and it has a good chance it won't** ..The next selling wave maybe initiated by the trendies rather from the Fibs, and EWists.
Using the trendline theory the DOW10000 has to hold and be the bottom now at this point of time if investors want this bear market to end.
As investors have observed when uptrend lines are broken there is more pain and for a longer period. How this will affect the NZX ASX (if it happens) is unsure.

**now that it has broken the support level of 10600 if the index keeps downtrending the new TA target would be 10600 -(11800-10600) = 9400.

Thoughts anyone..

[dumbass]

hey hoop ,

i think when the momentum builds as it is , technical levels become a little academic.

it reminds me of the nasdaq melt down where technical level after level just got blown away.

sentiment is the overiding factor at the moment and today was the first real panic day.

One day the market will wake up and say enough is enough and leave a few technical clues to a reversal but where that is i dont think anyone can predict.

im just enjoying the ride and licking my lips as to the bargains to be had , but no hurry.
i suspect your the same.

[Hoop]

hey hoop ,

i think when the momentum builds as it is , technical levels become a little academic.

it reminds me of the nasdaq melt down where technical level after level just got blown away.

sentiment is the overiding factor at the moment and today was the first real panic day.

One day the market will wake up and say enough is enough and leave a few technical clues to a reversal but where that is i dont think anyone can predict.

im just enjoying the ride and licking my lips as to the bargains to be had , but no hurry.
i suspect your the same.

Technical levels are very important chart points.. you surprise me Dumbass after reading your postings...Emotion creeping in is it?

i suspect your the same.
Actually no I'm not:o
I've dipped my toes in the marketplace bought up some of my old shares I sold out of last November, for about half the price. These shares triggered buy signals at that time a few weeks ago. Sold one last week again for a loss as it turned sour on me.
I take the view that we are in Bear market (3) so the end is closer plus equities have a habit of turning upwards half way through a recession phase and I take the view that I will never pick the bottom..so settle for small entries from here on in when buy signals are triggered. Still got lots in cash though

[Hoop]

Dumbass on your original post #36 you have the C wave bottom on your chart (S&P500) 1060 is that correct (a bit hard to see the chart).

It seems logical that this could be a grounding point to look at for the time being or a very important index number for us to look at, ..especially if these points breaks.

Interesting to note that the S&P 500 closed today at 1106 the present TA target is 1100.

There maybe a pause or up bounce at a watershed DOW's 10000 as it is not only a psychological number and an old TA target point, but MORE importantly to the trendies it is the 12 yrs uptrendline intersect so one would assume if SP500 target of Dumbass's1060 holds so will the DOW's 10000. If it doesn't hold..and it has a good chance it won't** ..The next selling wave maybe initiated by the trendies rather from the Fibs, and EWists.
Using the trendline theory the DOW10000 has to hold and be the bottom now at this point of time if investors want this bear market to end.
As investors have observed when uptrend lines are broken there is more pain and for a longer period. How this will affect the NZX ASX (if it happens) is unsure.

**now that it has broken the support level of 10600 if the index keeps downtrending the new TA target would be 10600 -(11800-10600) = 9400.

Thoughts anyone..

Broke through 10000 support intra day to bounce off 9500 (old TA target**) and closed at 9995 sitting on its 12 yr trendline support

Will that trend line hold for now?
Is that 9500 intra day the point where the start of the next rally commences?
Or is this selling pressure too strong and blows away the TA targets and old resistence points, A=C and Fibs adding further capitulation...Nah!!
Hoop being an optimist/realist? (a rare breed at the moment) thinks the bottom (for now?) is close...there are too many impediments in the way of the fall through the 9000 zone at this point of time...maybe a slight chance in the future perhaps? better chance it is the bottom?


**I revaluated from 9500 to 9400 when the DOW broke the 10600

[dumbass]

Hi Hoop,
Still no real clear sign market has in anyway bottomed out.
sp500 1061 was a significant pivot point and just got blown through and more importantly closed below this level.
Market will need to close above 1061 and hold before any upside action.
Not even oversold on daily.
No candlestick suggestive of a bottom.
Id say with this kind of downward momentum it seems prudent to expect follow through action.

as i said prior, technical levels not too relevant , the big power players can move huge funds around at speed so this is a market that will not respect technicals per se.

on the positive VIX has just posted a record close.

so yes closer to the bottom than the top but if your a few days out with your bottom you may be on the wrong side of another thousand points.

why not wait for a nice big hammer, a cofirmed uptrend and a nice retracement repecting a low point?

dont catch the knife !