EUR.JPY

[miner]

quote:Originally posted by miner

Short looking for 155.75 on the daily,but 156.46 to get through first,see how we go.

Cheers
Miner

Well Peat it went through my 155.75,could have stayed in with a break even stop too,you where right about holding for a south move,should have gone with my first thought as that is often the right thought[B)].

Cheers
Miner

[miner]

Well long at 156.75,if you look at the 15min chart you will see the "U" pattern that I entered on,same with usd/jpy,eur/jpy through but now need usd/jpy to do the same on 15min.
Also thinking it got over sold on china news,so sanity comes back and may be an ok ride north,see if it does and if I can stay in.

Cheers
Miner

[peat]

well its decision time for the Eur Jpy
we have (coinciding) a 61.8% retracement of the fall from 163.59 to 161.90
and a 161% extension of the first rise from 161.90 to 162.57.

[peat]

so seems my level of pivot was right... i only managed to short it at 162.38 currently +70

[peat]

stopped for only 20.

[arco]

Yen slides to 4-1/2 year low vs dollar
Fri Jun 15, 2007 11:04 AM BST

By Toni Vorobyova

LONDON (Reuters) - The yen hit a 4-1/2 year low versus the dollar and a 15-year trough against sterling on Friday after the Bank of Japan left interest rates on hold and gave limited guidance on future tightening.

The dollar was broadly firmer as investors expected U.S. inflation data could boost the view the next move from the Federal Reserve on rates would be up rather than down.

The BOJ left rates at 0.5 percent and Governor Toshihiko Fukui said he had no preconceived idea about a future rate rise, adding that he wanted to be more convinced on the sustainability of domestic capital spending and consumption.

"Fukui was pretty neutral... The market wants to sell the yen and so the news seems to be interpreted in that direction... I think the bias in the yen is still towards weakness," said Steve Barrow, currency strategist at Bear Stearns.

He added that risks to his six-month dollar/yen forecast of 129 were to the upside, and forecast euro at 180 yen.

By 0935 GMT, the dollar was up 0.4 percent at 123.45 yen, its highest since December 2002. Technical strategists say from here, the path is fairly clear up to 125.70 yen.

The euro was up 0.5 percent at 164.33 yen, closing in on the record high above 164.60 set earlier in June.

The single currency was steady at $1.3312, having hit an 11-week low this week.

Both sterling and the Australian dollar hit 15-year highs versus the low-yielding yen.

Rising equity markets contributed to a risk-loving environment, encouraging carry trade investments funded by cheap borrowing in the yen. Continued low FX volatility also helped.

INFLATION, TICS

Rallying U.S. Treasury yields and recent hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve have wiped out expectations for a Fed interest rate cut this year. These expectations had weighed on the dollar for several months.

"As activity data seems to be reasonably constructive and inflationary pressures still the issue for the Fed, it doesn't seem there's any obvious reason for the Fed to (cut)," said Jeremy Stretch, market strategist at Rabobank.

"Certainly for this year ... the Fed is happy just to be able to maintain a steady policy stance."

The U.S. inflation data due at 1230 GMT is expected to show that the core consumer price index rose by a moderate 0.2 percent in May from April.

Also due are speeches by Fed officials including chairman Ben Bernanke, U.S. May industrial production figures, June consumer sentiment survey from the University of Michigan, first quarter current account data and April capital flows numbers.

http://investing.reuters.co.uk/news/...nvesting.aspx?
rpc=401&type=hotStocksNewsUS&storyID=2007-06-15T100439Z_01_
T360067_RTRUKOC_0_US-MARKETS-FOREX.xml

[bogus1]

hi arco going back to failed patterns, this is a good example of a failed bearish crab, the harmonic numbers tested and bounced.do you ever use this failure as a bullish confirmation, which would have worked nicely.

[arco]

Hello b

I had that harmonic on my chart but I classed it
as a completed shape on 16th April-3rd May, (it failed
to follow through twice).Based on a pivot break there was no
entry taken.

IMO extending the legs further than that would create a
distortion which I would not normally trade off.

rgds - arco

[peat]

I guess this perspective is repeating itself on a few pairs but this one has turned back from the 78.6 level



prpbably would need a stop above 166 so from current levels thats 120 pips. as the 161% ext of AB is at that level and and so is the AB=CD level.

[dumbass]

just scanning through the charts , this is in prz , divergence on q stick , bearish engulfing and peat confirmation