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  1. #21
    Member
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    Feb 2007
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    Sydney, Australia.
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    Here in Sydney house repossession are at an all time high. It is a good time to be a solicitor in Sydney. Although that is the case there are 30,000 people needing new houses here. There is no space in the city to build new houses. Everyone wants to live close to city to avoid traffic etc. Eastern suburbs are likely to hold their house prices.

    Western suburbs in Sydney are getting hit at a higher rate of repossession. Not only people have to deal with higher interest rates, they have to put up with high cost to get to city to work etc.

    So I think with housing down turn, outer suburbs will get affected most.
    Last edited by shane_m; 11-03-2008 at 11:10 AM.

  2. #22
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    May 2002
    Location
    Wainui, New Zealand.
    Posts
    923

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    "no offense, but for 710k (in northshore) you can buy a house in ellerslie close to city without needing to cross the bridge to get in and out of the city."

    What an amazing comparison.......you could also buy 2 > 3 houses for that money in Kimbolton and not even come any where near Auckland!

  3. #23
    Member
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    Jan 2008
    Location
    North Shore
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    111

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    710k in forrest hill is pushing it imo, you could probably get much the same house in mairangi / murrays / rothesay bay with a decent sea view.. have to say the deck kitchen and bathroom look very nice though..

    good luck with selling your house

  4. #24
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    May 2002
    Location
    Wainui, New Zealand.
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    923

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    remy.....B4 you make comment you need to know your facts......

    I am a little up to play with Forrest Hill values. B4 I did this project I sold previous property in Forrest Hill which was the highest price ever at that time in F/hill. And the house in front of this house, which I also built, with veiws over the gulf, Rangitoto and Lake Pupuke set yet another benchmark 3 years ago, selling for $760k
    A one house site next door sold 6 months ago for $580k. And 2 houses of very similar design less the 100m away which were built just B4 mine have QV's (Sept 05) of $920k & $780K.
    Forrest Hill is just like any other suburb, just because the average is say $500 > $600 does not mean that is the value of all properties, you will find crap & you will find gooduns!

  5. #25
    Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2000
    Location
    Waitakere
    Posts
    163

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    To buy or sell - that is the question.
    Median price in Aus up 12% for yr to 473,000 from 450k in last
    quarter.
    Here in Henderson, Ak there seems to be heaps of building activity,
    double tracking proceeding, new town at Waimauku almost finished,
    BUT interest rates rising, petrol high, dairy products and other
    staples more expensive.
    Could everything just stop overnight if crunch hits, could
    things like double track overcome high petrol costs from outer
    suburbs?
    Takes me 15 min with no traffic to get from Henderson town to
    Sky City via motorway, while this area is considered an outer suburb
    it may be close enough to city to still be attractive to buyers,
    esp. with improved rail network.
    To buy or sell is a hard one, as long as employment stays good
    there may be enough people waiting for chance to get their own
    home, that it could put a floor under current prices.
    But look at the sharemarket, could that be an indicator of future events
    in the economy and property prices ie. no support?

  6. #26
    Member
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    May 2005
    Location
    , , New Zealand.
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    318

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    My guess:

    Brisbane/Gold Coast, Perth, and smaller coastal communities within striking distance of the Oz commodity largesse will continue to do well, but with decreasing capital gain returns.

    Outside of dairy properties and residential/commercial property adjacent to growing oil/gas industry in NZ I think the news for the next 5+ years is negative.

    My suburb has gone from a near nationwide low in average days on market to only 2 sales this entire summer......not good for a beachside suburb.......has completely ground to a halt....lisings average 3-ish months now, most pulled from market or flip to another agency.

    things seemed to slip from seller to buyer's market about September/October

    Owners have yet to meet the new market here.

    I'm meeting with a couple of agents to consider listing my commercial properties as the commercial market is still quite frothy for now.

  7. #27
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2005
    Location
    , , New Zealand.
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    318

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    just met with some commercial RE agents.....one in particular impressed me with strong market data, enthusiasm, and professionalism.

    the yield/cap rate numbers he was talking for my properties was high 6, low 7% range....I'm stunned actually...considering current mortgage % rates and market/economic direction.

    He may be blowing smoke up my rear, but he was making the right noises thus far.

    No need to sell, but I'm thinking freehold commercial property will be cheaper for some time during the next 5-ish years....so maybe best to put the money to work elsewhere.

    But the more RE softens in the next few years the more likely I am to listen to my wife's desire to upgrade to a bigger house for our growing clan....will probably start having a closer look at residential property in a year or so when the volume of mortgage stress and mortgagee sales increases a good bit further.

  8. #28
    Advanced Member trackers's Avatar
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    Nov 2004
    Location
    Christchurch, , New Zealand.
    Posts
    2,227

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    Have a read of lead BNZ economist Tony Alexander's current report on the state of economy (particularly housing):

    http://www.bnz.co.nz/About_Us/1,1184...HPUL4Economics

    He suggests many interesting things such as:

    "Come Spring the buyers will emerge assisted by interest rates declining, tax cuts, high job security continuing and wage rises.

    This return of buyers may sound quite early in the downward cycle. But the difference this time around is the continuing tight labour market which is leaving the queue of buyers in place."

    Also,

    "last week we noted that for the first time since data collection started in 1945 Americans now
    owe more on their houses than they own. The debt to equity ratio is therefore over 50%. We have nothing
    like that in New Zealand. As at September last year mortgage debt stood at about $151bn while the housing
    stock was valued at about $622b. The debt to equity ratio for us is around 24%. In the United States dwelling"
    Last edited by trackers; 20-03-2008 at 08:07 AM.

  9. #29
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    May 2000
    Location
    New Zealand.
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    1,221

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    Quote Originally Posted by lakedaemonian View Post
    ....will probably start having a closer look at residential property in a year or so when the volume of mortgage stress and mortgagee sales increases a good bit further.
    If it is like the previous dip in the late 90's, there will be a good 3year window to snap up some bargains when the market goes nowhere and those who have to sell, sell...
    Death will be reality, Life is just an illusion.

  10. #30
    Member
    Join Date
    Feb 2005
    Location
    , , Australia.
    Posts
    176

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    I'm holding property in QLD. Thought of selling one house and cash in a nice profit but have decided to continue holding it & definitely scope for me to crank up the rent.

    I'm investigating turning one of my residential rentals into commercial and doubling the rent to what I'm getting currently. May even be able to sell signage space as well because of the location its in.

    Sitting on cash as well, hoping property prices fall to yields that make sense to buy at.

    I bought properties back in 2002-2004 and mainly been in shares since. Keen to pick up more property and starting to look around. Even though I've made some good coin out of shares, I've done much better in property.

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