When to re-enter the market?

[Phaedrus]

I'm not clear why you are apologising, Belg, or indeed what point you are making. You'll have to spell it out for me.

At a practical level, we are faced with the simple problem of when to re-enter the market. If you don't think much of my suggested approach, that's OK - though I would be interested to know exactly what it is that you don't like about it. How, then, will you decide when to re-enter the market?

I would be interested in your thoughts too, Mick. What do you see as being wrong with my system as proposed here? How do you propose timing your market re-entry?

[winner69]

One thing about Phaedrus's sysyem (for want of a better description) is that if he was holding BSC.N I'm certain he would have been out early last year at about $150 ..... just look at the chart http://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=B...off&z=m&q=l&c=

No compromise or emotional attachment on P's part .... he would have been out of Bear Strerns ...... and the rationale approach is what P is highlighting on this thread

PS - must learn how to post charts one day

[Mick100]

I would be interested in your thoughts too, Mick. What do you see as being wrong with my system as proposed here? How do you propose timing your market re-entry?

Nothing wrong with your system phaedrus

I never got out of the market - I raised some cash in dec-jan as a precaution as i'm leveraged. Have since reinvested over the past 6 weeks

Phaedrus - you make your bread and butter by timing the market whereas I make my bread and butter by buying undervalued shares - and there's plenty of them around at the moment - just wish I had more money

[warthog]

Hi, slighly off topic: Bear-Stearns have just imploded in the states:

Top value 17 Jan '07: US$169.73 per share
One year ago around US$150
Friday morning: US$57
Friday evening : US$30
Sunday night: company will be bought up by JPMorgan (thanks Footsy) in a share swap for US$2 (yes TWO) per share.
All regulatory approvals have been given already, the only thing required is shareholder approval!
Will they get it??

Here's where to go for financial advice when it comes to your retirement ...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gUkbdjetlY8

[Lizard]

Hi Phaedrus,

Interesting April Fools Day move by the NZX50 today...freebie charts not totally clear, but looks as though a few of your indicators might be signalling a possible change in sentiment? Time for MacDunk to start buying?

(Bearing in mind the potential risk at this point and need for careful monitoring/tight stops etc as per your first post on this thread.)

[AMR]

Hi Phaedrus,

Interesting April Fools Day move by the NZX50 today...freebie charts not totally clear, but looks as though a few of your indicators might be signalling a possible change in sentiment? Time for MacDunk to start buying?

(Bearing in mind the potential risk at this point and need for careful monitoring/tight stops etc as per your first post on this thread.)

I would agree with that. Some of the price behaviour lately seems pretty bullish. I was watching the HSI when the news of UBS writedown came out. It fell 400 points to quick time only to rally and recover 600 points.

That would signify pretty strong support does it not Phadreus?

[duncan macgregor]

What has to be remembered is its that time of year to expect false signals. End of one financial year, start of another, with all the tooing and frooing that that creates. The American economy is in deep trouble, about to get worse, creating uncertainty in our markets. I am quite happy sitting in the sidelines getting my 8.5%, plus i expect another 8.5% in exchange rates in 2008. I would rather miss out on a few bob taking the risk at the moment than try and get out later in the year, when the markets all tank. Macdunk

[Placebo]

What? They're gonna tank worse than now??

You have some info to share with us MacDunk? Do tell...

[Dr_Who]

Some stability in the US market? If they can sort out the finance sector and start to bring some confidence back into the US market, the low interest rate and low exchange rate will hopefully push the economy back up again.

[Footsie]

to my mind... this is still a classic bear market snap back rally that sucks everyone in.....


We need to move back above the 52 week EMA before I am convinced