QUESTIONS FOR Mc DUNK

[duncan macgregor]

SHREWDY, The time to buy oil is when the world economy revs up next time. I would think that will be a major reshuffle of the world leading economies before that happens. I am quite content to sit it out until it all comes right. I hope it taught you to understand that the market is not ruled by common sense, but ruled by greed and fear. The fundamental hold forever and a day types have all taken a huge hiding.
The American credit way of life that we adopt will self destruct, if not this time then next time fear grips the market. The most important rule in investing is [IF IN DOUBT GET OUT]. I would think the worst has still to come, this is only the beginning of of a prolonged depressed period with people that have money to scared to buy shares.
I dont mind having a little dabble in the market just for fun, like buying a lotto ticket or a few shares in thrill and drill, but i wont be in with any intent for at least another year. Macdunk

[duncan macgregor]

mackdunk,
question time---->

why did you get CUE?
did you get it so you would always have it over me with a lower entry price...?
im only down one third...its just a bad stock pick...
I could not be happier....
but lower prices coming through is a tiny concern...esp if they keep falling...
its gone 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 55... whats next?
TA would not be buying?
so when do you think is a good time to go long on oil mackdunk?

.^sc

SHREWDY, I bought CUE simply because i thought it had a chance of coming good, and secondly so that you couldnt come back later saying i told you so. At the moment i am more interested in catching a bigger fish than the one i got last time. TA would see you right out the market like i have been. I only play the game when the odds are in my favour. The writing is on the wall for large sections in the market to downtrend so who cares about picking the bottom?.
Only fools try that, let the market pick its own bottom, that way you might only miss a few cents with money at 7 or 8% sitting safely in the bank. Oil wont uptrend until the market gets back on track, then we will get peak oilers raving on all over again. Money at the moment Shrewdy is a very risky thing to hold if you consider what it actually is. Its a little bit of paper with a promise to pay stampted on it.
Much better having material assets that are still worth something if the whole lot turns to custard. The idea when investing is to look for and understand the sign posts leading up to tomorrows market and beyond. Macdunk

[Nitaa]

Macca. Have you held property this year? Last it it showed signs of the downward trend. IMO this was the first time for a long time to exit the property market.

As far as people sticking their neck out or not then surely it is up to the individual. As you have said in the past when i asked you how much money you invested you basically said, "mind your own business". Therefore i am in the view that other posters have no need to disclose who their real identity is or how much they invested into what where when etc. Therefore i think you should respect other posters decision even if you dont agree with them.

On a seperate note i was interested to hear peoples opinions especially stock brokers and the likes to share their views on the current crisis. I had asked the comment about the impact on hedge funds, cfd's etc. The more i see it or understand it the more i think that these tools for investing have led to a greater impact on the financial meltown. Hedge funds and traders have exagerated the the rise in oil and other commodities and is looking to have the same impact dowards. The obvious thing to happen is the longer or more decline in oil prices the bigger the impact in a few years time. The world is running a serious risk of chaos if this isnt addressed asap.

However i am an optimist and since the world is a perfect it has a way of finding itself.

[Crypto Crude]

nita-
As far as people sticking their neck out or not then surely it is up to the individual. As you have said in the past when i asked you how much money you invested you basically said, "mind your own business". Therefore i am in the view that other posters have no need to disclose who their real identity is or how much they invested into what where when etc. Therefore i think you should respect other posters decision even if you dont agree with them.

nita,
there is a difference between posters saying when and what price they are buying and exiting as so forth compared to how much money they have...
Its rude to ask how rich people are, or how much they get paid... but if they want to disclose that then thats up to them...
Ive openly said what I have and the fact that I came up from nothing 5 years ago means that I dont really mind saying what I have...
mackdunk and I are stubborn individuals...
He thinks that hes out done me but its totally the opposite...
ive outperformed him every year for 5 years I bet...gotta give him one back eah...
If CUE gets back to 18 cents or so then I'll outperform him again this year...
2 bagger rpm...
money made on AKK, WHN, LMPO, MEO...big positions on the last two...
breakeven on LMP...
lost 500 on FAR... a few more bucks on CTP, and CTPOA...
and CUE, and
cant think of any other trades...
its been a magical year even with my bold move on CUE...
In two days mackdunk will lose our stock picking competition after he made a few crucial mistakes which I will explain later (which cost him the competition)......
mackdunk got the most important thing right this year...
he is still trailing me in the overall scheme of things...ie 5yrs...
give it up to me mackdunk... instead of this blah blah market this market that...
you lucky you would have lost 90% of the portfolio had you held your resource stocks...
good to see oilers like NZO outperform...
resource stocks come and go..good oilers stick around...
hehehe... your mate keeping you honest...

.^sc

[duncan macgregor]

SHREWDY, Macdunk might be a silly old bugger but he was never stupid enough to place 60% of his worth on an illiquid share and watch it drop over 30%. I told you before to get out the market, never fall in love with a company, and above all have a stop loss. The fishing up here is great beats playing silly buggers in a downtrending market. You got to concede that i picked the market dead right down to the last few weeks well in advance of the event. I dont expect to be a world champion at anything quite content to beat the average mug at most things.
You will be a much wiser person for doing combat with me this year, hope you learned a few tricks in the process. Remember if the world financial system collapses the only thing worth having is material assets. Have you learned to walk like a champion like i showed you or was i just wasting my time ?. Your old mate Macdunk trying to teach you something as usual.

[Crypto Crude]

mackdunk...
Im in love with no company... I will sell a stock any day of the week if it changes...
Sold MEO (big time), CUE before, FAR around 12c when it turned, TEX, most importantly sold NWE when I was in love with it at that time with 80% wealth in it.. it had forward projected earnings multiples of its market cap......(always hard to sell those ones)...
Held onto CUE, it had time delays...nothing changed significantly in the company just the timing of its asset deliverly... its the same story as it was last month...I only sell on material changes....
you see the difference
... thought you would have understood that my now...

stop losses are for whimps, and im not selling nothing that I spot and move on when nothing material changes.. oil prices falling is changing this abit..... inground assets worth 20 times the market cap... real value... blah blah blah... just walked into it at the wrong time...
I was a man of stocks, not a man of market risk... this will have to change...
you are part 'man of stocks', mostly a man of market risk...

my move on CUE was rather savvy... had I held pretty much any other oil stock, I would have lost more...

I have nothing to concede to you...

.^sc

[duncan macgregor]

mackdunk...
Im in love with no company... I will sell a stock any day of the week if it changes...
Sold MEO (big time), CUE before, FAR around 12c when it turned, TEX, most importantly sold NWE when I was in love with it at that time with 80% wealth in it.. it had forward projected earnings multiples of its market cap......(always hard to sell those ones)...
Held onto CUE, it had time delays...nothing changed significantly in the company just the timing of its asset deliverly... its the same story as it was last month...I only sell on material changes....
you see the difference
... thought you would have understood that my now...

stop losses are for whimps, and im not selling nothing that I spot and move on when nothing material changes.. oil prices falling is changing this abit..... inground assets worth 20 times the market cap... real value... blah blah blah... just walked into it at the wrong time...
I was a man of stocks, not a man of market risk... this will have to change...
you are part 'man of stocks', mostly a man of market risk...

my move on CUE was rather savvy... had I held pretty much any other oil stock, I would have lost more...

I have nothing to concede to you...

.^sc

Remind me to throw you another bit of bait some time. Macdunk

[Crypto Crude]

No bait required mackdunk...
I always throw my fish back out to sea
...
catch and release mate...

had I bought a house when you told me too I would be far worse off now...
I would have been effectly bankrupted by your advice, and Joe kings.....
I would have lost tens of thousands of dollars by being locked into higher Fixed term interest rates......(for the sake of secured manageable payments)... and I would have lost tens of thousands of dollars on falling property prices...

.^sc

[Nitaa]

Speaking of Joe it seems a cash of reality hitting him.. Even Warren Buffet only averaged 25% gain each year. However i am sure Joe will be much wiser and i wont be surprised if he sold all his shares to catch to US wave on the currency

[minimoke]

had I bought a house when you told me too I would be far worse off now...
I would have been effectly bankrupted by your advice, and Joe kings.....
I would have lost tens of thousands of dollars by being locked into higher Fixed term interest rates......(for the sake of secured manageable payments)... and I would have lost tens of thousands of dollars on falling property prices...

Actually SC fixed interest rates around the beginning of 07 were about 8% with floating around 9.75% They are now around 8.2% fixed and 9.45% floating. So if you buy now you will still be paying more in interest than a couple of years ago. You need to go back to 2003 /04 to get rates closer to the 6% mark.

You also wouldn’t have lost a bean on your property. You only loose if you had to sell. You weren’t in a position back in 07 to be highly gearing or leveraging your capital so it’s unlikely you would have gotten into the rental property market at that time – so you wouldn’t be under pressure now to sell.

If you had bought back in early 07 on a fixed rate you could have sat back unconcerned while interest rates increased another 1.5% before they began dropping. This would have saved you around $4,000 in cash or $6,000 in gross earnings. This is getting close to what your perceived and theoretical loss might have been over that period – remembering of course that property prices continued to grow into late 07, early 08 before values started to drop away.

If you’d taken out a 2 year fixed (as I do) you would be coming off your fixed early in 09 into a dropping interest rate period and you could play the interest game – either re-fixing or staying with the variable rates for a while (at about 1.25% higher than fixed) until they hit a level you were comfortable with.