QUESTIONS FOR Mc DUNK

[Crypto Crude]

minimoke-Actually SC fixed interest rates around the beginning of 07 were about 8% with floating around 9.75% They are now around 8.2% fixed and 9.45% floating. So if you buy now you will still be paying more in interest than a couple of years ago. You need to go back to 2003 /04 to get rates closer to the 6% mark.

You also wouldn’t have lost a bean on your property. You only loose if you had to sell. You weren’t in a position back in 07 to be highly gearing or leveraging your capital so it’s unlikely you would have gotten into the rental property market at that time – so you wouldn’t be under pressure now to sell.

Last week ise down at kiwi bank and im sure that I saw fixed rates below 8%... there was one other bank below 8%...
Its also not what the rates are now, what they will be next year with continuing cuts throughout the year...
bold and underlined---> great then, I have not lost a cent on CUE huh...

.^sc

[minimoke]

Last week ise down at kiwi bank and im sure that I saw fixed rates below 8%... there was one other bank below 8%...
Its also not what the rates are now, what they will be next year with continuing cuts throughout the year...
bold and underlined---> great then, I have not lost a cent on CUE huh...

.^sc

Yup – around 7.7% at Jims Bank.

If you follow the Belg Stock Investment technique you sure haven’t lost anything on CUE. Indeed following this technique you should be locking in your profits by buying more. The trick being the greater the fall, the more you buy. Well proven with FTX and Snoopy is doing well on RBD. This investment technique isn’t so great with property though – bits of land just don’t have the liquidity that shares do. Unless you live by the sea and believe in Global Warming

[Crypto Crude]

minimoke-Yup – around 7.7% at Jims Bank.

If you follow the Belg Stock Investment technique you sure haven’t lost anything on CUE. Indeed following this technique you should be locking in your profits by buying more. The trick being the greater the fall, the more you buy. Well proven with FTX and Snoopy is doing well on RBD. This investment technique isn’t so great with property though – bits of land just don’t have the liquidity that shares do. Unless you live by the sea and believe in Global Warming

minimoke,
I made such a bold move on CUE early on, and that Maari production was suppost to kick in offsetting a falling market... that never happened with delays... CUE has proven inground resource worth about 20 times the market value of the company, So I made a bold move with 60% all in...
Im afraid there is no more buying from me to come.....

me old man picked up a swagga of CUE yesterday at 13cents....
hey mackdunk, whats up... you are now being double teamed... hehehehe

.^sc

[Serpie]

hey mackdunk, whats up... you are now being double teamed... hehehehe

.^sc

Make that tripled teamed MacDunk!

You got the stockmarket 100%. Kudos to you for that. But your (and my own) advice to young Shrewdy on the property side of things was wrong.

I also said, around 12 months ago I think, to get into the property market as soon as you could, but that would've been a mistake in hindsight. I''m trying to sell properties at the moment and my big concern is getting them on the market quickly enough to avoid further falls. It's scary out there.
And locking in interests rates at the moment is also a no-no IMO. Stay liquid and stay flexible.

Speaking with reall estate agents and some friends there's seems to have been a major shift in the banks risk appetite, with the old 20% deposit rule being dusted off and re-applied. It's good to see that the sub-prime lessons have been learnt and applied.

[Nitaa]

Make that quad teamed mcdunked. Even only for a supporting role

[GTM 3442]

Just a question - why money in the bank ? Why not bonds ? OK there's brokerage, but as interest rates decline, bonds have to look good - decent interest rate, locked in at some % above bank rates for a decent length of time.

[STRAT]

Make that quad teamed mcdunked. Even only for a supporting role

Hell has frozen over and a 300lb Dermantsi Pied Porker just flew past my window

[Crypto Crude]

serpie-
Make that tripled teamed MacDunk!

You got the stockmarket 100%. Kudos to you for that. But your (and my own) advice to young Shrewdy on the property side of things was wrong.

I also said, around 12 months ago I think, to get into the property market as soon as you could, but that would've been a mistake in hindsight. I''m trying to sell properties at the moment and my big concern is getting them on the market quickly enough to avoid further falls. It's scary out there.
And locking in interests rates at the moment is also a no-no IMO. Stay liquid and stay flexible.

Speaking with reall estate agents and some friends there's seems to have been a major shift in the banks risk appetite, with the old 20% deposit rule being dusted off and re-applied. It's good to see that the sub-prime lessons have been learnt and applied.

thanks serpie,
Ive been waiting for mackdunk to say something about his advice he gave me awhile back...Ive hit him up a couple of times and he went around my questions... I will leave it up to him...
I have plenty of time to wait for a response...
I can wait another 1.5% OCR cut, I can wait another year plus of house prices falling, it will only get worse....
We had hundreds of firey debates on that thread with Joeking also... Right now id be negative geared in housing by about 50k I reckon with his path of buying a house, and fixed interest rates... im 20k in shares with my path...
thats a 70k difference...
When I buy my first house in 2009, most likely 2010 id hope mackdunk would repay the favour and fly down to chch, and with his talents help me buy a great house... hehehehe...
He is talented, but as I said many times, blinded by the fact that house prices have only done him well over the long term... This sort of blinding has partially lead to my demise on my portfolio which has halved in value at my peak during 2007 when it hit 42k and now im only 20k ish give or take market worth... but I did spend 5k to go to China...
yeah harrgghhh... Gotta love this mate...

serpie-->what should I do next year,
buy more shares, or start tucking it away for that house?...
remember housing falls, sharemarket falls, I remain indifferent between the two....

.^sc

[duncan macgregor]

SHREWDY, First of all congrats for pipping me at the post in our competition. You attitude is still wrong about future investments, and what you should have learned from this latest on going crash. Remember what i told you Shrewdy down trend leading up to the olympics leading up to a crash. After that prediction coming right you might perhaps take notice of my next one. The crash will get much worse than you might think right now, you cant throw good money after bad to prop up consumption in ailing sectors.
The American car industry has had it leaving three million car industry related workers on the scrap heap. Money my friend might be worth nothing at all, the house that you live in with a fixed mortgage interest rate you might pay off with a weeks wages working at Macdonalds.
In bad times you must have an understandable level of debt insured against payments that you cant afford. Sometimes as is the case at the moment it goes the wrong way which has the dont know people jumping up and down saying i told you so.
You played the game like SNOOPY. You fell in love with an illiquid company hard to get out of without a stop loss. When it downtrended you started bleating about how right you were, and how wrong the market was. The market is irrational, which is good for the people that dont fall in love with companies, and can stand back and look at it in a cold calculating way.
Houses will never be built cheaper than they are today. What happens is the building game stops the demand increases and house values increase at a much faster rate than ever. I have always said buy a house cheaper than construction cost at any stage in the cycle and you are on to a winner. Macdunk

[Serpie]

serpie-->what should I do next year,
buy more shares, or start tucking it away for that house?... .^sc

I was going to ask you!

As far as I'm concerned it's all about building arks at the moment.

I'm staying away from the sharemarket at the moment (mostly) because I'm putting all of my money into trying to tart up and sell properties. Now that is an expensive exercise! And we're getting rid of everything because I dont want to be carrying a lot of debt through next year. So everything goes, we repay debt, and find a nice house to hide in.
That's Ark No 1.

I gave my guys a "state of the nation" speech last week. We're booked to about 110% capacity from now until April, and we've got a couple of big jobs that we have verbal confirmation for that will take us to about 130% capacity. So I've told them that Christmas is not cancelled, but it's been ringfenced, and they can take their holidays in April if they have any. We're going to go flat out until April and get as much behind us as we can.
That's Ark No 2.

The main reason is that, as contractors, we see projects about 6-12 months after the consultants see them. And speaking with the consultants, they are saying that after April there is nothing. There's plenty of things that people want to do, but the finance isn't there. Most of the stuff that we're looking at now is either central or regional government spending. Not a lot of private stuff.
There are others who say that there is work coming up after that time, but I'm getting mixed messages, so I'm building arks.

I've been in business for 13 years, and Christmas is very expensive for businesses. I expect the failure rate of companies, both in NZ and the rest of the world, to be pretty significant this Christmas. And that's going to impact everything. It will take a long time to wash through the sharemarket and the housing market, and it will create opportunities for those with resources.

So my advice would be to buy nothing, and collect as much loose change as you can, and sit on it. There's a storm coming, and although it may not be of biblical proportions, and it may only clip you on the way past, an ark may be a handy thing to have lying in the back garden.

I suppose I could've summarised all of that by saying "hope for the best but prepare for the worst"