SANford Chart

[kura]

What they don't say is: "Take out profit on asset sales and FOREX hedging, and we had a really awful year" suppose we just have to wait to see full extent on 25 November.

[JAMP]

The market has responded positively to the announcements of late in the short-term.

I will be watching with interest how things stack up following the profit announcement post-market closure on the 24th. Will the recent share-price gains hold or will we see the stock sold off again?

Regards JAMP
NZX: MCH MFT RBD SAN SKX SPN VTX WRI
Unlisted: BRK

[Phaedrus]

This chart update provides a picture-perfect textbook illustration of Support, when broken, becoming Resistance. The reversals that you see here are accurate right to the cent, even though they have been spread over 4 years. The market has a long memory.
Note that the big rise on Friday carried SAN above the crucial $4.70 resistance level.

[duncan macgregor]

Jamp, Only my opinion might be wrong but i know a little bit about the industry. In the short term profit will increase because of the scampi fishery recently purchased hense the rise in share price. The long term it is a different story. Over fishing reduced catches long term i think the outlook is not to good. The scampi fishery at the moment is a money makeing machine the other part is on decline. macdunk

[Mick100]

I agree Macdunk
I'v worked in the fishing industry for a few years and i can assure people that this industry is in serious decline - To put it simply, there's not enough fish out there to catch.

Rising fuel prices is just another nail in the coffin of the fishing industry.


Mick

[JAMP]

It must be the contrarian within I guess. There are a few storm clouds brewing, but somehow I don't believe that we have all the necessary components for a "perfect storm".

Supply issues are not going to go away, so there is no point in the industry burying their head in the recently dredged sand and thinking they will. I guess that leaves the other side of the equation, demand. Do we see a shift to the next best product (essentially leaving S&D curve unchanged), or do we see a new supply curve with equilibrium moving up the demand curve?

Regards JAMP
NZX: MCH MFT RBD SAN SKX SPN VTX WRI
Unlisted: BRK

[winner69]

Must be another thread somewhere for SAN but this is the only one when searching

However announced result late afternoon, headlines -

Group profit declined from $26.1m last year to $19.7m this year; however, the
profit decline would have been substantially greater had we not earned a
capital gain of $7.6m from the sale of our investment in Argentina and a
$2.2m gain on the reversal of our 2005 write down of our Canadian investment
in Fishery Products International Limited (FPI). The underlying result from
the main business activities was impacted by the continuing high New Zealand
dollar exchange rate and rising fuel prices.

Doesn't look too bad until you see the impact of the capital gains - which sort of says that the profit this year would have only been $9M odd without y=them

Nearly $400M of sales and stuff all profit must be frustrating for all .... all that hard work in smelly working conditions (at least for the workers) for not much profit but at least shareholders get 13 cents a share .... just as well as the capital gains eh

Highlights the fragility of NZ exporters and the impact of the high dollar and their inability to compete with the rest of the world when it is high .... and the ever increasing cost of fuel is a double whammy

Consensus might be that both could improve but another year of struggling for SAN if the NZD doesn't fall and their is some fuel cost relief .... at least management seems reasonably comfortable

Amazed that the SAN shareprice has stayed up as high as it has over the years .... still about where it was 3 years ago and not that many exporters can say that

[Deev8]

... he said he was going to start hedging when the dollar hit 0.60 earlier in the year, but don't think it was there long enough to get any hedging in.

Unfortunately the dollar hasn't been anywhere near US 60c this year, the low point was more than US 66c.

[Phaedrus]

A good LT industry to be in (but) I'd better take Phaedrus's general advice and wait for the downtrend to turn, first, before buying

I'll bet you're glad you hung fire there, Tobo. 6 months later and the downtrend still hasn't ended! There is some news, though..... Yesterday SAN released their 6 month report - profits are down by 79.4%. This must have come as a surprise to some holders because the shareprice has dropped another 19 cents since then. SAN's weakness is no news for TA users, though. For them, this is simply the continuation of a pre-existing confirmed downtrend that has been running for over a year, so far.

In spite of SAN being a relatively lightly traded stock, this chart provides some nice clear illustrations of simple, kindergarten level TA in action. Note the (unsustainably) steep uptrend. See how the break of the confirmed trendline gave a very timely Sell signal, locking in profits. This signal confirmed the OBV trendline break Sell signal that had preceded it by several weeks. The OBV is supposed to be a "leading" indicator, firing ahead of price action and that is certainly what happened here.
The magenta trendline marking the subsequent downtrend was broken in early 2009, but see how this "buy" signal had no volume confirmation. The OBV was not rising. Those who understand the importance of volume would have ignored this signal.
Look now at the uptrend of early 2009 as marked by the light green trendline. See how this uptrend continued to lack the confirmation of a rising OBV - In fact, the OBV was falling - this uptrend had no future. It ended after a few short months, beginning the current downtrend which has run for over a year, so far.
Note the surgical precision with which the peaks of this downtrend fall on the trendline. Neat eh? I never cease to marvel at just how linear trends can be.



Lessons :-
(1) Don't buy downtrending stocks.
(2) Don't act on any single unconfirmed signal.
(3) By the time the company reports the bad news that "explains" the fall, it's too late.
(4) Don't buy downtrending stocks!

[macduffy]

Thanks, Phaedrus..

Another fine tutorial!

SAN would be on a lot of watchlists I would think - it's on mine - and the recent weakness in the NZD might have tempted some buyers. A good example of the value in overlaying a bit of basic TA over fundamentals.