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Thread: SANford Chart

  1. #21
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    The fishing industry seems beseiged at the moment, a lack of skilled workers, a strong dollar, foreign competition for a diminishing resource. With such natural advantages NZ should have two or three world recognised brands listed on the NZX. Add to this the governments lack of traction in sorting out aquaculture regulations and the situattion is not good. What's needed is government guidance, Jim Anderton should stop setting up superboats and superbanks and set about taking away the barriers to creating a fertile environment for a sustainable fishing industry.

    As for SAN. This an important month for SAN technically during a time of real weakness in it's shareprice. At 3 year lows and still with considerable selling pressure. There seems to be some historical resistance @ approx 3.50 then I guess the NTA. After that well the reserve bank might have driven another company to the wall. One thing is certain when we get below 4$ SAN will become a takeover target for sure.
    http://www.kittydashwood.com - advice from a small black and white house cat, who favours a gap up on a red doji.

  2. #22
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    Been up every day since it hit that 400 ..... you been buying Jamp??
    When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognizing euphoria itself.

  3. #23
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    I have been thinking about buying Sanford shares for over 3 years but everything (and I mean everything) I read about the fishing industry from all around the world shows fish stocks of all spieces on the decline . Today I read that English fisherman had a quota of 800,000 tons of sandeels (sound tasty don't they) last year but could only catch 300,000. Are NZ's fish stocks in a similar state or are they sustainably managed? In the last 3 years Sanfords price has fallen (along with world fish stocks). Are Sandford shares really worth buying?
    \"The overweening conceit which the greater part of men have of their own abilities [and] their absurd presumption in their own good fortune.\" - <b>Adam Smith</b> - <i>The Wealth of Nations</i>

    The information you have is not the information you want.
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    The informaton you can obtain costs more than you want to pay.

  4. #24
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    It's quite difficult to tell, as this stock moves quite a bit on very little volume. However, the last week of action doesn't really inspire much confidence imo.




  5. #25
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    from what i gather from mates who work on sealord boats they cant catch the quota allowed for hoki this year anyway,and theres definately a major decline in the stocks out there

  6. #26
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    Here is most of the article from the BBC online.


    UK seabirds' breeding attempts in 2004 have been disastrous, the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds says, with industrial fishing largely to blame.
    In a report the RSPB says 2004 has been the most catastrophic breeding season on record for seabirds along UK coasts.

    It says industrial fishing to supply fish meal and oil is barely sustainable and imperils the whole marine food web.

    The RSPB says climate change is making matters worse, with some industrial fish species starving as the seas warm.

    Total failure

    Industrial fishing catches millions of tonnes of small fish which congregate in dense shoals - species like sandeels, sprats and anchovies - to turn into meal and oil, much of it to feed farmed fish.

    The fish caught are a key part of the marine food chain, but the RSPB says we know little about the effects of industrial fishing. But it is worried: "The UK has suffered serious seabird disasters this year already. In Shetland and Orkney, entire colonies of birds failed to produce any young because of severe food shortages.

    "On top of that, hundreds of seabirds have been washing ashore having perished at sea. Again, lack of food is thought to be one of the reasons."

    The report, Assessment Of The Sustainability Of Industrial Fisheries Producing Fish Meal And Fish Oil, was compiled for the RSPB by Poseidon Aquatic Resource Management Ltd and the University of Newcastle-upon-Tyne.

    It investigated the sustainability of two of the world's largest fisheries, the Peruvian anchovy industry and the North Sea sandeel fishery.

    It concluded that industrial fisheries globally are failing to meet crucial criteria for sustainability, with the sandeel fishery deficient on around 60% of the criteria tested.


    \"The overweening conceit which the greater part of men have of their own abilities [and] their absurd presumption in their own good fortune.\" - <b>Adam Smith</b> - <i>The Wealth of Nations</i>

    The information you have is not the information you want.
    The information you want is not the information you need.
    The information you need is not the information you can obtain.
    The informaton you can obtain costs more than you want to pay.

  7. #27
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    winner69, my funds have not yet been released from the Access Brokerage fiasco. Needless to say I feel like I have missed the boat on this one.

    Regards JAMP
    NZX: MCH MFT RBD SAN SKX SPN VTX WRI
    Unlisted: BRK

  8. #28
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    JAMP

    Missed the boat. You should feel like the guy who missed the Titanic!

    I cannot understand why anyone would contemplate investing in an industry that is doomed, unless the world accepts a near zero quota, for sufficient time period. Surely, until that happens you cannot get rich! Refer to above posts.

    If you are a trader, you may have brief successes. Refer to your TA!


  9. #29
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    Basically fish is sustainably managed in NZ, (apart from odd hickup ie Hoki) so in long term this would put SAN in a better position than its international rivals. Main concerns are:
    - current profitability (lack thereof) as take out FOREX gains and result is poor
    - lack of security of tenure over marine farm assets, while govt bumbles along with proposed rule changes.

  10. #30
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    Sanford shares are up 50 cents in 2 weeks and 17 cents today. Today there were two annoucements.

    1) The purchase of Suminovich.

    2) Investing in China.


    1) Sanford finalising purchase of fishing assets of Simunovich

    Sanford Limited is in the closing stages of arrangements to purchase most of
    the fishing assets of Auckland based fishing company Simunovich Fisheries
    Limited.

    These assets include fishing and scampi quota, vessels, equipment, workshop
    facilities and other operational assets. Operational personnel associated
    with these and other assets will be offered ongoing employment in similar
    positions within Sanford Limited but some senior positions will be lost.

    It is expected that this purchase will be completed and be effective from the
    new fishing year commencing on 1 October 2004 and that it will prove highly
    complementary to a broad range of Sanford's existing activities.

    These include inshore longline and trawl fishing in the northern area for
    species such as Snapper and Tarakihi which will further enhance the supply of
    product to the newly opened Auckland Fish Market.

    The hoki, orange roughy, and other deepwater quota species will be a used by
    our existing deepwater ice and freezer trawlers and freezer longliners.

    Simunovich's and Sanford's scampi operations will be integrated. From the 1
    October 2004 the management of this resource changes from Olympic style
    fishing (the disruptive race for fish with all the negative quality, market
    volatility and over capitalization issues) into individual transferable quota
    fishing where area quotas can be harvested in a much more efficient manner
    maximising quality and vessel usage and supplying the market in a more
    orderly fashion.

    2) Sanford invests in China

    Sanford Limited has concluded a 25% investment in a wholly foreign owned
    seafood processing company in China.

    The company Weihai Dong Won Foods Limited (WDWF), based in Weihai in the
    north eastern part of the Shandong province is majority owned by Dong Won
    Fisheries Co Limited of Korea but has other Korean shareholders as well. The
    Sanford investment is part of an increase in the capital of the company from
    US$5m to US$7.2m and coincides with an expansion of WDWF's already extensive
    processing facilities.

    This investment is part of Sanford's long term strategic goals of securing
    the full benefits through a limited seafood supply chain into high value
    worldwide seafood customers.

    Weihai Dong Won Foods Limited was established in 1998 to meet increased
    demand for new seafood products in Japan and elsewhere. The company sources
    various seafood raw material products from New Zealand and elsewhere as well
    as purchasing seafood locally in Shandong province. It processes that
    seafood into more highly valued finished products which is then exported to
    various countries around the world.

    Sanford's investment will allow it to participate actively in the growth and
    development of the business as well as enabling us to offer our customers
    more specialized processed seafood products in one of the most competitive
    economies in the world.

    Sanford's decision to proceed with this investment was further encouraged by
    New Zealand's recent recognition of China as a market economy and the
    resulting steps towards a New Zealand/China comprehensive free trade
    agreement.

    Sanford has previously contracted the plant to process products caught in
    other areas of the world and has always been impressed with its strong
    emphasis on quality and efficiency. We are excited by the opportunities that
    this equity investment offers us.

    Sanford and Dong Won operate the San Won Limited Coldstorage business in the
    port city of Timaru which has a sister city relationship with Weihai. Sanford
    also charters three Dong Won fishing vessels in New Zealand.

    Dong Won Fisheries Co Limited was established in 1970 and is listed on the
    Korean Stock Exchange. For further information see www.dongwonfish.co.kr

    Sanford is New Zealand's only publicly listed fishing compan
    \"The overweening conceit which the greater part of men have of their own abilities [and] their absurd presumption in their own good fortune.\" - <b>Adam Smith</b> - <i>The Wealth of Nations</i>

    The information you have is not the information you want.
    The information you want is not the information you need.
    The information you need is not the information you can obtain.
    The informaton you can obtain costs more than you want to pay.

  11. #31
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    Oracle, with the benefit of hindsight I can "categorically" state that industry rationalisation was always going to happen. This was signalled when they tried to merge with Sealords. To my mind there is more to come, and when it does the cream will rise to the top.

    The good news is that the BNZ should be in contact with me within the week to clarify (and release?) my call funds with Access Brokerage. Perhaps a fortnight or so too late to park them where I had intended, but at least they are homeward bound.

    Regards JAMP
    NZX: MCH MFT RBD SAN SKX SPN VTX WRI
    Unlisted: BRK

  12. #32
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    So, did the Sanford chart predict today's "breakout"?
    And if not what's the point in doing these pointless charts?

  13. #33
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    MVT
    When T.A. signals are propitious I react. I don't try to predict and I believe that it's one of the tenets of effective T.A. (just as F.A.'ers who don't understand T.A. are reactive.[])

  14. #34
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    quote:Originally posted by Major von Tempsky

    So, did the Sanford chart predict today's "breakout"?
    And if not what's the point in doing these pointless charts?
    MVT, I will attempt to answer,but only if you promise one thing: you try to be objective[].

    TA is a tool, exactly like FA, to aid in a decision making process. TA can not predict future prices - neither can FA. I use FA and TA to stack the odds in my favour when trying to make a profit.

    I mentioned on the 18/9/04 that SAN can move quite a lot on very little volume. There certain indicator signs, but nothing compelling to make me want to rush in. SAN is a stock I have no interest in.

    Anyway, tell me, did your statement of financial performance, el nino weather patterns and cash flows predict todays 'breakout'? [?]



  15. #35
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    MVT - Why have you gone all quiet[?] If you are going to make haughty comments, and someone takes the time to respond, I would have thought that even you would have the decency to reply.

    I obviously gave you more credibility than you deserve.

  16. #36
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    MAJOR VON TEMPSKY, You said [did the charts predict todays rise in the share price]. The charts will never predict a rise like this happening, but fundamental inside information will. We live in a crooked world, the charts showed that something untoward was happening,and it did. FA at a distance would never spot it, unless you were close to the operation but TA did. Two announcements with the market reaction in advance,or to put it bluntly insider trading. Perhaps MAJOR you might see past the tea leaves off chartists. The herd starts to gallop before most of us hear the shot. When it comes down to straight out inside trading watch the charts. MACDUNK
    DISCL 60pcFA 40pcTa is what i do.

  17. #37
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    I have no interest in SAN so didn't notice any price rise ahead of the announcements. So, MacDunk and others, if you did notice something fishy (sorry, pun not intended) why haven't you raised the matter with NZX? A simple phone call or email will at least prompt some sort of response. I've done this a couple of times over things that bothered or puzzled me and each time I've received a prompt and courteous reply. It all helps to keep them on their toes, IMO.

  18. #38
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    MVT,

    TA thinking disguised as FA : If a company has bad managers and doesn't make money, it is likelyto go bust. (You could illustrate this on a chart if you wanted to - management quality versus earnings or whatever - would it then be mysterious and require tea leaves for proper interpretation?)
    TA (one example): If a share price has fallen to a certain value but no further many times in the past it is likely to fall no further this time. If it does fall further this time (ie. breaks support)it is very likely to keep falling.
    Not a difficult concept to grasp really. This was Phaedrus' point in his original post for this thread.
    Manuia le aso

  19. #39
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    LAWSO, Knowing we live in a stupid corrupt world suits me. I understand what happens and use it to my advantage. When a chart starts to react in an odd way i think wait for me and climb aboard. Incidentely i have a son in law that works for one of the companies mentioned and was informed a couple of weeks ago about likely outcome. When its all over the price will continue to drop. DISCLOSURE NIL SHARES HELD macdunk

  20. #40
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    Monday 8 November 2:16 PM


    NZ's Sanford f'casts yr profit to rise 12-14 pct



    WELLINGTON, Nov 8 (Reuters) - New Zealand fishing company Sanford Ltd. (NZSE: SAN) said on Monday it expected annual profit to rise up to 14 percent, despite a flat first half result.

    "With the inclusion of contributions from asset sales, foreign exchange hedging gains and reasonable trading results in the second half of the year, it is expected that the final result will be approximately 12-14 percent ahead of the result for the 13-month period last year," the company said in a statement.

    The company posted a net profit of NZ$47.3 million last year and a flat first half profit of NZ$23.7 million, as large foreign exchange gains helped to offset lower export sales.

    Sanford, New Zealand's only publicly listed fishing company, would release its annual result after the market closes on Nov. 25.

    Shares in Sanford, which changed its balance date last year, last traded up five cents at NZ$4.40.

    In October, Sanford said it would pay NZ$137 million to purchase assets of privately owned Simunovich Fisheries.

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