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Thread: SANford Chart

  1. #41
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    What they don't say is: "Take out profit on asset sales and FOREX hedging, and we had a really awful year" suppose we just have to wait to see full extent on 25 November.


  2. #42
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    The market has responded positively to the announcements of late in the short-term.

    I will be watching with interest how things stack up following the profit announcement post-market closure on the 24th. Will the recent share-price gains hold or will we see the stock sold off again?

    Regards JAMP
    NZX: MCH MFT RBD SAN SKX SPN VTX WRI
    Unlisted: BRK

  3. #43
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    This chart update provides a picture-perfect textbook illustration of Support, when broken, becoming Resistance. The reversals that you see here are accurate right to the cent, even though they have been spread over 4 years. The market has a long memory.
    Note that the big rise on Friday carried SAN above the crucial $4.70 resistance level.


  4. #44
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    Jamp, Only my opinion might be wrong but i know a little bit about the industry. In the short term profit will increase because of the scampi fishery recently purchased hense the rise in share price. The long term it is a different story. Over fishing reduced catches long term i think the outlook is not to good. The scampi fishery at the moment is a money makeing machine the other part is on decline. macdunk

  5. #45
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    I agree Macdunk
    I'v worked in the fishing industry for a few years and i can assure people that this industry is in serious decline - To put it simply, there's not enough fish out there to catch.

    Rising fuel prices is just another nail in the coffin of the fishing industry.


    Mick
    He who lives by the crystal ball soon learns to eat ground glass. (Edgar Fiedler)

  6. #46
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    It must be the contrarian within I guess. There are a few storm clouds brewing, but somehow I don't believe that we have all the necessary components for a "perfect storm".

    Supply issues are not going to go away, so there is no point in the industry burying their head in the recently dredged sand and thinking they will. I guess that leaves the other side of the equation, demand. Do we see a shift to the next best product (essentially leaving S&D curve unchanged), or do we see a new supply curve with equilibrium moving up the demand curve?

    Regards JAMP
    NZX: MCH MFT RBD SAN SKX SPN VTX WRI
    Unlisted: BRK

  7. #47
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    Must be another thread somewhere for SAN but this is the only one when searching

    However announced result late afternoon, headlines -

    Group profit declined from $26.1m last year to $19.7m this year; however, the
    profit decline would have been substantially greater had we not earned a
    capital gain of $7.6m from the sale of our investment in Argentina and a
    $2.2m gain on the reversal of our 2005 write down of our Canadian investment
    in Fishery Products International Limited (FPI). The underlying result from
    the main business activities was impacted by the continuing high New Zealand
    dollar exchange rate and rising fuel prices.


    Doesn't look too bad until you see the impact of the capital gains - which sort of says that the profit this year would have only been $9M odd without y=them

    Nearly $400M of sales and stuff all profit must be frustrating for all .... all that hard work in smelly working conditions (at least for the workers) for not much profit but at least shareholders get 13 cents a share .... just as well as the capital gains eh

    Highlights the fragility of NZ exporters and the impact of the high dollar and their inability to compete with the rest of the world when it is high .... and the ever increasing cost of fuel is a double whammy

    Consensus might be that both could improve but another year of struggling for SAN if the NZD doesn't fall and their is some fuel cost relief .... at least management seems reasonably comfortable

    Amazed that the SAN shareprice has stayed up as high as it has over the years .... still about where it was 3 years ago and not that many exporters can say that

  8. #48
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    Default Exchange Rate

    Quote Originally Posted by american psycho View Post
    ... he said he was going to start hedging when the dollar hit 0.60 earlier in the year, but don't think it was there long enough to get any hedging in.
    Unfortunately the dollar hasn't been anywhere near US 60c this year, the low point was more than US 66c.


  9. #49
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    Default SAN Chart Update.

    Quote Originally Posted by tobo View Post
    A good LT industry to be in (but) I'd better take Phaedrus's general advice and wait for the downtrend to turn, first, before buying
    I'll bet you're glad you hung fire there, Tobo. 6 months later and the downtrend still hasn't ended! There is some news, though..... Yesterday SAN released their 6 month report - profits are down by 79.4%. This must have come as a surprise to some holders because the shareprice has dropped another 19 cents since then. SAN's weakness is no news for TA users, though. For them, this is simply the continuation of a pre-existing confirmed downtrend that has been running for over a year, so far.

    In spite of SAN being a relatively lightly traded stock, this chart provides some nice clear illustrations of simple, kindergarten level TA in action. Note the (unsustainably) steep uptrend. See how the break of the confirmed trendline gave a very timely Sell signal, locking in profits. This signal confirmed the OBV trendline break Sell signal that had preceded it by several weeks. The OBV is supposed to be a "leading" indicator, firing ahead of price action and that is certainly what happened here.
    The magenta trendline marking the subsequent downtrend was broken in early 2009, but see how this "buy" signal had no volume confirmation. The OBV was not rising. Those who understand the importance of volume would have ignored this signal.
    Look now at the uptrend of early 2009 as marked by the light green trendline. See how this uptrend continued to lack the confirmation of a rising OBV - In fact, the OBV was falling - this uptrend had no future. It ended after a few short months, beginning the current downtrend which has run for over a year, so far.
    Note the surgical precision with which the peaks of this downtrend fall on the trendline. Neat eh? I never cease to marvel at just how linear trends can be.



    Lessons :-
    (1) Don't buy downtrending stocks.
    (2) Don't act on any single unconfirmed signal.
    (3) By the time the company reports the bad news that "explains" the fall, it's too late.
    (4) Don't buy downtrending stocks!

  10. #50
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    Thanks, Phaedrus..

    Another fine tutorial!

    SAN would be on a lot of watchlists I would think - it's on mine - and the recent weakness in the NZD might have tempted some buyers. A good example of the value in overlaying a bit of basic TA over fundamentals.

  11. #51
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    Good stuff Phaedrus, I was looking at SAN yesturday and was going to ask you to post a chart on them. Being a kindergarten level TA this has definatley helped. Cheers

  12. #52
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    A thing of beauty!
    (Not the price if you are a holder, but the clear and present story told by this chart.)
    Thanks, Ph.

    I guess it wasn't TOO much of a surprise, as it had already dropped near $2.
    But you've got to think that if an established business is valued purely on it's earnings, 80% drop on earnings could theoretically be reflected by an 80% drop in sp.

  13. #53
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    Based on the advise below, I believe Sanford is about to embark on a serious program to combine all their various recent aquisitions and exisiting operations into a streamlined and well managed operation. I believe this will include younger and fresher management taking on bigger and more important roles in the near future, which is a positive. With Hoki quotas expected to increase significantly over the next 3-5 years combined with significantly increased quota holdings through aquisitions, Sanford will need to invest in upgrading its catching and processing resources and they have a history at doing so at very good prices. Hopefully they will repeat this again BUT they need to make sure they invest in world class equipment. If they do, I would hope this company will go from strengt to strength in the next few years.
    Discl: Hold SAN

    Sanford Moving Forward

    For some time the Board of Directors have been reviewing the development options for the future growth of Sanford Limited. While having been generally satisfied with the results over the last few years and have continued to support growth both by acquisition and direct investment they believe it is now time to start looking at new ways of going forward. Examples of acquisitions and investment include the Jones Group assets, the NIMPL expansion, the Bluff Salmon farm expansion, the Sealord mussel farm purchases, the new inshore vessel San Hikurangi and the expansion of mussel opening technology at Havelock. They remain concerned that we are still subject to significant outside influences that determine our performance. While exchange rates is a significant influence it is not the only one and they believe it is now time to put in place management strategies that build further on our strengths and fundamentally examine the way in which we transact our business from the ocean to our customers in a way that continues our leadership in sustainable seafood. We need to examine our products and processes and our systems of determining what are the best markets and channels to those markets and what product form maximises value. For some years we have struggled to earn our cost of capital and the only way to improve that is to lift our earnings and/or reduce our capital.

    The Board has approved a revised management structure that will reduce the number of direct reports to me and allow me to focus on reviewing and developing the 10 or so strategic relationships we have with various companies. At the same time and on a more regular basis these three new roles will expose the Board to senior management tasked with moving the company forward.

    Consequently from 1 January 2011 a new structure will be put in place with three direct reports to me.

    Those roles will be:-



    General Manager Operations

    This role will cover all operating divisions of the business. It will include Inshore, Deepwater, Aquaculture, Pacific Tuna, China, and Industry Liaison roles. Division or existing Managers will report through the General Manager Operations position.



    Greg Johansson will be appointed to this role and this will involve him relocating to Auckland and a new appointment to the role of Deepwater Division Manager based in Timaru will be made as a consequence of this.



    General Manager Marketing and Development

    This role will cover all marketing (including the appointment of a marketing team leader), quality management, product specifications, logistics, plus responsibility for Australian activities. It will also take responsibility for the formation of a product innovation and development capability that will look at developing more efficient, effective and sustainable ways of meeting customer requirements.



    Vaughan Wilkinson will be appointed to this role which will involve him relinquishing responsibility for the Pacific Tuna and Industry Liaison roles but taking on responsibility for Australia and leading the new product innovation and development capability.



    General Manager Finance and Administration

    This role will cover all finance and banking, sustainability systems, secretarial and quota administration, accounting and IT systems, insurance, ACC and superannuation and executive support systems. Further development of our software systems and coordinating the expansion of our website and converting it to multi lingual will be an early focus of this role.



    Dean McIntosh will be appointed to this role which will also require him to mentor with others in similar roles in similar sized companies.



    The establishment of these roles is intended to strengthen the structure of the business and the existing executive will continue to meet with the same attendees and reporting as occurred in the past. These changes in no way diminish the roles or responsibilities of the Division Managers and they and I will continue to interact on a regular or as required basis.



    If you have any queries or questions on this email please contact myself.



    Kind Regards

    ><(((☺>

    Eric Barratt

    Managing Director

  14. #54
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    This story about Sanford's use of slave labour to catch their fish is an absolute disgrace and very dangerous to NZ's good reputation for ethical food production and thus NZ Inc.

    Whistleblower in hiding after 'slavery' storm

    Orginal Businessweek story:

    Slaves Put Squid on U.S. Dining Tables From South Pacificís Cruelest Catch

    I will not be investing in Sanford until the current management and fishing practices are changed. Blaming and pursing the whistleblower is bad management in the extreme.

  15. #55
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    Yes this is a bad story Jaa and I find the initial response from the CEO very unfortunate. It is unacceptable for Sanford to be involved with any companies that behave like has been suggested in the Bloomberg story
    However, the story is not about "Sanford's use of slave labour". The vessel which is at the center of this story has never worked for Sanford but the crew member who is rightly making the claims, did work on a Sanford associated vessel some years ago and has claimed some serious mistreatment happened onboard there as well. Claims that need to be investigated and the truth discovered ASAP. Sanford has had independent observers on all their associated foreign charter fleet for 10 years now and it is incomprehensible that this can happen while they were onboard. If the claims are proven correct, then the observer program has miserably failed, which would be a bad mark against Sanford's management.
    I will wait for all sides of this story to come out before making any decisions on continued investment in Sanford. My experience with Sanford is of very capable management who take their responsibilites seriously and operate openly and honourably.
    Below is a link (I hope it comes out Ok as I never seem to be able to post them correctly) to a recent article by Gareth Morgan which injects some reality into the discussion about use of cheaper labour in NZ.

    http://www.gmi.co.nz/news/1342/outrage-at-foreign-fishing-fleet-hypocritical.aspx[/URL]

    Discl: Hold SAN
    Last edited by iceman; 27-02-2012 at 10:36 AM. Reason: spelling

  16. #56
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    Default Charter fishing vessel wages

    I propose that all wages for foreign chartered fishing vessels be paid into an account under the control of an independent body for forward disbursement to the crew.

    This would give an accurate record of what has or has not been paid and be used to settle wages disputes. It would enable NZ authorities to check payments against pay contracts that the crew sign and are required to be submitted to the authorities. This body should also have the power to act on the behalf of crew to obtain unpaid wages, and act against breaches of the Truck Act


    BVoop boop de do

    Marilyn

  17. #57
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    That is basically what the Government announced yesterday MM. From now on all wages/salaries will need to be paid into a NZ bank account in the name of the individual crew member and under his/her full control. This will ensure that pay rates are easily monitored. But of course there are still issues with what happens once these guys get back to their often very corrupt countries, but that is something the NZ Government or NZ companies can not control. The Government has also announced 100% observer coverage on all foreign charter vessels, something Sanford has been doing voluntarily for 10 years. Both rules are steps in the right direction.

  18. #58
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    Hopefully the changes requiring all fishing quota vessels to NZ flaged wiil bring some stability and respectability to the fishing industry.


    One of the spin-offs I hope to see is introduction of new vessels into the fleet. If these vessels have on-board sale ready processing so much the better.

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...to-new-zealand

    Boop boop de do
    Marilyn
    Diamonds are a girls best friend.

  19. #59
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    Just curious, why does Sanford barely rate a mention on these forums? Is it considered a bit of a dog?

  20. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by ratkin View Post
    Just curious, why does Sanford barely rate a mention on these forums? Is it considered a bit of a dog?
    Not an exciting growth company I suppose. I brought it at what I thought was a decent yield and have done little since then. Old management were disparaged but they focused on quota. New mgmt. focusing on customers but buying dodgy boats and selling some quota in Tauranga which in my uneducated and possibly ignorant opinion would always be a bad idea. Quota is what makes a fishing company attractive in my opinion. The only intangible asset that will always be worth something unless the govt change the system.

    The thread below probably took over any Sanford discussion.

    https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...hlight=sanford

    Hope you are coping with the Covid-19 crisis OK, your earlier posts although prescient did come across as overly negative but it is good to see they have lightened up a bit.
    Last edited by Aaron; 29-03-2020 at 08:35 AM.

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