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Thread: Dow

  1. #41
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    Good call. If the Dow closes over 2% (down) the movement might gain legs and roll on tomorrow - if worry turns to fear. Malcolm's negative earnings results are in. The question and I guess the obvious driver for any "next Dow sell-off" will be how large/un-expected are such down grades.

  2. #42
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    2.2%, no wait 2.36% down now. The Close I guess is however what is important.

  3. #43
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    DOW update. Last few days short squeeze over. Trend is now back down. The SEC naked short sell rules are now baked into the market. Worse to come as the foreclosure tsunami is 100ft high and 1/2 mile from shore......we won't be able to outrun this monster wave. Many will drown.
    The trend is your friend.

  4. #44
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    i would tend to disagree

    this rally has not run high enough to generate the bullish sentiment needed for

    the next leg lower

    last nights drop into a pivot support should allow rally to get back on track

    im picking early august before market turns for a run to new lows

  5. #45
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    Hey DA,

    could be right - looks wave 4-ish at a glance, but NAB might have put the cat amongst the pigeons with their 90% writedown of US CDO portfolio...

    I think this guy has hit the button:

    The National Australia Bank's decision to write off 90 per cent of its US conduit loans will have dramatic repercussions around the world. Wall Street will be deeply shocked when they understand the repercussions of what NAB has done. It is clear global banks have nowhere near provided for their exposures to US housing loans which in the words of John Stewart are experiencing a “meltdown”.

    We are now way beyond sub-prime. NAB says that it is suffering a 55 per cent loss on American housing loans – an event that has never happened in the history of a developed country in recent memory. This is an unprecedented event and means that the cost of bailing out the US financial system is now far beyond the highest estimates. A US recession is now locked in, but more alarmingly, 55 per cent loan losses point to the possibility of a depression.

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/...cument&src=sph


    55% is ballpark - the secondary market here is trading at abt 65 cents in the dollar


    Sorry to bring fundamentals into the frame
    Last edited by Xerof; 25-07-2008 at 02:57 PM.

  6. #46
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    hi xerof , how is it going in the states along way from havelock north

    and did you set up the "Fund of Funds"

    i reckon the key to that statement is

    "when they understand the repercussions "

    still possibilty of an irrational rally to greater heights in fact i think its a high probability

    before they work it out

  7. #47
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    i think your a few minutes short of the qualifying mark for beijing , malcolm

    were conditions bad when you did your time ?

  8. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by absolut-advance View Post
    Can you do it Naked...?
    Only with CFD's these days...

  9. #49
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    Thanks Xerof, the full read is rather chilling. Just on that, sounds like a next wave of sell-offs is approaching quickly then. As others note, be interesting to see how quickly the Dow reacts. I guess it really hits the fan when the 1st US bank does an NAB and comes clean. If they are in the same position, it must be soon. Thanks again for the heads up!

  10. #50
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    Friday closed with a whimper, although Financials are the only sector in the red (with an hour to go)

    DA, actually I leave for Godzone tomorrow. With no Visa, I have to get out of here every 90 days for at least 10.

    I saw Qantas had a bit of a mare flight out of HK this morning - I'll make sure I bolt myself to my sleeper....

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