Dow

[lakedaemonian]

Still in cash overseas (but doing a bit of very short term trading!) but watching ...

Dow - Is it double bottom time? Or was it just a bear-rally...
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5ED...a=ss,vm,r14&c=

FTE - looking like a simlar question ...
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=%5Ef...%2Cvm%2Cr14&c=

US ... Question answered in the next couple of weeks - suspect the Obama presidency will create a boost.

Another crash like last night's in Europe will probably see me the enter FTSE with a plan to spread buying over 3-6 months.

Seems to be consensus amoung global economists that 2nd half of 2009 the ship will stop floundering and start steaming again ... (My brokers in both Europe and US are hounding me to enter ... but they were 3 months ago too!)

I think any "Obama Effect" will be temporary at best.

Trading opportunities sure, investing opportunities, no.....I'm clearly putting my money where my mouth is and staying away

There will be no (relatively speaking) quick and easy "Morning in America"...this is going to take YEARS to even BEGIN to fix.

And in the meantime......consumer spending related corporate earnings will spiral downwards which will push up P/Es, push down share prices.

And that's all BEFORE the pending public/private pension disaster rears it's ugly head.

Any company sailing in such stormy seas will also have to deal with wind in their face, rather than wind at their back......with likely long-term net withdrawals due to demographics/hardship.

"Stuff" may not offer dividends, but "stuff" will likely weather this storm better than other options once inflation kicks off again.

[Lizard]

Oops... only 0.5% rate cut when the market wanted 1.0%... down they lurch again...

[peat]

triple bottom on the daily?

[peat]

who knows.
but triples are more meaningful than doubles and it marks a clear line for determining risk

[brettdale]

Down to 7552.

How low can it go????

below 7000?

Surly not?

[ananda77]

...most likely, a short, devastating intraday capitulation spike down to 6700 for the DJI and 670 for the SP500 still ahead and not too far into the future;

Kind Regards

[brettdale]

Hats off to Obama for his pick.

[ananda77]

One intra day spike? I guessing quite a few ... This going to bed at 7:00 pm and waking up at 3:00 am is beginning to get on my nerves. Still, trading from your laptop while sitting on the toilet makes for some interesting thought processes ... ... (was that too much information? )

...yes, one intraday spike...

...because if it turns out that way as THE FLOOR, it is only a floor of some serious kind, if the market consequently makes a higher high and a higher low (today the market made a lower low before a bit of a rally, therefore what we saw on Thursday was not the floor);

...and I think, given the serious state of market oversoldness, that in case of a floor, the higher low will be some 15 - 30 (%) higher than the previous low; and I do not want to miss out on the potential 15 - 30 (%) off the floor;

...ergo, fully invested now, but with a capital hedge

...otherwise the market will seriously crash in oversold territory

Kind Regards

[trendy]

...yes, one intraday spike...

...because if it turns out that way as THE FLOOR, it is only a floor of some serious kind, if the market consequently makes a higher high and a higher low (today the market made a lower low before a bit of a rally, therefore what we saw on Thursday was not the floor);

...and I think, given the serious state of market oversoldness, that in case of a floor, the higher low will be some 15 - 30 (%) higher than the previous low; and I do not want to miss out on the potential 15 - 30 (%) off the floor;

...ergo, fully invested now, but with a capital hedge

...otherwise the market will seriously crash in oversold territory

Kind Regards

I beg too differ as this is not going to be a clearly defined V bottom, we are in for a multi-year grind downwards and at best slow flat lining before trending back up. Bottom is not in.

More bad news to come in this deflationary environment. Bank lending here has slowed/stopped as they desperately try to hoard cash to protect balance sheet. Citigroup is another catastrophe that other banks will be redoubling efforts to avoid. Banks are so in need of cash they are now offering i-rates of greater than 4% for retail term deposits at a time when the FED is giving cash away at near 1%. Credit is evaporating for many businesses.

The FED is using everything they have to try and inflate the economy but unless credit can flow to the consumer it is as good as useless.

[ananda77]

I beg too differ as this is not going to be a clearly defined V bottom, we are in for a multi-year grind downwards and at best slow flat lining before trending back up. Bottom is not in.

More bad news to come in this deflationary environment. Bank lending here has slowed/stopped as they desperately try to hoard cash to protect balance sheet. Citigroup is another catastrophe that other banks will be redoubling efforts to avoid. Banks are so in need of cash they are now offering i-rates of greater than 4% for retail term deposits at a time when the FED is giving cash away at near 1%. Credit is evaporating for many businesses.

The FED is using everything they have to try and inflate the economy but unless credit can flow to the consumer it is as good as useless.

Trendy:

...basically agree with your sentiment, more bad news, more crunch, more market down momentum, etc, etc, but stick to my floor outline nevertheless, if we finally see THE FLOOR.

...at current levels (Friday's intraday low/SP 500) the market has priced in a 'recession', but it looks like the world is going to get a 'severe one', possibly most severe. Consequently, trading levels down to 600 or even 500 are possible, even likely.

Kind Regards