sharetrader
Page 11 of 107 FirstFirst ... 7891011121314152161 ... LastLast
Results 101 to 110 of 1069

Thread: Dow

  1. #101
    Member
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Auckland, New Zealand
    Posts
    482

    Smile DOW poised for a Short term "BEAR RALLY" and a "short squeeze"

    good to see copper recover following a big dip last week............copper up approx 7% following a string of positives coming out of the US.....Obama anouncing his economic team and GOVT backing CITIBANK and gaining preference shares .............now all we need to do is get the banks to lend back out to the market to help stimulate the economy .....Obama also talking about creating 2.5 million jobs in relation to roading ,infastructure, schools and alternative fuels, so thats good for base metals in general

    China uses 25% of all total copper produced and it looks like the chinese governments will also inject money into their economy.........

    so today all in all we may see the beginning of a "short term bear rally" and hopefully we may see a "short squeeze" rally which means the shorters will have to buy back the shares that they loaned then sold the market down with.

    I enjoy seeing the shorters suffer.....as they are responsible for excessively overselling the market..............

    sould get a good bounce today ........GOLD up to $820 COPPER up 7% DOW up 300 points(currently with 1. 1/2 hours to go)............all good signs for a fat bear RALLY!!!!
    \"if women didn,t exist , all the money in the world would mean nothing\" Aristotle Anasis.

    \"The trend is your friend\"

    \"A mans reach should always extend beyond his grasp" J.F Kennedy

  2. #102
    Guru
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Hamilton New Zealand.
    Posts
    4,251

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by SCHUMACHER View Post
    good to see copper recover following a big dip last week............copper up approx 7% following a string of positives coming out of the US.....Obama anouncing his economic team and GOVT backing CITIBANK and gaining preference shares .............now all we need to do is get the banks to lend back out to the market to help stimulate the economy .....Obama also talking about creating 2.5 million jobs in relation to roading ,infastructure, schools and alternative fuels, so thats good for base metals in general

    China uses 25% of all total copper produced and it looks like the chinese governments will also inject money into their economy.........

    so today all in all we may see the beginning of a "short term bear rally" and hopefully we may see a "short squeeze" rally which means the shorters will have to buy back the shares that they loaned then sold the market down with.

    I enjoy seeing the shorters suffer.....as they are responsible for excessively overselling the market..............

    sould get a good bounce today ........GOLD up to $820 COPPER up 7% DOW up 300 points(currently with 1. 1/2 hours to go)............all good signs for a fat bear RALLY!!!!
    Yeah, it could even be a big fat 30+% bear market rally.

    Mentioning copper rally in the same breath as DOW bear market rally..some rules apply with the interrelation with the two.

    Russell Napier's bear market studies has proved there is a highly significant correlation (over 90%) between the bottom of copper prices and the bottom of the Dow. (Other commodity prices have a lower significance correlation factor)

    Spot Copper bottom precedes (1month or less) or coincides with DOW bottom.

    For bottom pickers, they should all be watching copper as well as other indicators.

    See my posts at http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...t=5171&page=10 for the copper charts as well as other Bear market reactive indicators.


    Even with spot copper rising to 1.66, it is still in a medium (and primary) downtrend
    (Note .. this downtrend is weakening significantly).

    SCHUMACHER is correct in the assumption that if the DOW rallies now it would be another Bear Market rally..but I must add this qualifying point ...."as long as the copper prices remains within its downtrending channel".


    If Spot Copper keeps rising from today and if it breaks out of its downtrend there is a good chance it would have bottomed therefore the DOW has or will also bottom and the resulting rally would not be a technical bear market rally but a Bull market (1) rally. Both types of rallies are similar in nature, they are equally as dangerous to the unwary investors capital as both types of rally end with severe pull backs ..the bear market rally back to form a lower bottom and the Bull Market (1) rally back to maybe be severe enough to test but not break the previous bottom and create fear that the Bear market is still alive when in actual fact its technically not.

    As with all phase changes relying on Equity market index data alone, it could be months later before the majority (including copper watchers) realise, or convinced that a bear market phase had ended.

    Copper + Dow theory being reliable indicators helps assess earlier the situation (phase changes) with the aid or hinderance of other lesser reliable indicators.

    Good Luck

  3. #103
    Guru
    Join Date
    Apr 2007
    Location
    Hamilton New Zealand.
    Posts
    4,251

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by belgarion View Post
    DOW and SP500 up over 11% in last two trading days ... But still not enough to break through steeply declining 20 day EMAs ... Hey, but looking on the bright side - they climbed above the steeply declining 10 day ema

    Keeping the power dry...
    A problem with V shaped retracements (bottoms?)..eh Belgarion

    If ? it is a fat 30% bear? market rally its nearly half gone gone already...frustrating times.
    Last edited by Hoop; 25-11-2008 at 09:30 AM.

  4. #104
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    New Zealand.
    Posts
    1,465

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by belgarion View Post
    True Hoop ... But with i-rates as they are (a'fallin' steeply), there's little point keeping the money in the bank ... will be back in slected stocks in the US and Europe before Christmas methinks ... whether we're at the bottom or not.
    ...nearly 100% cash again this evening, now short in the market and accumulating...it is a funny game...

    Kind Regards
    Last edited by ananda77; 02-09-2009 at 06:12 AM.

  5. #105
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2007
    Location
    North Shore
    Posts
    1,088

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by ananda77 View Post
    ...nearly 100% cash again this evening, now short in the market and accumulating...it is a funny game...

    Kind Regards
    Ananda what do you think...is this a fake out or a break out?
    Disclaimer: Do not take my posts seriously. They are only opinions.

    AMR has sold all shares and is pursuing property.

  6. #106
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    New Zealand.
    Posts
    1,465

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by AMR View Post
    Ananda what do you think...is this a fake out or a break out?
    AMR:
    ...short - medium term:

    *markets seem to try a bottoming process
    *institutions still net distributive
    *liquidity inflows improving but still in negative territory

    ...if market fundamentals start improving over the short to medium term, markets could bear rally through to year end;

    ...long term:

    FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile
    ALL INSTITUTIONS PERFORMANCE
    THIRD QUARTER 2008
    http://www2.fdic.gov/qbp/2008sep/qbpall.html#2

    ...I do not think that the financial sector bottom is in after reading this report (look at the expanding charge-offs) and therefore, I do not think a general market bottom is in...

    ...my strategy remains unchanged:

    *in the market with core holding
    *capital hedged but now 'short biased accumulating'

    Kind Regards

  7. #107
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2003
    Location
    , , New Zealand.
    Posts
    80

    Default

    somethings that have caught my attention today which if we have a down day next session in the US and i guess we will i will put in a small buy.

    We are at resistance on the BKX should bounce off that and "Trader Vic’s 4-Day Rule" suggests that will be

    volume is light on this holiday week, did the stocks rise cause of light volume.
    previously action aournd the 2002 lows shows we are near a support and volume was picking up

    my scenarios have never play out as expected

  8. #108
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    New Zealand.
    Posts
    1,465

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by belgarion View Post
    Now it's official ... US is in Recession ... If memory serves, isn't it time to buy when it becomes official?
    ...those were the days belgarion, when the official announcement of a recession signaled the end of a bear party;

    ...but these days, as long as the CDS time bomb is ticking away and ready to explode soon, the world financial system remains extremely unstable;

    Kind Regards

  9. #109
    Member
    Join Date
    Jan 2003
    Location
    , , New Zealand.
    Posts
    80

    Default

    i didnt go long cause it didnt go down on friday as i thought, but i never expected such a sell off

    signs of a bottom http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_market_bottom

    these shouldnt be to hard to spot without to much effort, waiting for it is though, for me trying to pick a time when it will turn around is probably costly and should just continue waiting for the signs prob best to think of it as watching and not waiting

    my most reliable one is looking at the number of stocks and sectors making new lows and how far the stocks current price is in relation to its recent new low, as is just the opposite with a top

  10. #110
    Member Yossarian's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2005
    Location
    New Zealand
    Posts
    178

    Default

    unlikely with the auto bailout dead... it's going to be ugly tonight.

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •