Dow

[ananda77]

8 really, really scary predictions
Dow 4,000. Food shortages. A bubble in Treasury notes. Fortune spoke to eight of
the market's sharpest thinkers and what they had to say about the future is
frightening.
http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/...une/index.html

...my startegy has not changed for this market:

-long- shares (again) at earning multiples <9/yield 8.2 (net)
...of course -GOLD, The TOP Safety Play FOREVER-
-dynamic hedging 'short biased accumulating'

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

...nice retrace on the SP 500 towards last weekend, maybe ending at ~850 early next week, then rebounding to 1040, before heading deep south...

-long- shares at earning multiples <9/yield 8.2 (net)
...of course -GOLD, The TOP Safety Play FOREVER-
-dynamic hedging: 'neutral' to 963 then 'short biased accumulating'

[ananda77]

...nice retrace on the SP 500 towards last weekend, maybe ending at ~850 early next week, then rebounding to 1040, before heading deep south...

-long- shares at earning multiples <9/yield 8.2 (net)
...of course -GOLD, The TOP Safety Play FOREVER-
-dynamic hedging: 'neutral' to 963 then 'short biased accumulating'

-long- shares 'core holding'
...of course -GOLD, The TOP Safety Play FOREVER-
-dynamic hedging: short + 'accumulating from 973'; sell stops <850 'biased accumulating'

Kind Regards

[AMR]

-long- shares 'core holding'
...of course -GOLD, The TOP Safety Play FOREVER-
-dynamic hedging: short + 'accumulating from 973'; sell stops <850 'biased accumulating'

Kind Regards

Ananda what's this "dynamic hedging" you are talking about? Are you using put options or something similar?

[ananda77]

AMR:

...usually use a variety of US indices like the SP500 or the Russell2000 to hedge my share holding;

...dynamic hedging for me means usually to design a hedge (in theory and see it in action on paper first) which is ideal = neutral; then work/change in a bias (risk) according to MARKET FUNDAMENTALS!!!!; for example, you may work additional long leverage for your shares into a short biased hedge;
...market turns are more likely at certain points (usually support/resistance points in a longer time frame) which provide exit strategies

Kind Regards

[airedale]

The records show that the first 5 days of the year...then so goes the year.
In 31 of the past 36 years the Dow's first five days of trading have predicted whether the market finished higher or lower for the year.
Thursday will be the fifth day of trading on the US markets, so we should know on Friday morning.

[ananda77]

...in the daily time frame, November 20th. marked the floor and this current rally could extent all the way up to:

-DOW ~10000
-SP 500 ~1100

...however, very much! doubt! that without further consolidation between ~850 and ~935_~950_~960_~973 (take your pick), this present rally will go 'head on' all the way to the top; furthermore:

...without confirmation of the 20th. November floor on a longer weekly time frame (at the VERY MINIMUM!!!! and ABSOLUTELY ESSENTIAL!!!!), this present rally remains in the category 'bear_sucker's_head_fake;

-it definitely is not a new BOOM-BOOM BULL MARKET;

Kind Regards

[tricha]

concur ... I think we'll see Nov 20 lows tested again once companies start reporting - nothing like hard numbers to shake investors up. Last quarter of 2008 was abismal for many as sales for many just stopped. Trading each dead cat bounce after the bad results and then going long once a subsequent trend is established will be the name of the game. Alas - sleep deprevation looks a certainty for earley 2009.

18 monthes into recession and it looks all up hill from here for 2009, there is no light at the end of this tunnel, 6 months from now change the R to a Big D

Copper Falls for Second Day on Concern About U.S. Recession
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By Claudia Carpenter
Jan. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Copper and nickel slid for a second day in London as reports showed the U.S. recession may be deepening, curbing demand for industrial metals further.
Copper has dropped more than 60 percent since the beginning of July as a worsening housing market in the U.S. crimped demand for the metal used in pipes and wiring. U.S. crude oil inventories jumped more than expected to the highest since May, and companies pared 693,000 jobs in December, also exceeding economists’ forecasts, reports showed yesterday.
“Fairly poor data for U.S. employment and the latest U.S. inventory data reaffirm weakness in the economy,” said Dan Smith, an analyst at Standard Chartered Plc in London.
Copper for delivery in three months fell $90, or 2.7 percent, to $3,250 a metric ton as of 1:54 p.m. on the London Metal Exchange. It declined 1.5 percent yesterday and was a record $8,940 on July 2. The Comex March-delivery copper contract fell 2.1 percent to $1.4795 a pound.
LS-Nikko Copper Inc., operator of the world’s third-largest copper refiner and smelter, plans to cut this year’s output by 10 percent on falling demand.
Nickel, which is used in stainless steel, declined $650, or 5.3 percent, to $11,650 a ton. Nippon Yakin Kogyo Co., a Japanese stainless steel producer, said it will suspend production at its plant in Kawasaki, near Tokyo, for three days a month as it cuts output by 60 percent from first-half levels.
Nickel jumped as much as 13 percent this year and copper climbed to a one-month high on speculation government spending programs will revive economies, spurring consumption of homes, cars and other items that contain industrial metals.
Opportunity to Sell
Buying by index funds that helped support nickel prices as they rebalance their holdings provided an opportunity for other investors to sell inventory, Smith said. Nickel may drop to less than $10,000 a ton in the next few weeks, he said.
The UBS Bloomberg CMCI Index of 26 commodities dropped 4.2 percent yesterday, the first drop this year. It was down another 1.1 percent today.
“Improvement in sentiment disappeared fairly quickly,” Smith said.
The number of Americans getting unemployment benefit rose to 4.6 million last week, the most since 1982, the Labor Department said in Washington today. First-time filers fell by 24,000 to 467,000. Jobless claims were projected to rise to 545,000, economists said in a Bloomberg News survey.
Tin fell $250 to $11,350 a ton, zinc dropped $27 to $1,263 a ton and aluminum declined $39 to $1,555 a ton. Lead increased $11 to $1,151 a ton.
To contact the reporter on this story: Claudia Carpenter in London at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net or ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: January 8, 2009 09:21 EST

[airedale]

The records show that the first 5 days of the year...then so goes the year.
In 31 of the past 36 years the Dow's first five days of trading have predicted whether the market finished higher or lower for the year.
Thursday will be the fifth day of trading on the US markets, so we should know on Friday morning.

Well after the first five trading days on the Dow, the crystal ball gives a negative forecast for 2009.
It closed at 8,776 on 31/12/08 and closed this morning NZ time at 8,742.
Just 34 points short of the target.

[Hoop]

Hoop sees an ascending triangle. This is often a strong bullish sign....but can be bearish in a downtrend ..
The other indicators are mostly bullish (rising above zero and trending upwards)) William% at 50
Therefore good chance the DOW index will break upwards out of the ascending triangle. Watch to see if resistance is broken (orange line 9080) if that happens the next big resistance is 9500
Conversely if the DOW index respects the 9080 orange line resistance level and drops to break the 8400 support that could spell the end to this latest market rally*

*Note Hoop did not mention bear market rally just a market rally
Hoop not sure if the current market is still a bear Market or the first phase of a new Bull market. Testing the Nov 2008 bottom or slight lowering below the old bottom but in general terms respecting the old low(bottom) will indicate that a new bull has already been born....only time will tell....



Todays index close 8743 not marked on the chart