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Thread: Dow

  1. #121
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
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    ...again, a nice retrace over the last few days; although the SPX 500 stuck to the 910 level (until Friday trading in the US), further upside remained unconfirmed by the DOW and consequently:

    ...getting used to the 'stuffed up' market logic, markets used the ??GOOD NEWS??? (only 524000 - problem over) to drive indexes down, possibly for a re-test of at least ~850, maybe even a re-test of the 20th November low;

    ...if the 20th. November low confirms, then the current rally will hit it's target zone of DOW ~10000 and SP500 ~1100;

    ...after that it's the hell out of there...

    Kind Regards
    Last edited by ananda77; 10-01-2009 at 03:27 PM. Reason: correction

  2. #122
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    looks like the bear flag has well and truly broken now.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  3. #123
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
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    ...still consolidating, trading to >83, well >82.4 support/resistance; likely to test 85-level;

    Kind Regards

  4. #124
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoop View Post
    Hoop sees an ascending triangle. This is often a strong bullish sign....but can be bearish in a downtrend ..
    The other indicators are mostly bullish (rising above zero and trending upwards)) William% at 50
    Therefore good chance the DOW index will break upwards out of the ascending triangle. Watch to see if resistance is broken (orange line 9080) if that happens the next big resistance is 9500
    Conversely if the DOW index respects the 9080 orange line resistance level and drops to break the 8400 support that could spell the end to this latest market rally*

    *Note Hoop did not mention bear market rally just a market rally
    Hoop not sure if the current market is still a bear Market or the first phase of a new Bull market. Testing the Nov 2008 bottom or slight lowering below the old bottom but in general terms respecting the old low(bottom) will indicate that a new bull has already been born....only time will tell....



    Todays index close 8743 not marked on the chart

    Dow respected the 8400 support line during intraday trading today....

    ...maybe just maybe it may bounce back up from here.....
    ...if not

  5. #125
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    Default Dow Watching



    The Dow appears to be forming a Stage 1 base. Watch for the 50 day MA to start flattening before [hopefully] rising.

  6. #126
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
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    ...test of 20th November low coming up;

    -little bounces up along the way will matter little and are no more then shorting points

    ...based on fundamentals, personally doubt 20th November low will hold, but before the market goes lower, we could see a rally to DOW 10000, SP 500 1100;

    Kind Regards

  7. #127
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    Quote Originally Posted by ananda77 View Post
    ...test of 20th November low coming up;

    -little bounces up along the way will matter little and are no more then shorting points

    ...based on fundamentals, personally doubt 20th November low will hold, but before the market goes lower, we could see a rally to DOW 10000, SP 500 1100;

    Kind Regards
    Ananda
    Your post says to me that you think we are still in a bear market......You may be right.

    Time could be near to see a testing of the lows.

    **If 7450 (7449.4 Intraday low) gets cleaned out it will prove a bear market is still operating.
    **If say a new low just under the old low e.g 7400 there will still be doubt.
    **If the old lows are respected this time there is a good chance that it would prove that a Bull Market (1) is operating.


    The significance in wanting to know whether a bear market has ended, is that it gives a marker as to how long the recession will last...usually the equities will start rising halfway (Av 58%) through a recession so if 20 Nov is the low point, add 8 months e.g July2009 and the USA should start to see an economic upturn.
    Without this (and other) markers, people can only speculate the length of this recession
    Theorey has it that the longer the duration of an equity bear market the longer the wait for the economic upturn with more economic damage occurring with an increasing lag time effect for recovery mode.

    It is usually the second half of any recession that the causality count increases with the associated increasingly bad and very gloomy media news.... paradoxically... occurring at a time when the equity market has already found a bottom and is trying to find a way upwards.


    Subject to the name Bull market ...Bull market phase 1 is not a fun place for investors if fact it can be a frustrating time, many investors come in only to be cleaned out by an unexpected company failure or get trapped with lagging stocks.


    However before the lows get tested there are still some resistance levels that the selling pressure has to be strong enough to force itself through. these are the orange lines at 8150 and 8000. The top of the 3 middle orange lines (8400) has been breached




    Last edited by Hoop; 15-01-2009 at 11:24 AM. Reason: added.... (Av ..) average from other recessions equalled 58%

  8. #128
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    There's more data coming out of the US.

    If the data shows bad news, then it is all over. I feel like shorting the Dow and/or Aussie market.

    I just have to drink a few beers to get enough courage to short at these levels... LOL
    Having got ourselves into a debt-induced economic crisis, the only permanent way out is to reduce the debt – either directly by abolishing large slabs of it, or indirectly by inflating it away.

  9. #129
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dr_Who View Post
    There's more data coming out of the US.

    If the data shows bad news, then it is all over. I feel like shorting the Dow and/or Aussie market.

    I just have to drink a few beers to get enough courage to short at these levels... LOL
    ...for the very short term (like tomorrow's trading in the US), it is most likely that the Dow will briefly test ~8000 and the SP 500 ~816 (sort of a shake out) before a mini-rally starts again; -a good shorting opportunity accumulating at ~8400, ~8700 and possibly ~9000 (hopefully, but very much doubt the 9000 level)-

    ...it is most unlikely that the Dow and the SP 500 will immediately test the 20th. November low, more likely is, the 20th November test and if successful, the subsequent rally to Dow ~10000 and SP 500 ~1100 will coincide with the change in the US Government next week;


    ...after that, the bears will take charge once more or the bears will continue the party, if the 20th November test fails;

    Kind Regards
    Last edited by ananda77; 16-01-2009 at 06:27 AM. Reason: addition

  10. #130
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    The Selling pressure could not crack that 8000 resistance line but gave it a good test (intraday 7997) before bouncing back to end the day fractionally higher at 8212 (+12).
    Todays action may have settled a few nerves.
    A wee rally from here ? as Ananda suggests....or a retest
    Last edited by Hoop; 16-01-2009 at 09:30 AM.

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