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10-01-2009, 02:04 PM
#121
...again, a nice retrace over the last few days; although the SPX 500 stuck to the 910 level (until Friday trading in the US), further upside remained unconfirmed by the DOW and consequently:
...getting used to the 'stuffed up' market logic, markets used the ??GOOD NEWS??? (only 524000 - problem over) to drive indexes down, possibly for a re-test of at least ~850, maybe even a re-test of the 20th November low;
...if the 20th. November low confirms, then the current rally will hit it's target zone of DOW ~10000 and SP500 ~1100;
...after that it's the hell out of there...
Kind Regards
Last edited by ananda77; 10-01-2009 at 04:27 PM.
Reason: correction
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13-01-2009, 08:45 AM
#122
looks like the bear flag has well and truly broken now.
For clarity, nothing I say is advice....
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13-01-2009, 09:09 PM
#123
...still consolidating, trading to >83, well >82.4 support/resistance; likely to test 85-level;
Kind Regards
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14-01-2009, 10:06 AM
#124
Originally Posted by Hoop
Hoop sees an ascending triangle. This is often a strong bullish sign....but can be bearish in a downtrend ..
The other indicators are mostly bullish (rising above zero and trending upwards)) William% at 50
Therefore good chance the DOW index will break upwards out of the ascending triangle. Watch to see if resistance is broken (orange line 9080) if that happens the next big resistance is 9500
Conversely if the DOW index respects the 9080 orange line resistance level and drops to break the 8400 support that could spell the end to this latest market rally*
*Note Hoop did not mention bear market rally just a market rally
Hoop not sure if the current market is still a bear Market or the first phase of a new Bull market. Testing the Nov 2008 bottom or slight lowering below the old bottom but in general terms respecting the old low(bottom) will indicate that a new bull has already been born....only time will tell....
Todays index close 8743 not marked on the chart
Dow respected the 8400 support line during intraday trading today....
...maybe just maybe it may bounce back up from here.....
...if not
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14-01-2009, 12:16 PM
#125
Dow Watching
The Dow appears to be forming a Stage 1 base. Watch for the 50 day MA to start flattening before [hopefully] rising.
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15-01-2009, 08:40 AM
#126
...test of 20th November low coming up;
-little bounces up along the way will matter little and are no more then shorting points
...based on fundamentals, personally doubt 20th November low will hold, but before the market goes lower, we could see a rally to DOW 10000, SP 500 1100;
Kind Regards
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15-01-2009, 12:15 PM
#127
Last edited by Hoop; 15-01-2009 at 12:24 PM.
Reason: added.... (Av ..) average from other recessions equalled 58%
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15-01-2009, 01:37 PM
#128
There's more data coming out of the US.
If the data shows bad news, then it is all over. I feel like shorting the Dow and/or Aussie market.
I just have to drink a few beers to get enough courage to short at these levels... LOL
Having got ourselves into a debt-induced economic crisis, the only permanent way out is to reduce the debt – either directly by abolishing large slabs of it, or indirectly by inflating it away.
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15-01-2009, 02:31 PM
#129
Originally Posted by Dr_Who
There's more data coming out of the US.
If the data shows bad news, then it is all over. I feel like shorting the Dow and/or Aussie market.
I just have to drink a few beers to get enough courage to short at these levels... LOL
...for the very short term (like tomorrow's trading in the US), it is most likely that the Dow will briefly test ~8000 and the SP 500 ~816 (sort of a shake out) before a mini-rally starts again; -a good shorting opportunity accumulating at ~8400, ~8700 and possibly ~9000 (hopefully, but very much doubt the 9000 level)-
...it is most unlikely that the Dow and the SP 500 will immediately test the 20th. November low, more likely is, the 20th November test and if successful, the subsequent rally to Dow ~10000 and SP 500 ~1100 will coincide with the change in the US Government next week;
...after that, the bears will take charge once more or the bears will continue the party, if the 20th November test fails;
Kind Regards
Last edited by ananda77; 16-01-2009 at 07:27 AM.
Reason: addition
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16-01-2009, 10:28 AM
#130
The Selling pressure could not crack that 8000 resistance line but gave it a good test (intraday 7997) before bouncing back to end the day fractionally higher at 8212 (+12).
Todays action may have settled a few nerves.
A wee rally from here ? as Ananda suggests....or a retest
Last edited by Hoop; 16-01-2009 at 10:30 AM.
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