Dow

[Hoop]

Iraq's oil exports raise in December ... reluctant to post this on any other thread as the radicals will spin any such thinking processes into oblivian with their dogma. .... My view? ... If oil supply stays plentiful and constant ... Wayhey!

Just another addition to my above post.
Art Hogan (Jeffries & Company chief Market Strategist) interview this morning The last 30 seconds of Audio he reckons that the Energy price drop is net positive to Companies and this has not yet been realised by investors and so it has not yet been factored into the Equity Markets.

http://www.marketwatch.com/tvradio/player.asp?guid={b182634f-5f1c-4a7c-b088-a89ebbc61ccb} (audio link approx 4 mins)

[ananda77]

SPX 500 consolidation below 858 = peak 16-01-2009; ...preparing for the break-out...

...accumulated bank charge offs for 2009 estimated of $1 trillion vs. $1.5 trillion in Tier 1 Risk Based Capital at all US banks today
...2/3 to 3/4 of that loss number comes from the top 4 - Citigroup, Bank of America, JPMorganChase and Wells Fargo
http://us1.institutionalriskanalytic...ry.asp?tag=337

...restructuring, receivership and a new start???

...expecting -AT LEAST- revisit of 20th November Low if a banking solution appears in the near future

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

...expecting -AT LEAST- revisit of 20th November Low in the near future

...the timing of this rally sucks without having tested the 20th November Low first

Kind Regards

[Hoop]

...expecting -AT LEAST- revisit of 20th November Low in the near future

...the timing of this rally sucks without having tested the 20th November Low first

Kind Regards

It seems the (out of favour by some investors) DOW obeyed the "rules"

Referring to my chart posted earlier the DOW had broken through the two of the 3 orange supports (8400 , 8150) but the selling pressure was not strong enough to break through the 3rd support so it bounced back up from that 3rd orange support (8000) to now test the 8400 orange line which is now a resistance line). It failed to break that 8400 line today......maybe tomorrow?

If the DOW fails to break through 8400 resistance ...maybe Ananda may see her S&P 500 low retested....who knows. At the moment the DOW is caught within this cluster 8000 8150 8400 bands with not enough pressure to break free out of this cluster....a bit like being caught in a spider's web, much effort is needed to break free.

$US40billion of available money is now unavailable being sucked out by the treasury bond placement just recently...this should reduce buying pressure and should be a -ve factor to the Equity market

Remember the Equity market is driven by the availability of money and the psyche of those Equity Investors with that money..the market is not driven by the economy but by those investors.

Edit: - figures such as 8000 are rounded not exact so treat as a band not an exact thin line.

[ananda77]

It seems the (out of favour by some investors) DOW obeyed the "rules"

Referring to my chart posted earlier the DOW had broken through the two of the 3 orange supports (8400 , 8150) but the selling pressure was not strong enough to break through the 3rd support so it bounced back up from that 3rd orange support (8000) to now test the 8400 orange line which is now a resistance line). It failed to break that 8400 line today......maybe tomorrow?

...yes we were warned and the rally did not come as a surprise

...interesting though, the SPX 500 closed at !!874!! 1 POINT BELOW the 50% January retrace at 875 (January sell-off from 944 to 804)

...close by = 888 the December SPX 500 Open (monthly)

...the 50% January Dow retrace = 8500

...failure below this ceiling will get us closer to the 20th November test

bottom line for me:

...unless the Fed and the Government stop bank bail-outs, 'bad banks', or guaranteeing the bank's toxic assets which sucks the lifeblood out of the world economy, any rally is most likely to be corrective...

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

...complete lack of follow through action to break above SPX 500 Wednesday High 878, slicing through support 858, 851 with a Close 845

...most likely, any further market action to the upside capped by 878 or to be more positive 888

...feels a lot more like test of the 20th November Low coming up in the near future;

Trading Strategy: BEARISH -short to medium-
-slightly short hedged >816 -to short hedged + short hedged accumulating ~858 (+)
-accumulate stocks -medium to long term- (that is, if you still have FAITH in the system)

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

LOL ...My faith is being sorely tested but I continue have some ... Thanks a77 et al.

...isn't it funny, how THE ELITE cries out for HELP (see Attachment) while they, w/o remorse, suck the life blood out of the world economy -TRICKLE DOWN AT ITS BEST-

BEEP BEEP!
http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Feature...+Beep+Beep.htm

...since:

It would take only $1 trillion or so – or simply to let "the market" work its magic in the context of renewed debtor-oriented bankruptcy laws – to cure the debt problem. But that obviously is not what the government aims to solve at all. It simply wants to make creditors whole – creditors who are, after all, the largest political campaign contributors and lobbyists these days.

Obama’s New Bank Giveaway
Is this administration’s bank policy Bush-3 – or Clinton-5 or Reagan 8?
by Michael Hudson
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.p...t=va&aid=12092

Kind Regards

[Hoop]

LOL ... My faith is being sorely tested but I continue have some ... Thanks a77 et al.

Belg, hang in there discipline wise.

Remember the old saying "The bear market doesn't scare you out, it wears you out."

[Mick100]

Testing

[ananda77]

Belg, hang in there discipline wise.

Remember the old saying "The bear market doesn't scare you out, it wears you out."

-no market low/market high is solid enough long term without having been challenged-

...it should be fairly clear by now that, testing the 21 November '08 Low will most likely coincide with the announcement of a comprehensive bank rescue plan within the next couple of weeks;

...on a psychological level, institutions in 'stealth equity accumulation' since October 2008, will want to approach the test from a base of strength in order to avoid failure and miss the chance to drive the market to resistance (-sure Hoop will have the exact data available-) by the end of the first 6 months of 2009;
this would provide the foundation for further market upside towards the end of 2009 and beyond;

...however, in case of a continuous worsening flow of economic data = status quo continues, at best, the market will remain in a trading range for some extended period of time or will seek a new low by middle of 2009;

...still... something's missing... the utter desperation of a TRUE BEAR MARKET LOW

Kind Regards