Dow

[graeme50]

I have done very well on the US market during the crash and right through to today. I see a huge upside there ON CERTAIN STOCKS. I have a US broking account as well as a NEW Broking account. I don't play the New Zealand market because there are better opportunities in US. The key is to follow the Obama policies.

[ananda77]

Belgarion:

...thanks for your kind words

...personally started accumulating various investments (equities and bonds mostly) ON 10th October 2008 and apart from tapping into credit lines, am fully invested now and did NOT sell ONE share I owned previous to the Crash (probably a bit stubborn this);

...throughout history, people DID loose all of their wealth because of a total break down of established social, economical, and political structures on a national as well as global level;

!!who knows, there are enough extreme tendencies within our global system to spark such a break down!!

...but who cares, owing a roof over ones head with a plot to grow ones own food guarantees survival (during the worst times) and some gold (for a new start up after) is all what is needed; -owing anything else does not make much sense- WHY FEAR???

...during any other periods, serious disruptions in the established fabric of life have proofed to be temporary and anyone panicking, inevitable transferred wealth to (insert the appropriate here .........);

US set for ‘big bang’ financial clean-up
ByKrishna Guha in Washington
Published: January 30 2009 23:31
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/15f37800-e...0779fd2ac.html

Kind Regards

[Dr_Who]

Looks like the Dow can again test the 8k support.

There is a big downside risk it will go below 8k.

Anyone going short?

[AMR]

Is tonight the night it goes through?

Looks a bit like a descending triangle breakout to the downside if it does.

[ananda77]

...attempts to break the SPX500 support at 804 stopped at 809 and the SPX 500 closed almost unchanged at 825

...although the Dow had a red day and intra-day traded down to below support at 7909, the index still Closed above 7909 at 7937

...there remains a bit of strenghth around these levels and the market could well go for another mini rally towards the latest cap on the SPX 500 = 844/851 before taking the 804 out to test the 21 November Low of 741

...interesting: the Institutional Index of Core Holdings is testing the 2002 long term support, while at the same time, institutions increased their distribution of Core holdings since last week Thursday;
market liquidity in negative contraction space

Trading Strategy: BEARISH -short to medium-
-slightly short hedged >816 -to short hedged + short hedged accumulating ~858 (+)
-accumulate stocks -medium to long term- (that is, if you still have FAITH in the system)

Kind Regards

[patsy]

Belg & a77

By reading your Dow posts, I gather you'll surely enjoy the podcasts from here:

www.financialsense.com

There are four podcasts released every Saturday, with the last two under the title "Big Picture." Check them out.

[fungus pudding]

Home sales in the US beginning to increase in Dec/Jan ... No news yet whether prices are stabilising ... fingers crossed ... a bottom in the USD house market would certainly be positive for stocks.

Sure would - but it aint the bottom of the housing market yet. Not by a long way (timewise).

[Dr_Who]

Sure would - but it aint the bottom of the housing market yet. Not by a long way (timewise).

I agree with respect to the US. It maybe a dead cat bounce. There will be alot of pain to come out of the US market before any real gains. All the figures coming out of Asia and Europe are still horrible and the US is no different.

[patsy]

Worth reading:

Bernanke and Obama's Spending Schemes Could Ruin U.S. Economy

http://tinyurl.com/bxwbc2

[ananda77]

...no point going on about numbers as the markets are at a very critical point, under real stress...

...the support/resistance of the 'Institutional Index of Core Holding' is converging; the direction of the break-out highly dependent on Tarp 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12,13,14... outcome and a comprehensive banking solution; unfortunately, a real banking solution may be nearly impossible because politically unsupported, consequently, we may see more of solutions like:

8.5 trillion Try = Near Zero result

Bad Banks, Insurance Wraps and Other Fanciful Notions

...As with the muddled thinking on asset valuations we heard last year from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, this new plan supposes that there is a "happy medium," some compromise that awaits taxpayers in the US (and the UK too) in terms of buying bad assets from already insolvent banks without requiring the purifying step of insolvency and restructuring.

Indeed everyone from our usually sagacious friends at BreakingViews to the Financial Times to US Economic lider maximo, Larry Summers, seem to be coming under the nonsensical notion that there is some alternative to restructuring for the large money center banks in the US and Europe. The editors of the FT in particular seem to forget that their continued existence as a business comes from a healthy, private financial market, not the politically-conflicted statist paradise envisioned by Geithner, Bernanke and their masters at Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS).
http://us1.institutionalriskanalytic...ry.asp?tag=338

Trading Strategy: BEARISH -short to medium-
-slightly short hedged >816 -to short hedged + short hedged accumulating ~858 (+)
-accumulate stocks -medium to long term-

Kind Regards

...looks like the rally failed below SPX500 853/855 and a test of 804 in the process; a Close below SPX500 804 = test of 21 November Low

Kind Regards