Dow

[ananda77]

Not aware of any macro news that could come out to protect that SP500 mark. We're going through it this week ... The question becomes - how far? - Gut says - not much. If it's large then opportunities will surface.

...interesting that since the top in 2007, markets have been falling steadily despite all the efforts of governments and Central banks to turn the deflationary tide. That points to the fact that governments and CB's have NO POWER at all to do anything about it despite the constant BLA-BLA Artist Brainwash of the system press to the contrary

...and the latest fall in the markets lead by the fall of banking shares points again to the fact that market wants the nationalization of insolvent to the core banks despite the CROOKS' view that the banks should stay private and should be helped out endlessly by the tax payer

...SO FAR THE MARKET WINS AND MOST LIKELY WILL CONTINUE TO WIN

Favoring nationalization:

Alan Greenspan
Gordon Brown, UK PM
Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd
Senator Chuck Schumer
Sen. Lindsey Graham
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi
Republicans (some)
Joseph Stiglitz
Paul Krugman
Alan S. Blinder, Princeton
Nassim Taleb
Nouriel Roubini
Greg Mankiw
J. Bradford DeLong
Elizabeth Warren, TARP Oversight Panel
Dennis Gartman
Chris Whalen
Josh Rosner
Jeff Matthews
John Mauldin
Jack McHugh
Bill King
Matthew Richardson
Dylan Ratigan (CNBC, Daily Beast)
Jesse Eisinger, Conde Nast Portfolio
Martin Wolf, FT
Aaron Task (Yahoo Tech Ticker)
Paul Kedrosky (Infectious Greed, CNBC)
Nicholas Kristof (New York Times)
Mark Gongloff (WSJ)
Richard Parker (Newsweek)
Michael Hirsh (Newsweek)
David Reilly (Bloomberg)
Paul Vigna (Dow Jones)
Henry Blodget (Silicon Alley)
Willem Buiter (FT)
Adam Posen (Peterson Institute for International Economics)
Jeff Macke
Todd Harrison
Calculated Risk (Preprivatize the Banks)

Mark Thoma (Economistsview)
Karl Denninger
naked capitalism
Eddy Elfenbein (Crossing Wall Street)
Bronte Capital
Aaron Krowne Mortgage Lender Implode-O-Meter
Prieur du Plessis (investmentpostcards)
Roger Ehrenberg, Information Arbitrage
Felix Salmon
Interfluidity (Nationalize Like Real Capitalists)
Urban Digs

opposed to nationalization:

Ben Bernanke
President Obama
Tim Geithner
Lawrence H. Summers
Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank
Republican Senator Jon Kyl
George Soros
Meredith Whitney, Oppenheimer
Deroy Murdock (NRO)
Larry Kudlow
James Cramer
Hale Stewart
Tyler Cowen
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/

...if the bank insolvency problem and the CDS issues remain unresolved, the market will continue to provide the RIGHT ANSWERS...(see attachment)
http://www.atlanticadvisors.com/uplo...ree-fallin.pdf

Kind Regards

[lakedaemonian]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TEzmU7YSXJs

Soundtrack for a meltdown

will be playing in my iPod through 2010, possibly 2011-2012......it will really complement the mass civil disturbances sure to cascade from nation to nation in the next few years.

----------------------

dead canaries are littering the ground everwhere

[patsy]

For those who follow the Dow Theory, Friday's close was of particular significance. The Dow has finally given a confirmation signal; both the Dow Industrial and Dow Transportation have simultaneously broken lows, which means that the major second down leg is coming.

Up until Friday, Dow Theorists were still hanging on bullish hopes - not from today on.

[trader10]

A must to watch :

Inside the Meltdown.... 56 minutes...


http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/meltdown/view/


cheers

[ananda77]

For those who follow the Dow Theory, Friday's close was of particular significance. The Dow has finally given a confirmation signal; both the Dow Industrial and Dow Transportation have simultaneously broken lows, which means that the major second down leg is coming.

Up until Friday, Dow Theorists were still hanging on bullish hopes - not from today on.

...but was not confirmed by the Nasdaq nor the SPX 500 and trading distorted by option expiration; very critical junction this week;

-this morning:

-Dow testing support *7198 possible extension south to *7000
-SPX 500 testing *750 possible extension south to *741/*725

...if this support does not hold, market goes lower

Trading Strategy: met target on SPX 500 and on the sideline

Kind Regards

[Dr_Who]

Dow down again this morning.

This is getting very ugly. I cant see any light at the end of this tunnel.

Doc is very bearish.

[Stranger_Danger]

12 year lows, clear tone of capitulation. I'm on the cusp of being extremely bullish.

75%-80% cash, no debts of any sort and ready to go. Very scary environment though, confidence shot to bits and very hard to go against the herd.

However, as the currently deeply unpopular Mr Buffett says, you pay a very high price for a cheery consensus. We had an incredibly cheery consensus in 2006/2007 and, boy, has the price turned out high.

What about now, though?

[AMR]

12 year lows, clear tone of capitulation. I'm on the cusp of being extremely bullish.

75%-80% cash, no debts of any sort and ready to go. Very scary environment though, confidence shot to bits and very hard to go against the herd.

However, as the currently deeply unpopular Mr Buffett says, you pay a very high price for a cheery consensus. We had an incredibly cheery consensus in 2006/2007 and, boy, has the price turned out high.

What about now, though?

Rob from Quantifiable edges also feels that way...

CBI Hits 7 For 1st Time Since November


I haven’t mentioned the Capitualtive Breadth Indicator (CBI) for a while. For those unfamiliar it is a proprietary method of measuring the amount of capitulation evident in the market. You may read the intro post here or the entire series here. Since the November lows it has been pretty much dormant except for a quick blip in January. It began to move up last week and at Friday’s close it hit 7. Long-time readers will recall that this is a level where I feel a decent bullish edge exists. Below is a chart of the CBI from the Quantifiable Edges members section.

(click to enlarge)




In the past I’ve demonstrated that it can be used as a market timing tool for swing trades. One “system” I’ve shown here on the blog is to purchase the S&P 500 when the CBI hits a certain level (7 being one of them) and then sell the S&P when it returns back to 3 or below.

Below is an updated performance report of the above “system” covering 1995-present.






I'll keep readers informed of significant changes in the CBI over the next several days until it returns to neutral.

[shasta]

12 year lows, clear tone of capitulation. I'm on the cusp of being extremely bullish.

75%-80% cash, no debts of any sort and ready to go. Very scary environment though, confidence shot to bits and very hard to go against the herd.

However, as the currently deeply unpopular Mr Buffett says, you pay a very high price for a cheery consensus. We had an incredibly cheery consensus in 2006/2007 and, boy, has the price turned out high.

What about now, though?

Yup the final capitulation is what i'm waiting for too, as most people won't recognise the start of the new bull market, & whilst scared & out of the market will miss much of the early gains...

When everyone is bearish time to start buying "selective stocks"

[winner69]

Rob from Quantifiable edges also feels that way...

CBI Hits 7 For 1st Time Since November


I haven’t mentioned the Capitualtive Breadth Indicator (CBI) for a while. For those unfamiliar it is a proprietary method of measuring the amount of capitulation evident in the market. You may read the intro post here or the entire series here. Since the November lows it has been pretty much dormant except for a quick blip in January. It began to move up last week and at Friday’s close it hit 7. Long-time readers will recall that this is a level where I feel a decent bullish edge exists. Below is a chart of the CBI from the Quantifiable Edges members section.

(click to enlarge)




In the past I’ve demonstrated that it can be used as a market timing tool for swing trades. One “system” I’ve shown here on the blog is to purchase the S&P 500 when the CBI hits a certain level (7 being one of them) and then sell the S&P when it returns back to 3 or below.

Below is an updated performance report of the above “system” covering 1995-present.






I'll keep readers informed of significant changes in the CBI over the next several days until it returns to neutral.

This joker has a different view .... says 'In 1931, after the Dow broke below the 1930 lows, it was virtually non-stop to the bottom apart from minor upward jerks every six months.' ... and that is where we are now

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Market-$pd20090224-PJV6S?OpenDocument&src=sph