Dow

[Dr_Who]

This is a dead cat bounce on the Dow today.

The market is moving on Bernanke's words. Fundamentals have not changed. Banks are still rotten to the core.

[ananda77]

This is a dead cat bounce on the Dow today.

The market is moving on Bernanke's words. Fundamentals have not changed. Banks are still rotten to the core.

...in terms of risk, it is a prudent strategy to judge wether or not the markets have bottomed by waiting, how far this rebound will take the market

...for the SPX 500, if 815 will be taken out, we would have to assume a solid bottom is in place

...otherwise it is just a 50:50 gamble...

Kind Regards

[trendy]

This is a dead cat bounce on the Dow today.

The market is moving on Bernanke's words. Fundamentals have not changed. Banks are still rotten to the core.

Couldn't agree more. Trend is still downwards. Fundamentals are abysmal with consumer sales still heading down.

[trendy]

Too little too late.

Just to confirm how fast global trade and major economies are collapsing read this. Japan's exports have almost halved in January. These are great depression grade statistics!

If they aren't exporting we aren't importing, no shipping required impacts ports, trains, trucking, no retail sales....

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?...WEqw&refer=home

Japan Exports Plummet 45.7%, Deficit Widens to Record (Update1)

By Jason Clenfield

Feb. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s exports plunged 45.7 percent in January, resulting in a record trade deficit, as recessions in the U.S. and Europe smothered demand for the country’s cars and electronics.

The shortfall widened to 952.6 billion yen ($9.9 billion), the sharpest decline since 1980, the earliest year for which there is comparable data, the Finance Ministry said today in Tokyo. The January drop in overseas shipments eclipsed a record 35 percent decline set the previous month.

Gross domestic product shrank at an annual 12.7 percent pace last quarter, the most since the 1974 oil shock, and economists predict the slump will drag into this quarter. Toyota Motor Corp., Sony Corp. and Hitachi Ltd. -- all of which forecast losses -- are firing thousands of workers, heightening the risk the recession will deepen.

“The drop in exports is unbelievably bad,” said Yasuhide Yajima, a senior economist at NLI Research Institute in Tokyo. “The pressure on companies to cut jobs and investment is rising and that will make the recession deep and protracted.”

The yen traded at 96.56 per dollar as of 9:01 a.m. in Tokyo from 96.72 before the report was published. The decline in exports was in line with economists’ predictions.

Japan’s economy, the world’s second largest, may shrink a record 4 percent in the year starting April 1, faster than this year’s projected decline of 2.9 percent, according to the median estimate of 15 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The worst contraction to date was fiscal 1998’s 1.5 percent drop.

Record Drops

Shipments to the U.S. and Europe dropped by records. Exports to the U.S. tumbled 52.9 percent from year earlier, and shipments to Europe fell 47.4 percent, the ministry said.

The collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. triggered a credit crisis that erased $18 trillion from global equity markets, hobbled U.S. consumers and paralyzed world trade. The meltdown also spurred a 23 percent surge in the yen against the dollar since September, eroding earnings for Japanese exporters already struggling with weak demand.

“If the yen stays at this strong level, it’s likely the economic recession” will continue, Honda Motor Co. President Takeo Fukui said last week. Every one yen gain against the dollar cuts the automaker’s operating profit by about 18 billion yen ($190 million), according to the company.

Still, currency gains have eased recently as the outlook for Japan’s economy deteriorates. The yen has retreated 5.4 percent against the dollar in February, its worst one-month performance in almost five years. Reports showing an unprecedented 9.6 percent decline in factoryproduction and the biggest jump in the unemployment rate in 41 years have convinced some investors Japan is no longer a safe haven.

‘Deep Trouble’

“People are coming to realize that Japan is in deep trouble,” said Hiroshi Shiraishi, an economist at BNP Paribas Securities Japan Ltd. in Tokyo. “Considering what’s happening on the export side, and the implications that has for the domestic economy, the yen is clearly not a buy.”

Toyota, which is forecasting its first operating loss in seven decades, will halve production in the current quarter versus the same period last year as demand for cars in the U.S. plunges. U.S. auto sales fell 37 percent in January.

The Bank of Japan last week said it will buy corporate bonds for the first time, widening its asset-purchase program to prevent a shortage of credit from deepening the recession. Governor Masaaki Shirakawa and his colleagues lowered the bank’s overnight lending rate to 0.1 percent in December.

The government has been unable to pass a stimulus package that could help encourage domestic spending in the absence of export demand. Prime Minister Taro Aso is struggling to get approval from the opposition-led upper house to spend 10 trillion yen ($111 billion) to aid companies and households, whose sentiment is near a record low.

[peat]

At the end of trading on Monday, Feb. 23, 2009, Robert Prechter closed the most successful trading recommendation of his 30-year career. His advice to "cover" the position came near the end of the trading day, when subscribers received the February 2009 issue of his Elliott Wave Theorist. This closed a “fully leveraged short position” he recommended to Theorist subscribers on July 17, 2007, when the S&P was at 1550. At the time of publication on Monday, Feb. 23, the S&P was trading below 750

[ananda77]

At the end of trading on Monday, Feb. 23, 2009, Robert Prechter closed the most successful trading recommendation of his 30-year career. His advice to "cover" the position came near the end of the trading day, when subscribers received the February 2009 issue of his Elliott Wave Theorist. This closed a “fully leveraged short position” he recommended to Theorist subscribers on July 17, 2007, when the S&P was at 1550. At the time of publication on Monday, Feb. 23, the S&P was trading below 750

...yes, but the reason is NOT, Prechter expects a bull market!!!!!

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

SP500 holding its own ... MS beating the market by a wide margin. Go MS.

...SPX500 most likely revisiting November Low, -possibly- sliding further to low *700; if *700 breaks, *640 next likely stop

...personal take is the *640 mark a bit far out in current market with quite a bullish build up happening; expecting a rally to SPX500 *1000/1100 before Bears take charge again

Trading Strategy: intraday short trades ONLY to *744 then sideline

Kind Regards

[trendy]

Dow going to 4000 to 5000 range by year end. Big D is coming.

[ollie]

Hey trendy, thats a big call, i'll keep my eye on your prediction.

[winner69]

Hey trendy, thats a big call, i'll keep my eye on your prediction.

S&P500 earnings for 2009 (updated as results come through) are less than $28 which puts the S&P500 on a PE of 27.

Earnings still under pressure as the recession starts to bite. Even if earnings hold up and the S&P500 falls to its long term average of 15 than a S&P500 at 450 is not out of the question ...say 500 and thats 33% from today ... apply that to the DOW and you get Trendy's 5000 odd ... spooky eh