Dow

[ananda77]

the put to call ratio at the end of monday suggested tuesdays rally.

if this is subwave 4 the spx shouldnt go above 800 and a rally to like 820 would clean out most shorts. some new traders got too bearish over the last two weeks and gave some money to the pros. hope this isnt the bottom and so i miss the multi month rally i am thinking about

...yes, 725 seems too low now and SPX500 could trade up to close to *800; but *640 still in the cards

Kind Regards

[dumbass]

it feels like sentiment is reaching an extreme which always raises the possibilty that some kind of bottom is just around the corner.
6500 has been my very long term target and now were just about there.The best fit elliot count suggests we are currently in a fifth wave, with potential for indicator divergence also price close to lower trendline.
looking at transport index it has not yet taken out bull market lows, which may be a bullish divegence from the dow index.
i think we will get clarification soon but cautiously optimistic for the trade of 2009 ,
a sharp bear market rally running many months and there normally pretty violent upswings.

well it is showing some very positive signs that bottom is in for the A wave.
price has rallied in a very impulsive manner , markedly different to previous rally attempts.
the crowd seems very sceptical which again suggests B wave rally underway.
very overbought and therefore expecting a temporary pull back.

[dumbass]

intial target reached and have closed long position , a cautious move as i am still bullish but daily printed a shooting star and not too far away from an unconfirmed down trend line.
i am labelling this move wave 1 and expecting a retracement from here but expecting 6469 to hold , in fact i think it will be a shallow retracement.
waiting for another long entry.

[frostyboy]

The subwave 4 could have ended already
My bearish ideas

VIX has formed a inverse head and shoulders over the last week. i now doubt the VIX will see above 60 if we have a subwave 5 which i doubt the spx will go below 600

On monday selling was a little fierce in the last few hours GS was a leader. SPX Futures currently up 1% from the close could be a bear flag.

There is a daily topping candle on the SPX todays volume was higher than the previous 3 days

at the moment im keeping my powder dry

[AMR]

Frosty boy, patterns in VIX?? Isn't it a measure of volatility and as such, not really a market? Please enlighten me...

[dumbass]

The subwave 4 could have ended already

i got to say frosty it didnt look like a fourth wave, looked impulsive to me.

[ananda77]

...most likely a retest of SPX500 *775 (minimum), possibly as high as *790+ developing;

if test fails, SPX500 *640 (61.8% retracement of the 1973-2007 rally) or *606 (Jul 1996 low) most likely, before a multi-month sucker's rally can develop;

...fundamentally however, long term !!!BE AWARE!!! it is Bernanke and CO Ltd. at work again and these guys are well known for a shoddy finish; enjoy the ride but get off, when things are starting to get complacent

Trading Strategy: safest = sideline or SPX500 short *791 to hedge equity exposure

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

...after today's SPX500 close it is possible, decline starting October 2007 bottomed on 6th. March 2009;

...however, Friday is quadruble option expiry and Equinox, volatility likely to be very high; and there are some very real counter trend forces still playing in the market, which, if they continue, will jeopardize the current rally;

Kind Regards

[Hoop]

The old bottom (7500) which is now a resistence level has been respected..

....hmmmm interesting...sort of dampens this latest media hype of a quick large bearmarket rally

[Dr_Who]

Dead "MEOW" bounce!