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Thread: Dow

  1. #31
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
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    ...at this point in time it's prudent to be out of the market unless you feel the need for some cardiac work-out; in that case a bit of day-trading will do...the easier way of course is to be invested precious...

    ...in case the Fedheads will come up with more fairy tale stuff about their ability to control/solve the crisis, look for a spike down in US markets on fairy tale announcements -the down spike in the US markets commonly in tune with the VIX spiking up to 40+- before going into the market intermediate

    ...medium to long, it's a complete "on the brink" situation with huge up-or down side...and before the direction becomes clear (no hurry in the meantime), it's just plain suicidal to think one way or the other as a given; however,

    !!!!BE WARNED!!!! THE ODDS (GENERAL EXPECTATIONS) ARE CRASH and a fairly good indication of it happening for sure, is the NASDAQ100 falling through 1724 confirmed (oil, oil, oil)

    Kind Regards

  2. #32
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    We have a full fledged panic starting here. They are going to ban naked short-selling, which by the way is already illegal but never enforced.....due to the fox guading the hen house...GS..

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...m2E&refer=home

    They are also going to print a few more hundred billions dollars and give those to use again for more stimulas.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...QA0&refer=home

    Are Weighing More Tax Rebates, Pelosi Says (Update1)

    By Laura Litvan

    July 15 (Bloomberg) -- House Democrats are weighing plans for another round of tax rebates as part of a legislative package to boost the economy this fall, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said.

    ``We will be proceeding with another stimulus package, and we once again hope we will work in a bipartisan way,'' she said after House Democratic leaders met with a group of economists to discuss the spreading housing crisis and rising energy prices.

    Pelosi and other House Democrats said a second stimulus package would probably include more spending for roads and other infrastructure, expanded unemployment benefits, home-heating assistance for low-income families and some aid for states struggling with budget deficits.

    Plans for the stimulus legislation are taking shape as Democrats are also racing to approve the Bush administration's proposed rescue plan for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by early next week.

    ``This is a serious situation,'' said former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, who attended the meeting with Democrats. ``We are in much more danger of responding inefficiently than in responding excessively.''

    In February, Congress sent Bush a $168 billion economic stimulus measure that included tax rebates to 111 million households beginning in May. Rebate checks in the legislation were as high as $600 for individuals.

    Pelosi said Democrats will need to work with President George W. Bush to determine the timing of a second stimulus package. Bush said today he would prefer to wait to see how the earlier rebates affect the economy.

    `Rolling Financial Crises'

    ``We're always open minded to things, but we'll see how this one works,'' he said.

    Alan Blinder, a former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve and a Princeton University economist, said the U.S. is experiencing a series of ``rolling financial crises'' and that the impact of the earlier round of tax rebates has been ``swallowed up'' by rising energy prices.

    ``The U.S. economy is in a recession that is probably getting worse,'' said Alan Sinai, chief global economist at Decision Economics Inc., who, like Blinder, attended the meeting with Democrats.
    Last edited by trendy; 16-07-2008 at 08:31 AM.
    The trend is your friend.

  3. #33
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    I've been clearly in the "doom and gloom" camp for approximately a year now based on my post history, and while I prefer to NOT fan the flames further, and continue to hope the bottom isn't as far down as I think it may wind up, there are a few things to consider going forward:

    *Off Balance sheet antics have NOT yet been fully disclosed by many of the remaining big players...HOW can anyone make an investment based on such stupidity? "Here's our assets, here's our liabilities, and we have a big, big secret behind door number 3......how many shares do you want?"

    *Pension Funds with hundreds of billions of risky market exposure, chasing the extra return like NZ Mom & Dad going after the extra 0.5% with failed finance company debentures, with expectations of far above average returns going forward to pay for excessive pension entitlements, are at risk of detonating like the death star and taking many, many American retirees with them.....it could make the 24 finance companies in 24 months(approximate) here in NZ looks like sunshine and rainbows.

    *Derivatives........their growth seems almost parabolic.......I understand basic derivatives and their very useful hedging roles in insurance and business......but complex derivatives? I have absolutely no idea.....and I doubt more than a few do......Warren Buffett called them Weapons of Mass Destruction for a reason....it reminds me of those conversations everyone has in life where a complex topic is being covered that is FAR over the heads of the audience, but everyone is too afraid to say, "I don't understand because I'm afraid I'll look stupid." I'm stupid and many derivatives scare me enough to want to buy a bunker and some guns.

    I think of them as Neutron Derivatives........they will kill off everything....but leave a lot of empty building ni their wake.

  4. #34
    SRV is a God STRAT's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by malcolm View Post
    looking at many major company results in dow and s@p500 has been surprising -positive including some banks- worst to come from the SKELETON CUPBOARD-- or all over????
    Starting to look like a bounce eh?

    Im holding my breath but not all that confident

    Phaedrus, would love some thoughts from you.

    The next week will be interesting eh fellas?



    and ladies ( sorry Liz :o)
    Last edited by STRAT; 22-07-2008 at 10:22 AM. Reason: sexist post

  5. #35
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    Yeah I was eyeing up that up movement and asking myself are we seeing an early conception of the next bear market rally...

    ...you know the old saying the early bird catches the worm....and all that

    However after watcing CNBC this morning I will reserve my judgement...

    ....WOW ...it has turned totally ulgy in the NASDAQ after hours trading currently down 2.46% Apple down 11% on a not that bad profit report. Texas instruments taking a hiding as well (-11%). Elsewhere away from the NASDAQ, The after hours in the financials American Express is being whipped (-11%).Freddie Mac (-3.6%)
    Can view the list here

    Odds on, tommorrow may not be a good day for Uncle Sam.

  6. #36
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    I reckon the Dow still has quite a lot more to lose. At a general level, another 12 months of down and another 3000 points knocked off seems quite conceivable.

  7. #37
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    FTSE down also 1.41% in early trading. Time for the next round with that big Bear?

  8. #38
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    Dow saved by oil. Gold down a little too. It will be interesting to see how the ASX fairs today then.

  9. #39
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    Ouch, gold and oil hits again - wall street balances out, flat. Sucker punch coming for DOW? DOW now at 11,600; more than a 600 pt rise from recent low...

  10. #40
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    hitting a key level on dow me thinks time for a down day or two before rally resumes

  11. #41
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    Good call. If the Dow closes over 2% (down) the movement might gain legs and roll on tomorrow - if worry turns to fear. Malcolm's negative earnings results are in. The question and I guess the obvious driver for any "next Dow sell-off" will be how large/un-expected are such down grades.

  12. #42
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    2.2%, no wait 2.36% down now. The Close I guess is however what is important.

  13. #43
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    DOW update. Last few days short squeeze over. Trend is now back down. The SEC naked short sell rules are now baked into the market. Worse to come as the foreclosure tsunami is 100ft high and 1/2 mile from shore......we won't be able to outrun this monster wave. Many will drown.
    The trend is your friend.

  14. #44
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    i would tend to disagree

    this rally has not run high enough to generate the bullish sentiment needed for

    the next leg lower

    last nights drop into a pivot support should allow rally to get back on track

    im picking early august before market turns for a run to new lows

  15. #45
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    Hey DA,

    could be right - looks wave 4-ish at a glance, but NAB might have put the cat amongst the pigeons with their 90% writedown of US CDO portfolio...

    I think this guy has hit the button:

    The National Australia Bank's decision to write off 90 per cent of its US conduit loans will have dramatic repercussions around the world. Wall Street will be deeply shocked when they understand the repercussions of what NAB has done. It is clear global banks have nowhere near provided for their exposures to US housing loans which in the words of John Stewart are experiencing a “meltdown”.

    We are now way beyond sub-prime. NAB says that it is suffering a 55 per cent loss on American housing loans – an event that has never happened in the history of a developed country in recent memory. This is an unprecedented event and means that the cost of bailing out the US financial system is now far beyond the highest estimates. A US recession is now locked in, but more alarmingly, 55 per cent loan losses point to the possibility of a depression.

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/...cument&src=sph


    55% is ballpark - the secondary market here is trading at abt 65 cents in the dollar


    Sorry to bring fundamentals into the frame
    Last edited by Xerof; 25-07-2008 at 03:57 PM.

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