Dow

[ananda77]

...SPX 500 closed comfortably above *916/*917 today and the positive tone carries the potential to test *930/*956

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

...again, the market is at a critical juncture:

...a SPX 500 close above *917 would be indicative of a short term Low
...an immediate break and Close below *879/*880 would negate any bouncing potential
...a Head & Shoulder Topping Pattern may be developing (see attachment)

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

...as a trading strategy, it may be a good idea to stay out of this fractured market until the intermarket divergence between the Dow and the Nasdaq/SPX 500 are resolved as there is as much bearish as bullish potential at present; the key will be the Dow direction early next week; the Dow *8490 level needs to fall convincingly to resolve the divergence;

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

[winner69]

Hoop - this on the Golden Cross from Hussman
http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc090629.htm

Similarly, we are skeptical about things that cross our desks urging us to forget the economy's debt fundamentals and break into a chorus of Zippidee-Doo-Dah. Last week, for example, I was treated to a report on the so-called “Golden Cross” – the event where the 50-day moving average of the S&P 500 crosses above the 200-day moving average. Next to a carefully compiled set of dates were the purported returns of the S&P 500 over the following 1, 3, and 12 months. As one moves down the report, the analyst either figured that investors would no longer pay attention or forgot how to operate a calculator, so one-year gains of 100%, 200% and more were piled into the average (the figures were about 10 times the true returns). Suffice it to say that the true history of the Golden Cross is bronze at best, with actual 1, 3 and 12 month total returns in the S&P 500 (since 1940) coming in at 1%, 3% and 14% on average. Even those figures, however, benefit from three particular instances where the S&P 500 gained over 40% over the following year – those instances were 1942, 1953, and 1982 – each which began at multiples of just 7-8 times normalized earnings (not the current multiple of nearly double that). Excluding those three instances, the subsequent returns from the Golden Cross are no better than throwing dice.

In short, beware of analysts bearing indicators that all is suddenly well, and check their facts.

[ananda77]

...SPX 500 challenging very critical *927 after *917 intraday defended:

-decisive break and Close above *927 > positive environment to challenge *956 (+)
-Failure at this point > imminent retrace to *879 at a minimum likely

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

[Phaedrus]

Here is a link to download a pdf copy of a recent Merrill Lynch research report on S&P500 golden crosses.
Go to http://www.tradersnarrative.com/free-trading-resources/
Select "Reports and Articles"
Then "Golden Cross.pdf"

This report was commissioned by Bank of America/Merryl Lynch and shows that when associated with recessions, the average 12-month return after a Golden Cross is 19.2% vs the 7.1% average 12-month return for the index.

[winner69]

Here is a link to download a pdf copy of a recent Merrill Lynch research report on S&P500 golden crosses.
Go to http://www.tradersnarrative.com/free-trading-resources/
Select "Reports and Articles"
Then "Golden Cross.pdf"

This report was commissioned by Bank of America/Merryl Lynch and shows that when associated with recessions, the average 12-month return after a Golden Cross is 19.2% vs the 7.1% average 12-month return for the index.

We live in hope that 2009 might be one of these years - (Quote from above post) Even those figures, however, benefit from three particular instances where the S&P 500 gained over 40% over the following year – those instances were 1942, 1953, and 1982 –

[Phaedrus]

Those figures benefit from three particular instances where the S&P 500 gained over 40% over the following year...

Sure - but such good years also contributed to raising the S&P 500 "buy and hold" historical average return.....to 7.1% pa.

[ananda77]

...SPX 500 reversed all of Monday's sell-off, but so far, the *930 break-out barrier still stands
-further advances to *956 likely, above *922/*925 congestion
-if there is a decisive Close below this level, *879/*865 need to be confirmed before any further advances to the *1000 level are possible

Trading Strategy: as before, give me *956 (+) and I start thinking, but even then, it is most unlikely, I would be seriously bothered with this manipulated GS-bull****

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

...SPX 500 reversed all of Monday's sell-off, but so far, the *930 break-out barrier still stands
-further advances to *956 likely, above *922/*925 congestion
-if there is a decisive Close below this level, *879/*865 need to be confirmed before any further advances to the *1000 level are possible

Trading Strategy: as before, give me *956 (+) and I start thinking, but even then, it is most unlikely, I would be seriously bothered with this manipulated GS-bull****

...and although medium to longer term, The SPX 500 most likely has not topped out yet, short term, in regards to the SPX 500 H&S topping pattern, any new High below the 11th. June Top *956, is a potential H&S peak (see attachment)
...and the VIX, after a low of ~25 (= 2 standard deviations below 20-day MA), now closed back within 2 standard deviations (= short term sell)

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

SPX 500 so far today:

-*922/*925 >gone
-*917 >gone
-*913 >gone
-*900 may go on the Close, >May 15 Low *879 and *865 in range

...if *865 defended > possibility, that the potential *1000/*1008 bottom will be in place

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards