Dow

[Jess9]

Euro markets out of the block and up 3%+. If the Mighty RBNZ also announces its .75-1.00% rate cut tomorrow, we may get a double whammy bounce and see the NZX finish the week rather nicely : )

[ananda77]

...most likely, a short, devastating intraday capitulation spike down to 6700 for the DJI and 670 for the SP500 still ahead and not too far into the future;

Kind Regards

[brettdale]

Hats off to Obama for his pick.

[ananda77]

One intra day spike? I guessing quite a few ... This going to bed at 7:00 pm and waking up at 3:00 am is beginning to get on my nerves. Still, trading from your laptop while sitting on the toilet makes for some interesting thought processes ... ... (was that too much information? )

...yes, one intraday spike...

...because if it turns out that way as THE FLOOR, it is only a floor of some serious kind, if the market consequently makes a higher high and a higher low (today the market made a lower low before a bit of a rally, therefore what we saw on Thursday was not the floor);

...and I think, given the serious state of market oversoldness, that in case of a floor, the higher low will be some 15 - 30 (%) higher than the previous low; and I do not want to miss out on the potential 15 - 30 (%) off the floor;

...ergo, fully invested now, but with a capital hedge

...otherwise the market will seriously crash in oversold territory

Kind Regards

[trendy]

...yes, one intraday spike...

...because if it turns out that way as THE FLOOR, it is only a floor of some serious kind, if the market consequently makes a higher high and a higher low (today the market made a lower low before a bit of a rally, therefore what we saw on Thursday was not the floor);

...and I think, given the serious state of market oversoldness, that in case of a floor, the higher low will be some 15 - 30 (%) higher than the previous low; and I do not want to miss out on the potential 15 - 30 (%) off the floor;

...ergo, fully invested now, but with a capital hedge

...otherwise the market will seriously crash in oversold territory

Kind Regards

I beg too differ as this is not going to be a clearly defined V bottom, we are in for a multi-year grind downwards and at best slow flat lining before trending back up. Bottom is not in.

More bad news to come in this deflationary environment. Bank lending here has slowed/stopped as they desperately try to hoard cash to protect balance sheet. Citigroup is another catastrophe that other banks will be redoubling efforts to avoid. Banks are so in need of cash they are now offering i-rates of greater than 4% for retail term deposits at a time when the FED is giving cash away at near 1%. Credit is evaporating for many businesses.

The FED is using everything they have to try and inflate the economy but unless credit can flow to the consumer it is as good as useless.

[ananda77]

I beg too differ as this is not going to be a clearly defined V bottom, we are in for a multi-year grind downwards and at best slow flat lining before trending back up. Bottom is not in.

More bad news to come in this deflationary environment. Bank lending here has slowed/stopped as they desperately try to hoard cash to protect balance sheet. Citigroup is another catastrophe that other banks will be redoubling efforts to avoid. Banks are so in need of cash they are now offering i-rates of greater than 4% for retail term deposits at a time when the FED is giving cash away at near 1%. Credit is evaporating for many businesses.

The FED is using everything they have to try and inflate the economy but unless credit can flow to the consumer it is as good as useless.

Trendy:

...basically agree with your sentiment, more bad news, more crunch, more market down momentum, etc, etc, but stick to my floor outline nevertheless, if we finally see THE FLOOR.

...at current levels (Friday's intraday low/SP 500) the market has priced in a 'recession', but it looks like the world is going to get a 'severe one', possibly most severe. Consequently, trading levels down to 600 or even 500 are possible, even likely.

Kind Regards

[SCHUMACHER]

good to see copper recover following a big dip last week............copper up approx 7% following a string of positives coming out of the US.....Obama anouncing his economic team and GOVT backing CITIBANK and gaining preference shares .............now all we need to do is get the banks to lend back out to the market to help stimulate the economy .....Obama also talking about creating 2.5 million jobs in relation to roading ,infastructure, schools and alternative fuels, so thats good for base metals in general

China uses 25% of all total copper produced and it looks like the chinese governments will also inject money into their economy.........

so today all in all we may see the beginning of a "short term bear rally" and hopefully we may see a "short squeeze" rally which means the shorters will have to buy back the shares that they loaned then sold the market down with.

I enjoy seeing the shorters suffer.....as they are responsible for excessively overselling the market..............

sould get a good bounce today ........GOLD up to $820 COPPER up 7% DOW up 300 points(currently with 1. 1/2 hours to go)............all good signs for a fat bear RALLY!!!!

[frostyboy]

somethings that have caught my attention today which if we have a down day next session in the US and i guess we will i will put in a small buy.

We are at resistance on the BKX should bounce off that and "Trader Vic’s 4-Day Rule" suggests that will be

volume is light on this holiday week, did the stocks rise cause of light volume.
previously action aournd the 2002 lows shows we are near a support and volume was picking up

my scenarios have never play out as expected

[ananda77]

Now it's official ... US is in Recession ... If memory serves, isn't it time to buy when it becomes official?

...those were the days belgarion, when the official announcement of a recession signaled the end of a bear party;

...but these days, as long as the CDS time bomb is ticking away and ready to explode soon, the world financial system remains extremely unstable;

Kind Regards

[frostyboy]

i didnt go long cause it didnt go down on friday as i thought, but i never expected such a sell off

signs of a bottom http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_market_bottom

these shouldnt be to hard to spot without to much effort, waiting for it is though, for me trying to pick a time when it will turn around is probably costly and should just continue waiting for the signs prob best to think of it as watching and not waiting

my most reliable one is looking at the number of stocks and sectors making new lows and how far the stocks current price is in relation to its recent new low, as is just the opposite with a top