Dow

[ananda77]

...like the usual high negative forecasts and then better than expected results...

the SPX 500 tiptoeing to lower Close, no impulsiveness leading the charge lower, as a result I would be bullish in the short to medium term until the index reaches the *1000/*1008 level as a minimum; further limited losses to *865/*868 could be expected short term;

Trading Strategy: sideline (safest); hedge: short bias

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

...looks like the SPX 500 H&S topping pattern turns out to be a 'faker'; and although another sell-off could be expected near *930/*950, there is good potential for *860/*865/*869 to be the floor for a bullish advance to *1000/*1027 (+) towards the end of summer

Trading Strategy: sideline (safest); hedge: long bias to *930/950 (+)

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

[Dr_Who]

Good numbers coming out of Singapore and China. Goldmans and a few others also posted good results. The market is now concentrating on corporate results. A few more good results can push this market higher. Lets see what the rest of the week brings.

[winner69]

Look at it this way ....

VIX at 31 means that punters are expecting the S&P500 to move by 9% in the next 30 days .... UP or down ... just slightly more than the =/- 8% expectations of yesterday

Not that volatile really?

See ..... the VIX was saying something like this weeks rally might happen ..... 9% indicated above was UP .... volatility can go both ways

And with the VIX now only 25 (pretty low) does that suggest that the current gains will hold and we can see some good dtaedy gains from here on in

[Hoop]

See ..... the VIX was saying something like this weeks rally might happen ..... 9% indicated above was UP .... volatility can go both ways

And with the VIX now only 25 (pretty low) does that suggest that the current gains will hold and we can see some good dtaedy gains from here on in

Agree.....and VIX is just one indicator of many that are showing conflicting signals to those theorists (mostly EW people) predicting a bear movement back to 6500 and below. I personally think the VIX has to break its primary downtrend and do a sudden and very dramatic uptrend reversal before any C wave can occur....a good indicator to keep your eye on ..eh Winner

[ananda77]

# FOMC minutes: downside econ risks still significant; 5-6 yrs before trend growth

...to make the SPX 500 *1000/*1027 target juicy enough, quite a bit of bullish sentiment needs to be shaken out of the market with a good portion of fear inducing downside

...index vulnerable to retrace to *869 which, if supported, would form the perfect solid base supporting the expected bullish *1000/*1027 advance; also, the *900 level can not be ruled out as support

...anyway, would be slightly uncomfortable to have filled a bullish portfolio today

Trading Strategy: sideline (safest); hedge: short bias

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

[Hoop]

Hoop, EW people?

A77 great work dude! While I don't usually play week-on-week positions your analysis has been wonderful in that it helps me to understand daily swings.

Hi Belgarion.

EW short for Elliot Wave analysis.

My posts might assume I am a critic of EW but I'm not..

...I respect this discipline of forecasting.....it's hard not to respect it when when you see past spectacular results acheived from it... such as Robert Prechter’s winning the big trading contest in the late 1980's by using EW alone.

Most EW people throughout the world and Dumbass our own ST resident EW poster all concur that this latest rally (March -?? ) is now a very mature B wave and is overdue to end resulting in a sharp downward trend (C wave) the extent of the drop of which can be forecasted using Fibonacci sequences.

I must admit that during last week I sold down when the technicals broke, and with Dumbass' impending C wave posts flashing through my brain, I decided to play the safety game and become less exposed. I was 95% in the market and was technically foolishly overexposed. I sold down to 60% with 40% now in cash. This week my gains are not as huge as they would've been but my portfolio is safer and I have cash for opportunities again .. I'm am bullish in that I beleive this inverted H&S formation will complete seeing the 9000 broken and another move up towards the 11000 but there was volatility on the left hand shoulder so this could theorically be mimicked on the right hand shoulder seeing drops to 7700 as being feasible if volatility returns...a good volatility indicator is the VIX and the VIX is saying at the moment that there is a better than average chance that a drop to 7700 won't happen in the short term because the volatilty is at a medium level and declining, Winner calculating it at this moment as a theoritical 9% swing either way (see Winner 69 post)

With this weeks hindsight, it seems last weeks TA breaks was false (bear trap) and the EW critics are out once again banging their drums, and the shorters are licking their wounds once again.

It's a funny old market..eh Belg?

[Dr_Who]

Dow is above 9000!

Bullmarket!

[Dr_Who]

Question is ... How far? And how fast? ... (personally I'm picking both far and fast!)

I am guessing, all those doomsayers which includes the funds that are short the market are climbing over eachother trying to get set back into the market. Alot of money have been sitting in the sidelines for too long, so it will take them time to buy back into the market.

[Footsie]

with non-farm payroll out tonight.... that pullback might arrive.

[Dusty]

with non-farm payroll out tonight.... that pullback might arrive.

247,000 jobs cut when forecasted was 320,00 and not only this but unemployment rate dropped to 9.4% as opposed to forecasted rising to 9.6. Which is obviously a good sign for consumer spending which many see as being the main obstacle for a sustained recovery.
AIG also have posted a profit for the first time in 7 quarters, (2nd q net earnings $1.8b)
Pullback not likely tonight.