Dow

[macduffy]

The Dow had another good day but keep an eye on the Baltic Dry Index.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=aOkYkh3CsUFg

[Dr_Who]

Thanks for the article Mcduffy. This is an interesting statement which can mean it is only temporary, maybe?

Rates are declining as Chinese steelmakers delay imports while they negotiate annual iron ore prices with producers such as Rio Tinto Group, BHP Billiton Ltd. and Vale SA, Durrell said. “I don’t think they will come back until they agree,” he said.

The unemployment figures out of the USA only tells us that there is maybe a light at the end of that tunnel, it is NOT yet a turn around figure. The unemployment rate have not turned around, it is only falling slower than previously forecast. This concerns me, esp when the market have rallied 50% too far ahead of itself.

Most of the company results have been boosted by cutting cost and not from increased earnings.

[Footsie]

well done belg... its about constantly improving yourself

[ananda77]

...just making a quick judgement without an in-depth analysis of the markets so far it seems, the SPX 500 trades within reach of a major top at *1044, with an intraday trading high of *1100 not out of reach

...the Dow sell-off from Friday, unconfirmed by the other US indices seems like a typical 'can not be bothered to hold over the weekend event')

...watch for further strengthening of the USD, which would add a lot of headwind to further bullish advance and supporting the 'major top argument'

Trading Strategy: sideline (safest); hedge: short bias adding on the upside at *1100;

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards
__________________
Exit Strategy:

[ananda77]

Welcome back A77.

Quick question - why "long term: the bear" ... what measures are you using?

...there are very strong views out there which expect a severe trough some time in the not too distant future as a result of extremely irrational and unsound financial practices that will only lead to the unhinging of existing financial and economic systems

...consequently, I do not look too far out on the curve as far as equity investment strategies are concerned

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

...SPX 500 light profit taking early in the week after Friday's 10 month high *1018, but the corrective move is likely to find support at the *1000 level;
...if the *1000 defense leads to a Close above *1014 (38.2 % retrace 2007/2008 break), then the SPX 500 should be on it's way to *1044/*1100 by the end of the month

Trading Strategy: unchanged

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards
__________________

[winner69]

love the term ;bailout bubble'

http://informationclearinghouse.info/article23224.htm

[Hoop]

Media bubble.... a great tool from conspiracy theorists rumour merchants politicians to company promoters etc.......a great marketing tool.

Internet bubble...used to be the phrase for the Dot-Com 1998-2000 bubble ...now its the explosion of internet communication Twitter Facebook etc.

Life Bubble ...another name for Earth

Bubbles everywhere!!!!!!!!!!!!



Bubbles are even come out of my TV set every-night....Mrs Hoop watching Shortland St, Coro, Casuality and all that other Soapy mush.



Are we in an age of Bubble Mania? ...obviously not according to Google

Edit:....food for thought... system cycles can not exist without bubbles.

[Hoop]

Adding on about system cycles and bubbles...

Everyone is rather focused on the Financial systems side of the "whole"(Global economic network of all systems). Understandable as part of the financial system cycle nearly went from orderly function to chaos in 2007 it panicked a lot of people and there are lingering doubts.



From my personal view the financial systems, although still a worry, they are not bothering me as much now as these systems have had the mechanics bought in overhauling part of these systems behind the scenes

....Personally I can see problems that worry me more coming from other systems

The Commodity cycle bubble is now big and growing. The system mechanics have yet to start work here to hinder/fix the large flow of smart money speculating within and distorting these markets.

For a complete normal economic recovery all system cycles have to behave (within their normal Standard Deviation range).

Vital to a continuation economic recovery is the future disconnect of commodity/Equity uptrend sync (correlation).

After this inverted Head and Shoulder formation is complete, it may not be the financial market worry that cause the DOW S&P500 + other Equity Markets to pause their uptrend and retrace negativity for a period of time it may well be the Commodity market (remaining high temporarily) starting to disconnect.

Edit....High commodity prices raising fear of flow through inflation...other reasons for a pause in uptrend and retrace to test the supports..would be recovery counterbalances commencing e.g rising interest rates

[ananda77]

...short term indications (VIX divergences) that the SPX 500 may already have topped at Friday's high *1018
...today's trading below *1000 opens up risk for a test of *983, which, if defended successfully, leaves the door open for further gains to *1044/1100 by end of August; otherwise, watch out for further losses to *925/*950 initially

...traders seem ready to abandon ship

Trading Strategy: sideline (safest); short bias with no equity exposure at present;

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards