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Thread: Dow

  1. #421
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
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    ...SPX 500 stayed well clear of the *983 and bottomed at *988 before heading impulsively higher

    ...the door is open for further gains to *1044/*1100, but to be sure, the bulls need to clear the *1014 on a Close

    ...SPX 500 Close *1006 and intraday High *1013 > dicey and the advance not to be trusted so far

    Traing Strategy: sideline (safest); hedge: bullish to *1044 (minimum); no equity exposure at these levels

    Long Term: THE BEAR

    _no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

    Kind Regards
    Last edited by ananda77; 13-08-2009 at 11:05 AM.

  2. #422
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
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    U.S. retail sales sank 0.1% in Jul, well below median 0.7%; -0.6% ex-autos
    U.S. jobless claims rose 4k to 558k, above median 545k for the Aug-8 week
    U.S. July home foreclosures +7% m/m, up 32% y/y to new record - Realtytrac
    U.S. business inventories declined 1.1% in Jun, below median vs -1.2% in May

    ...despite the soft data out in the US, the SPX 500 managed a firmer Close *1013 and seems to consolidate between Aug 7 high at 1,018 and the Aug 11 low at 992; bullish sentiment remains and a break-out from the consolidation range to the upside targeting *1044/*1100 seems likely by end of August

    Trading Strategy: sideline (safest); hedge: bullish to *1044 (minimum); no equity exposure at these levels

    Long Term: THE BEAR

    _no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

    Kind Regards
    Last edited by ananda77; 14-08-2009 at 08:05 AM.

  3. #423
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    Hi ananda77, I look for your posts most days and enjoy reading them.

    Each or at least most state, quote:
    -----------------------------------------------------------

    Trading Strategy: sideline (safest); hedge: bullish to *1044 (minimum); no equity exposure at these levels

    Long Term: THE BEAR

    -------------------------------------------------------------------
    Are you saying to stay on the side line and not trade ?
    Are you saying here, the market is bullish to 1044 (Dow) but no equity exposure ?
    Long term the bear, you've been saying that most of this year.

    It's like telling the lost driver to turn either left or right at the next corner, no firm direction.

    No doubt your directions are clear but i am confused.

    Thanks

  4. #424
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    kudos ananda. good work.

  5. #425
    Senior Member Lego_Man's Avatar
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    + 1 for ananda appreciation.

    The question is, how long is longterm?

  6. #426
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
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    ...Markets overbought > sideline = safest
    ...Markets not trending > sideline = safest ...or you trade depends on your risk profile

    ...trading two markets easier than one:
    -ASX for equities for example
    -derivatives (market platform) for insurance, flexibility, speed, extra leverage
    -no equities in an overbought market = position automatically profitable to the downside; derivative market position covers the upside potential > the spread is up to your own creativity and risk aversion (SPX 500 upside potential = *1044 minimum to *1100)

    ...long term: up to a couple of years (+) or soon, but I expect a severe trough in 2012/2013 > by end of year or sometime next year, the market could start the slide; long term: the bear really means, that trading happens on the basis to be always aware that every downside correction could be the big one (a bit like earthquakes)

    Kind Regards

  7. #427
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
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    U.S. CPI was flat in Jul, below median 0.1%; core rose 0.1%, below median 0.2%
    U.S. industrial production rose 0.5% in Jul, above median 0.2%; cap use 68.5%
    U. Michigan sentiment sank to 63.2 in Aug, well below median 68.0 vs 66.0 Jul

    ...stay put is not in the nature of a market and the failure of breaking through SPX 500 *1014/*1018 on a Close during the week, motivated profit taking;

    ...the retrace to the intraday *994 low (at present) stayed well within the defined consolidating trading range and still leaves the bullish sentiment intact for now; expect another attempt to break through resistance as early as next week

    Trading Strategy: sideline (safest); hedge: bullish to *1044 (minimum); no equity exposure at these levels

    Long Term: THE BEAR

    ‘The World Is in Trouble’: Deutsche Bank Chief Economist
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/32396144

    RBS uber-bear issues fresh alert on global stock markets
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/m...k-markets.html

    _no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

    Kind Regards

  8. #428
    Guru Dr_Who's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ananda77 View Post

    ‘The World Is in Trouble’: Deutsche Bank Chief Economist
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/32396144


    Kind Regards
    I have to disagree with the views by the DBS chief economist.

    The Chinese purchase US debt using cash, not debt. It is in the best interest for the Chinese to assist and rescue one of their largest customers. US is by far the Chinese biggest and most important market.

    Also the Chinese have a large commodity reserve that will hedge against any USD weakness. China is forecast to be the worlds biggest market by 2015. We are already witnessing a decoupling happening right now in front of our eyes. Strong Chinese economy have a flow on effect to other Asian and Eastern countries. This is evident with Australia. What we are seeing in Australia is the result of a strong Chinese economy.

    The world is slowly decoupling from the US.

    The central banks in the US and around the world will need to inflate the economy to help pay off the huge debt. This will create another bubble. They are doing exactly what they have done in the past. The cycle of boom and bust revisited yet again.
    Last edited by Dr_Who; 15-08-2009 at 09:07 AM.
    Having got ourselves into a debt-induced economic crisis, the only permanent way out is to reduce the debt – either directly by abolishing large slabs of it, or indirectly by inflating it away.

  9. #429
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
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    Dr. Who:

    ...just to give you another few views on reality read:

    The Coming China Meltdown
    by Martin HutchinsonAugust 04, 2009
    http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php...w?art_id=10256

    The Return of Thomas Mun
    by Martin HutchinsonJuly 27, 2009
    http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php...w?art_id=10254

    China Has become a Giant Ponzi Scheme
    Andy Xie (Morgan Stanley economist fired because of controversial views in e-mail)
    http://www.my1510.cn/article.php?id=e3fc777cdd24720a

    The Coming Collapse of The Chinese Economy
    By Professor Ching-hsi Chang
    http://en.epochtimes.com/news/5-8-25/31554.html

    ...and DO NOT FORGET the USD-RALLY just gaining momentum

    Kind Regards

  10. #430
    Guru Dr_Who's Avatar
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    Hey Ananda.

    Some of the points the commentators and economist make are valid and I dont disagree with them. I too believe that the next crash will come from China, so keep a close eye on China. China is going down the same path as the SE Asians in 1997 and the West recently 2007 crash. China still have a few more years to run before we have concerns about a fall.

    I believe that China do have a few more years to run as their economy is still growing at lighting speed. Their debt level is very low and the average Chinese are still saving more than they earn. The domestic debt level in China are still low in comparison to the other countries.

    I hope China dont get themselves into trouble by mounting up huge debt levels and learn from the mistakes displayed by US. If China goes down the toilet, the world will go into a deep depression.

    For now we are still relatively safe with the Chinese economy strong and going on a spending spree that will have a very positive flow on effect for its neighbours. Aust will still be in a recession if it wasnt for China.
    Having got ourselves into a debt-induced economic crisis, the only permanent way out is to reduce the debt – either directly by abolishing large slabs of it, or indirectly by inflating it away.

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