Dow

[Dr_Who]

Ive got a feeling that the US market is struggling to go higher. It is trying to find a reason to move higher. It will have to be a very good reason for it to move higher after having gone up 50% in 6 months.

The Asian market will be volatile for awhile yet, which could mean good trading opportunities.

Ananda, have you thought about trading the Hong Kong or China market?

[lakedaemonian]

Hey Ananda.

Some of the points the commentators and economist make are valid and I dont disagree with them. I too believe that the next crash will come from China, so keep a close eye on China. China is going down the same path as the SE Asians in 1997 and the West recently 2007 crash. China still have a few more years to run before we have concerns about a fall.

I believe that China do have a few more years to run as their economy is still growing at lighting speed. Their debt level is very low and the average Chinese are still saving more than they earn. The domestic debt level in China are still low in comparison to the other countries.

I hope China dont get themselves into trouble by mounting up huge debt levels and learn from the mistakes displayed by US. If China goes down the toilet, the world will go into a deep depression.

For now we are still relatively safe with the Chinese economy strong and going on a spending spree that will have a very positive flow on effect for its neighbours. Aust will still be in a recession if it wasnt for China.

The folks over at iTulip are calling a top for China's bull run in the short-ish term...with an expectation of a bubble top in the next 12 months.

So I guess that would be a short on FXI

[Dr_Who]

China took another bath today down over 4%. A health correction before the next leg up? Who knows, valuations on some China stocks are pretty up.

Laked, do you have a link to the article? Cheers

[lakedaemonian]

China took another bath today down over 4%. A health correction before the next leg up? Who knows, valuations on some China stocks are pretty up.

Laked, do you have a link to the article? Cheers

Unfortunately, it is not available in the public forum....gotta join Select

It would be inappropriate for me to copy the article, BUT in short:

EJ at iTulip is sticking his neck out and calling China a top as well as the 2nd and last chance to short China for the foreseeable future.......and he's been right far more than most everyone in the last 10 years.

Also, Andy Xie is calling Chinese stocks and property 50-100% overvalued.

I'm not one to trade shorts, but am considering it.

My biggest worry is the big picture stuff, if EJ and Andy are correct.

I think we are as well positioned as we can be in the event it happens, but it's always worth quadruple checking I suppose.

iTulip is an invaluable resource.....I strongly encourage folks to tab it alongside sharetrader.

[ananda77]

...SPX 500 *978 successfully defended in early trading leading to a swift recovery, the upside capped however by the Aug 14 Low *995/Aug 14 Congestion *1,004; (the Dow penetrated *9233 and traded as high as *9310); the Closes on the US indices are important after today's trading action

...a SPX 500 Close under *995/*1004 would most likely invite another leg down for a test of the Jul 29 Low at *968 minimum; if tested successfully, a bullish bias would target *1018 initially with *1044/*1100 in sight

!!!BUT!!!...make no mistake, there is potential that this bear rally had it!!!

Trading Strategy: sideline (safest);
-hedge: neutral to bullish bias to *1018/*1044/*1100; no equity exposure;
-hedge: neutral to short bias with equity exposure (the juice upcoming dividends in some defensive stocks are difficult to resist at times)

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

[Dr_Who]

EJ at iTulip is sticking his neck out and calling China a top as well as the 2nd and last chance to short China for the foreseeable future.......and he's been right far more than most everyone in the last 10 years.

Also, Andy Xie is calling Chinese stocks and property 50-100% overvalued.

If they are right, it can have huge implications for the global economy. We can go into a depression.

I am in a view that China do have a few more years to run. Make no mistake, alot of assets are over valued cos China is growing at a faster pace than other countries and assets can be priced at a higher multiple.

Alot of SE ASian countries are now booming because of China and India. The flow on effect is huge.

Here is hoping China do not fall too soon.

[lakedaemonian]

If they are right, it can have huge implications for the global economy. We can go into a depression.

I am in a view that China do have a few more years to run. Make no mistake, alot of assets are over valued cos China is growing at a faster pace than other countries and assets can be priced at a higher multiple.

Alot of SE ASian countries are now booming because of China and India. The flow on effect is huge.

Here is hoping China do not fall too soon.

To clarify further...iTulip' official position IS referring to this process as a Depression....and I would agree.

[ananda77]

S&P 500 pushed back above 1,000, buoyed by AIG, Shanghai Composite bounce
U.S. Philly Fed jumped to +4.2 in August (median -1.0) from -7.5 in July
U.S. leading indicator rose 0.6% in July, as expected, vs +0.8% June
U.S. jobless claims jumped to 576k (median 550k), vs 561k in prior week

...after yesterday's firm Close *1007 and despite the mixed data, the SPX 500 reached out for further gains with bullish sentiment set to drive the index to a new recovery high later August

...there is potential, not a necessity, for a mild correction, to affirm Jul 29 Low at *968 (minimum) before hitting a new High; if tested successfully, a bullish bias would target *1018 initially with *1044/*1100 in sight; but it could be a one-way street to initially challenge *1018 (+)

!!!BUT!!!...make no mistake, there is potential that this bear rally had it!!!

Trading Strategy: sideline (safest);
-hedge: neutral to bullish bias to *1018/*1044/*1100; no equity exposure;
-hedge: neutral to short bias with equity exposure (the juice upcoming dividends in some defensive stocks are difficult to resist at times)

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

Eurozone Aug manufacturing PMI jumped to 47.9 (median 48.0) from 46.3
Eurozone Aug services PMI much stronger than expected at 49.5 (median 46.5)
U.S. existing home sales surged 7.2% to 5.24 mln units in Jul (median 5.00 mln)
S&P 500 surged to new trend high, keying off U.S., eurozone data, corporate earnings

...SPX 500 gapped open higher to a bullish take-out of the Aug 7 peak *1,018 and further upside appears likely in the short term

...the break-out sets the tone for a tackle of the Oct 14 High *1,044 initially with *1100 in sight

Trading Strategy: sideline (safest);
-hedge: neutral to bullish bias to *1018/*1044/*1100; no equity exposure;
-hedge: neutral to short bias with equity exposure

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

[Footsie]

still bearish amanda?
I hope you dont turn LONG TERM BULLISH at the top