Dow

[ananda77]

Beacon, Belgarion, Dr.Who, Phaedrus, et al. (this is an alphabetical listing of names and not indicative of preference)

...why limit ourselves...

...there is no doubt about Phaedrus's insight and extensive knowledge in conventional TA and its validity; consequently, it should be an important part in any mix of market analysis;

...as far as my posts are concerned, they are, over the span of a week/month, mainly the research results of three different styles of market analysis, analysing the US market according to various time frames using an exiting mix of tools;

-an extremely conservative analysis with the main focus on 'Preservation of Capital'
-a contrarian analysis
-a trading analysis extremely close to the daily market action using mainly 'price' to determine probabilities

...the more knowledge that goes into the decision making process, the better the result

...one may argue till the cows come home, but personally, that would distract me only from the task at hand;

Kind Regards and see you at tomorrow's market update; -May We All Be Successful-

[ananda77]

The main question here that we all have to answer is "What should I be doing today?" Right now, should I be buying, selling, holding or standing aside?

...as a personal strategy, considering emerging divergences displayed on some indicators in the major US indexes:

...fully invested, currently 5% hedged on equity, ready to take the hedge VERY quickly to 50%

...by he way belgarion, I like your investment style

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

...so far the SPX 500 intraday Low *1015 and the Close *1021 is still within the support range where upward bullish developments are likely; because of the current weak streaks appearing in global markets, there is likely further downside for a test of the August 20th High *1008 with possible further down to the *1000/*980 support for the SPX 500; if this support range is defended on more then aenemic volume, the bullish bias is likely to target the Oct 14 High *1,044 (+) initially

...there are some serious divergences developing in the major indexes however which indicate a continuously weakening market support if they develop further


Trading Strategy: sideline (safest);
-hedge: neutral to bullish bias to *1018/*1044/*1100; no equity exposure;
-hedge: neutral to short bias (5% short on equity) with equity exposure

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

[ananda77]

...after the major US Indexes rallied to over 50% since their March Lows, the markets face now hurdles that are not easy to take (see attachments); so it comes as no surprise, that according to TrimTabs Investment Research:

Insiders Selling Stocks at Highest Level Since May 2008
http://news.prnewswire.com/DisplayRe...5084471&EDATE=
"In a research note, TrimTabs explained that insider activity is not the only sign the rally is about to end. The TrimTabs Demand Index, which tracks 18 fund flow and sentiment indicators, has turned very bearish for the first time since March."

...however, because the markets are so close to their respective trend lines, it is likely in the very short term, the markets will challenge those hurdles and with a high degree of probability a major market top should coincide with the test...otherwise we would have a new bull market ahead of us...

Kind Regards

[Jess9]

Cashed up today. Watching TA signals closely. Discipline and patience required next.

[ananda77]

U.S. ISM surged to 52.9 in Aug, well above median 50.5 vs 48.9 in Jul
U.S. construction spending sank 0.2% in Jul, in line with median vs 0.1% in Jun
U.S. NAR pending home sales rose 3.2% to 97.6 in Jul, above median vs 94.6
U.S. vehicle sales tracking 23% surge to 13.8 mln in Aug (med 13.3) on clunkers

...SPX 500 testing Aug 20 Congestion *1,006/Aug 19 High *1,000 in what could be described as an 'Impulsive Sell-The-Fact' sell-off;

...Aug 19 Congestion *993 currently supported by intraday low *998; however, the impulsive plunge below *1012 has certainly introduced the bear into the markets and as a consequence, markets are now on the tilt;

...a decisive defense of the current trading Lows would indicate the willingness of bulls to still play the game targeting Oct 14 High *1,044 and the *1050 barrier initially, but!!!

...a new recovery High remains unlikely unless the bulls really take out the SPX 500 *1030 barrier decisively

----Game On---

Trading Strategy: sideline (safest);
-hedge: neutral to bullish bias to *1018/*1044/*1100; no equity exposure;
-hedge: neutral to short bias (10% short on equity (+) depending on today's Close) with equity exposure

Long Term: THE BEAR

_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

Kind Regards

[Dr_Who]

Looks like a healthy correction coming up.

I held on some cash to take advantage of this correction.

[winner69]

VIX jumps to 29 .... thats good news cause it signals the strong possibility of a 8% rise in the S&P500 in the next 30 days

[STRAT]

Cashed up today. Watching TA signals closely. Discipline and patience required next.

Everything Jess?
Thats quite a strong reaction I would have thought

[Hoop]

A freebie from Technical Indicator courtesy of MarketWatch.

It has Monday 31st August data but not todays (USATime) data (1 Sept) so just mentally note on the charts the latest closing bell data
DOW 9311
Nasdaq 1969
S&P500 998