sharetrader
Page 49 of 107 FirstFirst ... 394546474849505152535999 ... LastLast
Results 481 to 490 of 1069

Thread: Dow

  1. #481
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    Palmerston North, New Zealand.
    Posts
    1,275

    Default

    Hi Strat. Probably jumped the gun as usual. All sold apart from what cant be, those troublesome oppies in a nameless gold minnow...which is sorely trialing my patience, BUT which may still shine : )

    Happy to wait for ITC, at the right price, on any general sell down.

  2. #482
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    New Zealand.
    Posts
    1,465

    Default Shanghai 180 A Shares

    The Shanghai 180 A Shares Index is already back in bear market territory;

    China: Bogus Boom?
    John H. Makin
    http://www.aei.org/outlook/100061

    "China's aggressive attempts to maintain an 8 percent growth rate for an economy that is export-oriented in a world in which global trade volumes are collapsing carry substantial risks."

    Will the spill-over effect into global markets be ongoing

    Kind Regards
    Last edited by ananda77; 02-09-2009 at 06:04 PM.

  3. #483
    Guru Dr_Who's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Posts
    3,045

    Default

    If only we can buy the Shanghai A share index.

    I wouldnt mind trading it. Looks like heart attack territory fun.

    I actually think this is a healthy correction.
    Last edited by Dr_Who; 02-09-2009 at 06:29 PM.
    Having got ourselves into a debt-induced economic crisis, the only permanent way out is to reduce the debt – either directly by abolishing large slabs of it, or indirectly by inflating it away.

  4. #484
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    New Zealand.
    Posts
    1,465

    Thumbs up

    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    VIX jumps to 29 .... thats good news cause it signals the strong possibility of a 8% rise in the S&P500 in the next 30 days
    ...VIX pushed to a Close beyond two standard deviations above its 20-period MA = bearish; however a consequent Close under its 20-period MA would turn the market short-term bullish; but!!!

    ......a new recovery High remains unlikely unless the bulls really take out the SPX 500 *1030 barrier decisively

    Kind Regards
    Last edited by ananda77; 02-09-2009 at 11:53 PM.

  5. #485
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    New Zealand.
    Posts
    1,465

    Default

    U.S. Q2 productivity revised up to 6.6%, above median 6.4% vs 6.4%; ULCs -5.9%
    U.S. ADP employment survey sank 298k in Aug, below median -250k vs -360k Jul
    U.S. MBA market index sank 2.2%, purchase index -1.0%, refi index -3.1%
    FOMC minutes: rates should be kept low for long time, asset purchases steady
    Fed's Lockhart economic recovery mild, inflation risks are not a major worry now
    FDIC's Bair warns on commercial mortgages

    ...as expected, SPX 500 traded lower to *992 support and currently hanging on the cliff with bare teeth; the 31 August Low *1014 would be the minimum bull rescue bid on a Close-Basis, to get the index back on land, otherwise additional weakness would cause another plunge for a test of Aug 17 Low *980 as a potential stronger floor

    ...*1014 as the minimum bid would indicate the willingness of the bulls to still play the game targeting Oct 14 High *1,044 and the *1050 barrier initially, but a lower risk strategy would imply no action until *1030 taken out on a Close-Basis

    Trading Strategy: sideline (safest);
    -hedge: neutral to bullish bias to *1018/*1044/*1100; no equity exposure;
    -hedge: neutral to short bias (10% short on equity to *1014 on a Close-Basis; 5% short on equity to *1030 on a Close-Basis; neutral >*1030) with equity exposure

    Long Term: THE BEAR

    _no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

    Kind Regards
    Last edited by ananda77; 03-09-2009 at 06:35 AM.

  6. #486
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    New Zealand.
    Posts
    1,465

    Default

    U.S. ISM non-manufacturing index rose to 48.4 in Aug, above median 48.0 vs 46.4
    U.S. initial jobless claims fell 4k to 570k, above median 560k for Aug-29 week
    China finalized deal to purchase $50 bln worth of SDR-denominated IMF notes
    S&P raises 12-month target for index to 1,100

    ...as long as the Chenards-RSI stays positive, there is a chance for a rebound, but the market remains on a tilt; the VIX still not trading below 2 STD below its 20-day MA period (= bullish signal for short term bounce) and consequently, the market is in bearish mode at present

    (see attachment)

    ...basically flat-lining, the SPX 500 seems stabilizing and as long as today's intraday low *992 remains the pivot point in the short term, chances are, bullish tendencies will resume at some stage later;

    ...SPX 500 keypoints *1014/*1030 have to be taken out on a Close-Basis for bulls to show, they are still in the game playing the *1044/*1050 targets and eventually establishing a new High above August *1039;

    ...if *992 goes down the pipe, the market would most likely take another breather around *975 (= 38% retracement of the Jul-Aug rally) for a test

    ...watch out for the Job report tomorrow as a possible katalysator for a key move to either side

    --- 8:30 am Nonfarm payrolls Aug. forecast -233,000 last -247,000 ---

    Trading Strategy: sideline (safest);
    -hedge: neutral to bullish bias to *1018/*1044/*1100; no equity exposure;
    -hedge: neutral to short bias (10% short on equity to *1014 on a Close-Basis; 5% short on equity to *1030 on a Close-Basis; neutral >*1030) with equity exposure

    Long Term: THE BEAR

    _no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

    Kind Regards
    Last edited by ananda77; 04-09-2009 at 10:12 AM.

  7. #487
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    New Zealand.
    Posts
    1,465

    Default

    Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises (1881 - 1973):

    "There is no means of avoiding a final collapse of a boom brought about by Credit Expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."

    ...translated into current markets

    Charles Biderman, CEO TrimTabs Investment Research:

    ”"Insider selling is 30 times insider buying, while corporate stock buybacks are non-existent. Companies are saying they don't want to touch their own stocks."..."When companies are heavy sellers (of their own stocks) and retail customers are borrowing to buy stocks; that's always been a sign of a market top."

    ...the end of the trading week has been under the wing of an extended US holiday and trading may have been subject to position squaring;

    ...although NYSE volume is still diminishing, the SPX 500 took the minimum *1014 hurdle on a Close-Basis preparing for the bulls' entrance onto the playing field again;

    ...and despite being knocked back during the sell-down last week, Fed and Foreign liquidity inflows remained strong but are extremely over-extended; as the bond market shows, markets anywhere have become addicted to the continuous flow of funds fresh off the press

    the buy/sell spread of institutional investors just avoided the cross-over level and remained neutral with a slight up-tick by the end of the trading today;
    last not least, the VIX delivered the expected SHORT-TERM bullish signal by closing back within two STD of its 20-day period MA;

    ...in terms of trading, SPX 500 *992 most likely in for another test next week and the rest is covered in the previous update:

    -successful defense = bullish to *1044/*1050 targets initially
    -failure = test of *975 initially

    ......so watch timing; watching the spreads in the credit market always has been a good indicator of an approaching crisis

    Trading Strategy: sideline (safest);
    -hedge: neutral to bullish bias to *1018/*1044/*1100; no equity exposure;
    -hedge: neutral to short bias (10% short on equity to *1014 on a Close-Basis; 5% short on equity to *1030 on a Close-Basis; neutral >*1030) with equity exposure; STOPS to the downside VERY UNCOMPROMISING (although it may compromise the margin)

    Long Term: THE BEAR

    _no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

    Kind Regards
    Last edited by ananda77; 05-09-2009 at 03:50 PM.

  8. #488
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    New Zealand.
    Posts
    1,465

    Default

    the SPX 500 and other US markets are at a MAJOR resistance level (see attachment)

  9. #489
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    New Zealand.
    Posts
    1,465

    Default

    ...seems the bulls have come back refreshed from their extended holiday and immediately got to work to extend the SPX 500 bounce from *992 to take out the Aug 28 Low *1015 decisively; as a result, the new key level to watch for any sign of weakness is the Sep 4 Congestion *1,012;

    ...as long as the weeks trading action remains above that level, the risk of a deeper sell-off is markedly reduced and chances are, that the market will grunge higher to take on the long awaited Oct 14 High *1044/barrier *1050 targets initially;

    ...further up the market would have to deal with the Oct 7 High *1072 and the 50% retracement of the 2008-2009 Break *1119

    ...on the other hand, a break below *1012 would signal a sideways/consolidating stance featuring a range between *992 - *1026

    ...looking at the SPX 500 monthly chart, it looks like a bull market has already started as the MACD/MACD histogram, as well as the Stochastic are turning upwards (see attachment); however, September is not over yet and only if these indicators stay positive into the month end and the SPX 500 Close *1039 is taken out, the market is technically in a new bull phase

    Trading Strategy: sideline (safest);
    -hedge: neutral to bullish bias to *1018/*1044/*1100; no equity exposure;
    -hedge: neutral to short bias (10% short on equity to *1014 on a Close-Basis; 5% short on equity to *1030 on a Close-Basis; neutral >*1030) with equity exposure

    Long Term: THE BEAR

    _no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

    Kind Regards
    Last edited by ananda77; 09-09-2009 at 07:27 AM.

  10. #490
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Location
    New Zealand.
    Posts
    1,465

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by belgarion View Post
    .... What effect will a depreciating USD have?
    belgarion, I guess a devaluing US dollar will be a positive for stocks; it will be inflationary for sure, but if a company has pricing power over their products, it can raise prices and maintain profitability;
    also, a company that generate a large portion of their sales from outside the US will benefit from the declining dollar

    ...maybe the Chinese ARE worried about diminishing dollar values but it is not a worry to me; I would be a lot more concerned for the equity markets about what is happening in the bond markets right now

    Kind Regards

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •