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02-09-2009, 10:11 AM
#481
Hi Strat. Probably jumped the gun as usual. All sold apart from what cant be, those troublesome oppies in a nameless gold minnow...which is sorely trialing my patience, BUT which may still shine : )
Happy to wait for ITC, at the right price, on any general sell down.
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02-09-2009, 05:55 PM
#482
Shanghai 180 A Shares
The Shanghai 180 A Shares Index is already back in bear market territory;
China: Bogus Boom?
John H. Makin
http://www.aei.org/outlook/100061
"China's aggressive attempts to maintain an 8 percent growth rate for an economy that is export-oriented in a world in which global trade volumes are collapsing carry substantial risks."
Will the spill-over effect into global markets be ongoing
Kind Regards
Last edited by ananda77; 02-09-2009 at 07:04 PM.
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02-09-2009, 07:26 PM
#483
If only we can buy the Shanghai A share index.
I wouldnt mind trading it. Looks like heart attack territory fun.
I actually think this is a healthy correction.
Last edited by Dr_Who; 02-09-2009 at 07:29 PM.
Having got ourselves into a debt-induced economic crisis, the only permanent way out is to reduce the debt – either directly by abolishing large slabs of it, or indirectly by inflating it away.
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03-09-2009, 12:51 AM
#484
Originally Posted by winner69
VIX jumps to 29 .... thats good news cause it signals the strong possibility of a 8% rise in the S&P500 in the next 30 days
...VIX pushed to a Close beyond two standard deviations above its 20-period MA = bearish; however a consequent Close under its 20-period MA would turn the market short-term bullish; but!!!
......a new recovery High remains unlikely unless the bulls really take out the SPX 500 *1030 barrier decisively
Kind Regards
Last edited by ananda77; 03-09-2009 at 12:53 AM.
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03-09-2009, 07:16 AM
#485
U.S. Q2 productivity revised up to 6.6%, above median 6.4% vs 6.4%; ULCs -5.9%
U.S. ADP employment survey sank 298k in Aug, below median -250k vs -360k Jul
U.S. MBA market index sank 2.2%, purchase index -1.0%, refi index -3.1%
FOMC minutes: rates should be kept low for long time, asset purchases steady
Fed's Lockhart economic recovery mild, inflation risks are not a major worry now
FDIC's Bair warns on commercial mortgages
...as expected, SPX 500 traded lower to *992 support and currently hanging on the cliff with bare teeth; the 31 August Low *1014 would be the minimum bull rescue bid on a Close-Basis, to get the index back on land, otherwise additional weakness would cause another plunge for a test of Aug 17 Low *980 as a potential stronger floor
...*1014 as the minimum bid would indicate the willingness of the bulls to still play the game targeting Oct 14 High *1,044 and the *1050 barrier initially, but a lower risk strategy would imply no action until *1030 taken out on a Close-Basis
Trading Strategy: sideline (safest);
-hedge: neutral to bullish bias to *1018/*1044/*1100; no equity exposure;
-hedge: neutral to short bias (10% short on equity to *1014 on a Close-Basis; 5% short on equity to *1030 on a Close-Basis; neutral >*1030) with equity exposure
Long Term: THE BEAR
_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_
Kind Regards
Last edited by ananda77; 03-09-2009 at 07:35 AM.
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04-09-2009, 06:50 AM
#486
U.S. ISM non-manufacturing index rose to 48.4 in Aug, above median 48.0 vs 46.4
U.S. initial jobless claims fell 4k to 570k, above median 560k for Aug-29 week
China finalized deal to purchase $50 bln worth of SDR-denominated IMF notes
S&P raises 12-month target for index to 1,100
...as long as the Chenards-RSI stays positive, there is a chance for a rebound, but the market remains on a tilt; the VIX still not trading below 2 STD below its 20-day MA period (= bullish signal for short term bounce) and consequently, the market is in bearish mode at present
(see attachment)
...basically flat-lining, the SPX 500 seems stabilizing and as long as today's intraday low *992 remains the pivot point in the short term, chances are, bullish tendencies will resume at some stage later;
...SPX 500 keypoints *1014/*1030 have to be taken out on a Close-Basis for bulls to show, they are still in the game playing the *1044/*1050 targets and eventually establishing a new High above August *1039;
...if *992 goes down the pipe, the market would most likely take another breather around *975 (= 38% retracement of the Jul-Aug rally) for a test
...watch out for the Job report tomorrow as a possible katalysator for a key move to either side
--- 8:30 am Nonfarm payrolls Aug. forecast -233,000 last -247,000 ---
Trading Strategy: sideline (safest);
-hedge: neutral to bullish bias to *1018/*1044/*1100; no equity exposure;
-hedge: neutral to short bias (10% short on equity to *1014 on a Close-Basis; 5% short on equity to *1030 on a Close-Basis; neutral >*1030) with equity exposure
Long Term: THE BEAR
_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_
Kind Regards
Last edited by ananda77; 04-09-2009 at 11:12 AM.
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05-09-2009, 04:48 PM
#487
Austrian economist Ludwig von Mises (1881 - 1973):
"There is no means of avoiding a final collapse of a boom brought about by Credit Expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."
...translated into current markets
Charles Biderman, CEO TrimTabs Investment Research:
”"Insider selling is 30 times insider buying, while corporate stock buybacks are non-existent. Companies are saying they don't want to touch their own stocks."..."When companies are heavy sellers (of their own stocks) and retail customers are borrowing to buy stocks; that's always been a sign of a market top."
...the end of the trading week has been under the wing of an extended US holiday and trading may have been subject to position squaring;
...although NYSE volume is still diminishing, the SPX 500 took the minimum *1014 hurdle on a Close-Basis preparing for the bulls' entrance onto the playing field again;
...and despite being knocked back during the sell-down last week, Fed and Foreign liquidity inflows remained strong but are extremely over-extended; as the bond market shows, markets anywhere have become addicted to the continuous flow of funds fresh off the press
the buy/sell spread of institutional investors just avoided the cross-over level and remained neutral with a slight up-tick by the end of the trading today;
last not least, the VIX delivered the expected SHORT-TERM bullish signal by closing back within two STD of its 20-day period MA;
...in terms of trading, SPX 500 *992 most likely in for another test next week and the rest is covered in the previous update:
-successful defense = bullish to *1044/*1050 targets initially
-failure = test of *975 initially
......so watch timing; watching the spreads in the credit market always has been a good indicator of an approaching crisis
Trading Strategy: sideline (safest);
-hedge: neutral to bullish bias to *1018/*1044/*1100; no equity exposure;
-hedge: neutral to short bias (10% short on equity to *1014 on a Close-Basis; 5% short on equity to *1030 on a Close-Basis; neutral >*1030) with equity exposure; STOPS to the downside VERY UNCOMPROMISING (although it may compromise the margin)
Long Term: THE BEAR
_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_
Kind Regards
Last edited by ananda77; 05-09-2009 at 04:50 PM.
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07-09-2009, 07:18 PM
#488
the SPX 500 and other US markets are at a MAJOR resistance level (see attachment)
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09-09-2009, 07:58 AM
#489
...seems the bulls have come back refreshed from their extended holiday and immediately got to work to extend the SPX 500 bounce from *992 to take out the Aug 28 Low *1015 decisively; as a result, the new key level to watch for any sign of weakness is the Sep 4 Congestion *1,012;
...as long as the weeks trading action remains above that level, the risk of a deeper sell-off is markedly reduced and chances are, that the market will grunge higher to take on the long awaited Oct 14 High *1044/barrier *1050 targets initially;
...further up the market would have to deal with the Oct 7 High *1072 and the 50% retracement of the 2008-2009 Break *1119
...on the other hand, a break below *1012 would signal a sideways/consolidating stance featuring a range between *992 - *1026
...looking at the SPX 500 monthly chart, it looks like a bull market has already started as the MACD/MACD histogram, as well as the Stochastic are turning upwards (see attachment); however, September is not over yet and only if these indicators stay positive into the month end and the SPX 500 Close *1039 is taken out, the market is technically in a new bull phase
Trading Strategy: sideline (safest);
-hedge: neutral to bullish bias to *1018/*1044/*1100; no equity exposure;
-hedge: neutral to short bias (10% short on equity to *1014 on a Close-Basis; 5% short on equity to *1030 on a Close-Basis; neutral >*1030) with equity exposure
Long Term: THE BEAR
_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_
Kind Regards
Last edited by ananda77; 09-09-2009 at 08:27 AM.
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09-09-2009, 07:18 PM
#490
Originally Posted by belgarion
.... What effect will a depreciating USD have?
belgarion, I guess a devaluing US dollar will be a positive for stocks; it will be inflationary for sure, but if a company has pricing power over their products, it can raise prices and maintain profitability;
also, a company that generate a large portion of their sales from outside the US will benefit from the declining dollar
...maybe the Chinese ARE worried about diminishing dollar values but it is not a worry to me; I would be a lot more concerned for the equity markets about what is happening in the bond markets right now
Kind Regards
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