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Thread: Dow

  1. #491
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
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    ...SPX 500 currently up 5 and seems on track to continue the rally as long as trading level remains above *1012

    Trading Strategy: sideline (safest);
    -hedge: neutral to bullish bias to *1018/*1044/*1100; no equity exposure;
    -hedge: neutral to short bias (10% short on equity to *1014 on a Close-Basis; 5% short on equity to *1030 on a Close-Basis; neutral >*1030) with equity exposure

    Long Term: THE BEAR

    _no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

    Kind Regards

  2. #492
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    a77 by missing this entire rally "on sidelines - safest"

    how do you make money from investing?
    “If you're worried about falling off the bike, you’d never get on.”

  3. #493
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
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    Red face

    Quote Originally Posted by Footsie View Post
    a77 by missing this entire rally "on sidelines - safest" how do you make money from investing?
    ...if you stay on the sideline, you are not making money from investing, but you are not loosing it either; -decisions, decisions-

    Kind Regards

  4. #494
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    Quote Originally Posted by ananda77 View Post
    ...if you stay on the sideline, you are not making money from investing, but you are not loosing it either; -decisions, decisions-

    Kind Regards
    You might be 'loosing' it through opportunity cost.

  5. #495
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    footsie, you don't get it do you. Bank interest mate, thats sidelines. Never mind the Dow's up like 50% since March ?????????????????????????

    long term : the bear

    sorry 77 but i don;\'t get it either

  6. #496
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ollie View Post
    long term : the bear; sorry 77 but i don;\'t get it either
    ...let's take a look at what is happening to the US 10 yr Long Bond:

    (see attachment _a)

    ...the Long Bond breaks out of the triangle formation to the downside

    (see attachment _b)

    ...immediately, the Fed, despite talking bull**** re: monetary policy reversal, intervenes in the market in an effort to hide that the credit crisis is still well and very much alive

    (see attachment_c)

    ...the Long Bond currently

    (see attachment_d)

    and the question begs: -How Long Can The Fed Keep This Complete Nonsense Up?-

    !!!A YIELD BREAK-OUT TO THE UPSIDE WILL SIGNAL THE END OF THE CREDIT CRISIS!!!

    !!! A YIELD BREAK-OUT TO THE DOWNSIDE WILL SIGNAL A DEEP DEPRESSION!!!

    ...the bond market is approaching the Apex of the triangle formation and until the break-out occurs, the equity markets are likely to continue to rally and any attempt to top-hunt is likely to fail;

    Kind Regards

  7. #497
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
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    U.S. initial jobless claims sank 26k to 550k, below median 560k for Sep-5 week
    Continuing Claims 08/29 6088K down (main reason: benefit period ends)
    U.S. trade deficit deepened to -$32.0 bln in Jul vs median -$27.5 bln, -$27.5 bln Jun

    ...SPX 500, after a mild shake-out move early in the trading day, crawled steadily higher and is within a hair breadth of the *1044/*1050 target

    ...as long as the weeks trading action remains above the *1012 level, the market will likely grunge higher to take on the long awaited Oct 14 High *1044/barrier *1050 targets initially and deal with the Oct 7 High *1072 and the 50% retracement of the 2008-2009 Break *1119 further up

    ...on the other hand, a break below *1012 signals a sideways/consolidating stance featuring a range between *992 - *1026

    ----Treasury prices extended gains Thursday, pushing 10-year yields down by the most in two months, as the government's sale of 30-year bonds drew strong investor demand on the heels of two note auctions that went off successfully this week----

    Trading Strategy: sideline (safest);
    -hedge: neutral to bullish bias to *1018/*1044/*1100; no equity exposure;
    -hedge: short (minimum 5% equity covered ) with equity exposure; short bias (+)

    Long Term: THE BEAR

    _no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

    Kind Regards
    Last edited by ananda77; 11-09-2009 at 07:29 AM.

  8. #498
    Guru Dr_Who's Avatar
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    I have a feeling this market wants to come down.

    The market is now factoring the best case scenario. Any bad news will be a good reason for a sell down.
    Having got ourselves into a debt-induced economic crisis, the only permanent way out is to reduce the debt – either directly by abolishing large slabs of it, or indirectly by inflating it away.

  9. #499
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by belgarion View Post
    You mention insiders are selling - Could this be because insiders, typically high net worth individuals advised by the same group that touted derivitives, are in the same position as the banks and they need to sell assets to cover the loses they've made in derivitives. Reason I'm speculating is that much the same thing happened when some Lloyds syndicates got hit hard.
    ...no matter what objective a company CEO, Chief Financial Officer, or Majority Share Holder has to sell their shares, there is only one reason for the US $31 SELLING TUNE against the US1$ BUYING TUNE at the present moment:

    -namely, selling on expectations, that prices will not go substantially higher

    ...despite light NYSE volume, the SPX 500 crawled higher to intraday *1048 and the trading day ended with a typical weak weekend finish *1042

    NYSE Up Volume 130.9 243.2 264.3 [278.5] 299.4 373.5 586.5
    NYSE Down Volume 76.0 152.3 256.9 [2359.6] 428.6 475.8 688.1

    again, a new recovery High for the SPX 500 on a up/down volume ratio: -0.92

    ...index top-hunting just does not make sense at the moment, but neither does the fundamental state of the SPX 500 (leaving the liquidity injections responsible for this rally aside)

    ...maybe the market will go for a slight sell-off next week, in which case *1026 should act as a short term floor from which the index is likely to target Oct 7 High *1075;

    ...looking further out, it will take some time, but the SPX 500 so far is on track to achieve *1100, but a market top becomes more and more likely as the index pushes towards the 50% retracement of the 2008-2009 Break *1119

    ...as far as the US Long Bond Market goes: ---Treasury yields tumbled to 2-month low---

    Trading Strategy: sideline (safest);
    -hedge: neutral to bullish bias to *1018/*1044/*1100; no equity exposure;
    -hedge: short 10% equity covered; short bias (+); with equity exposure;

    Long Term: THE BEAR

    _no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_

    Kind Regards
    Last edited by ananda77; 12-09-2009 at 02:06 PM.

  10. #500
    Senior Member ananda77's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dr_Who View Post
    I have a feeling this market wants to come down.
    The market is now factoring the best case scenario. Any bad news will be a good reason for a sell down.
    “Stock price direction is a function of several factors; valuation, future expectations, sentiment and liquidity.” Kevin Lane

    Where is the market at the moment (see attachment)

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